RADIO
Aaron Nola 2022 Player Outlook: Underlying Numbers Suggests Bounce-Back
3 years agoA look at Aaron Nola's 2021 numbers might have you wondering if he's worth his current ADP (~42). A look at his underlying numbers will give you the answer. Yes, he is. Nola's 4.63 ERA was the second-highest he's ever posted in a single season (4.78 in 2016) and markedly worse than the 3.23 ERA he's posted over the last four seasons combined. But Nola had a 3.37 xERA, 3.37 xFIP and 3.26 SIERA. Among pitchers with 150+ IP last season, he ranked tied-12th in xERA, ninth in xFIP and sixth in SIERA. Nola also had an excellent strikeout rate, with his 29.8% K% being his highest over a full season and ranked in the 86th percentile. Nola's 5.2% BB% was also a career best and ranked in the 92nd percentile. After making 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season, Nola made 32 starts in 2021, following 33 and 34 starts in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Nola is being drafted as a late SP1/early SP2 and if you take hitting in the first two or three rounds in your draft, Nola will make a perfect first addition to your fantasy rotation and should be an early-round target in drafts.
