Projected ADP Risers - RBs to Target in Early Drafts

May 21, 2019

Jason Katz examines running backs that could see their ADP rise throughout the 2019 offseason in fantasy football drafts. These RB could be undervalued picks in early drafts.

Welcome to part two of a new series on fantasy football ADPs. Here, we will take a look at the current state of ADPs and predict which players are going to see their ADPs rise between now and the heart of draft season late August/early September. You can find my take on QB and TE right here.

Understanding where player ADPs are headed can be beneficial in all league formats. A rising ADP naturally corresponds with an increase in overall value. This can provide you with the knowledge regarding what players to buy low on in keeper/dynasty leagues. If you are in a redraft league that drafts early, perhaps before the preseason, you can use this information to really stack your team with assets that you are confident will be more valuable in just a few short weeks after your draft.

Let's look at the RBs that should see their ADPs rise over the summer. Note: *All ADP data can be found here. To compare with our own RotoBaller rankings, check right here.

Lamar Miller, Houston Texans

Current ADP: 72, RB31

I must preface this by stating that I do not like Lamar Miller. I have made this well known over the past three years. I think he is a replacement level running back that does not do anything special. With that being said, he is currently being drafted behind players with highly questionable workloads and situations. The Texans have done nothing at the running back position. Miller's backup, D'Onta Foreman, is coming off a torn Achilles, which is nearly impossible to recover from as a running back. 2019 will be Miller's last year with the Texans and they very well may run him into the ground. They have nothing to lose.

Miller could see 300 touches on an above average offense. He may not do much with those touches, but volume is king. Miller can easily compile his way to RB2 numbers. Fantasy owners will realize this and propel Miller up about a round, maybe two. He should jump Tevin Coleman and Derrius Guice, at least. I am shocked to see him behind David Montgomery, but I'm cognizant enough to know that rookie delusions of grandeur is never going away. Miller is never going to win you your league, but he's going to be a safe, reliable fantasy starter.

Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay

Current ADP: 145, RB51

I guess this is a recurring theme: replacement-level running backs that are being ignored. Peyton Barber is also nothing special, but RB51? Seriously people? How are there pure backups with no real path to fantasy usefulness going ahead of the Bucs starting running back? How is Ronald Jones going ahead of Barber? Jones has no talent. He is sub-replacement level and proved that last season. He belongs on a practice squad, at best.

Barber played 16 games last season and couldn't amass 1,000 yards. He's not going to be anything more than a fantasy RB3. But right now you can get him as your RB5! I'll take him for the price of free. Barber's ADP is going to jump at least two rounds just because he's a running back that is going to touch the ball over 200 times. You can do worse than Barber on the back of your bench.

Matt Breida, San Francisco

Current ADP: 164, RB54

How quickly we forget that Matt Breida was the most productive running back on the 49ers last season with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Granted this was after Jerick McKinnon went down, but nevertheless, Breida has proven he can handle a heavy workload. The 49ers signed Tevin Coleman and McKinnon may be healthy right now, but neither of them have been the pinnacle of health over the years. I find it very difficult to believe Breida is going to just be left in the dust. His role may start out small, but all it takes is one injury in front of him and he's back to being useful.

Breida has enough of a track record and is too talented to remain this late of a pick. He won't reach the single digits absent a preseason injury to Coleman or McKinnon, but Breida should find himself at least in the 140s. You will have a hard time finding a running back with more plausible upside this late in drafts.

More Fantasy Football Analysis