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The loss of Dez Bryant to a salary disagreement and Jason Witten to ESPN leaves a huge hole in the Dallas Cowboys receiving ranks. The signing of Allen Hurns will help fill the void, but so will the drafting of rookie Michael Gallup.
The problem is everyone is enamored by Gallup to the point where he is being thought of as the next Dez Bryant or Odell Beckham Jr. in dynasty leagues and drafted as a WR4 in redraft leagues. Someone will have to come in and immediately take over the number one receiver role for Dak Prescott after all and Gallup is the best choice, right?
As the saying from the great Lee Corso goes, “Not so fast my friend!”
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If this in fact does happen, it does not mean good things for Dallas. For one, it means the acquisition of Hurns from the Jacksonville Jaguars has not worked out to the benefit of the team. It also likely means Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams are also having down seasons. With the tight end position seemingly up for grabs between Geoff Swaim, Rico Gathers, Dalton Schultz and rookie Blake Jarwin, who looks to be the early favorite for the job, this makes a viable fantasy pick impossible to make before we see the preseason action.
Knowing this, we also know the affinity Prescott had for using Witten and he will continue to use the position as a first option in the pass game when the ball is not going to Ezekiel Elliott out of the back field or on dump-offs. The wide receiver position becomes less important and being at best the second option in the now even further reduced position in the offense, will lead to much disappointment taking Gallup as a low-ceiling, low-floor flier.
While Michael Gallup may very well be a special talent coming out of Colorado State, he will take time to get in to the groove in the NFL as the defenses of the Mountain West conference are not comparable to those in the NFL. At 6’1 and 205 lbs, he does not possess quite the same target size as the slightly bigger Bryant. Not to mention his arm length of 31 1/2 inches is far shorter than the 34 inches measured by Bryant at the combine.
All these facts lead to a simple conclusion. The conclusion being, if Michael Gallup is not a freak talent, which is safe to say being he went as the 17th pick in the third round, he will struggle in finding fantasy status in a run first offense led by a player who is a true freak talent in Ezekiel Elliott.
In the last four seasons, we have truly become blind to the fact most receivers do not fulfill their potential in the first season. The likes of Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Thomas have left us feeling we can get the same production from a rookie you can get out of a veteran at the same draft capital. OBJ is a generational talent who catches passes from a Super Bowl-winning quarterback and Thomas jumped into an ideal situation with the pass-happy Saints and Drew Brees at QB. Gallup doesn't have those same luxuries.
With a current ADP of 164 in drafts, a shot should be taken on other players with less reliance on everything falling their way for a solid outcome. A player like Dede Westbrook with an ADP of 233 or Geronimo Allison at ADP 169, are much safer plays, with both a higher ceiling and floor than Gallup. The hype for some players is bonafide with opportunity and stats such as with Saquon Barkley or Derrius Guice. But when it comes to a third-round wide receiver going to a team who is going to be one of the league leaders in rushing behind a great offensive line, you may want to take a second look before you buy in.
