December 7, 2017

Leo assesses fantasy basketball value on hot streaking NBA players in Week 8.

Heat check! It happens all the time—a player in rhythm pulls up from three feet behind the arc and lets it fly. Swish. Then you’re left wondering whether you should ride the hot hand in your lineup or bench him after a supposedly unrepeatable performance.

Here’s an analysis to help you decide. We’ll look at some surging players and try to make an educated guess on whether their recent level of play is sustainable or not. Then we’ll suggest some trades that we think offer realistic fair value in return for these hot streaks.

Let's dive in and take a look at some players that have been heating up.

NBA Heat Check

Donovan Mitchell, SG/PG, Utah Jazz

Selected as the 13th pick of the 2017 draft, Donovan Mitchell has been given the keys to the Utah Jazz and he’s making the most of the opportunity. Last Friday, he put up a monster stat line of 41 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists while shooting 13 of 25 from the field with six three-pointers and 9 of 11 from the free throw line. The last time a rookie put up over 40 points was 2011 by Blake Griffin. He’s in good company so far, but rookies are also notoriously streaky. A week before that incredible performance, he had four points on 1 of 10 shooting in 26 minutes played. Nevertheless, those poor shooting nights are likely going to become the exception rather than the norm.

In his first 12 games of the season, he averaged 12.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.2 steals on 34.5% from the field. In the next 13 games, he averaged 21.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.6 steals on 46.9% from the field. Although the surge does conveniently coincide with Rudy Gobert’s injury and absence, Mitchell’s average usage rate was 34.2% the past two games even with Gobert joining the lineup. Granted, Gobert is playing limited minutes, but now that the rookie has proven that he can handle larger loads there’s no doubt that the coach will be forced to get Mitchell more looks at the basket. It would definitely be hard to part with Mitchell’s upside, but Khris Middleton might be a slight reach as a trade target who will give you similar stats. If the owner doesn’t bite, Gary Harris is a good alternative who still has room to grow within his team.

Alec Burks, SG, Utah Jazz

Over his last five games, Alec Burks has averaged a monster 20.8 points with a 54.5% field goal percentage, 4.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.4 steals. To put that in reference, his career points average is just 10.1 per game. In cases like his, it’s best to pump the brakes on expectations and assume the recent deviation won’t be sustainable. There have been no sudden changes to his game or his circumstances to warrant such a drastic increase in his production. Over his seven-year career, he’s scored 20 or more points just 30 times. He’s no stranger to high scoring games but he’s also never been able to keep it together over the course of more than a couple games.

Even more unfortunate is that he plays the same position as rookie Donovan Mitchell who’s been trending up in a huge way. Out of the Jazz’s five most utilized lineups, Mitchell makes an appearance in three of them while Burks only appears only once. Burks’ appearance also just so happens to be one of the two lineups where Mitchell doesn’t play. He’s an obvious sell high, and you might be able to snag an end-of-bench player who has the potential to become a decent rotation player for your team. Kris Dunn is a young guard still trying to figure it out and Wesley Matthews is a proven three-point specialist. Burks will be droppable in a few games while they might have more lasting value.

Dwyane Wade, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers

Dwyane Wade is in the midst of a resurgence. As a 15-year veteran, his old and hobbled knees have been a constant nuisance in recent years. But on Monday he posted a stat line of 24 points on 9 of 13 shooting, 6 rebounds and 2 assists. This game topped off a nine-game surge where he averaged 16.7 points on 52.3% from the field, 4.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks. This is especially surprising because of his extremely lethargic start to the season. But even looking back to just last year, he was averaging 18.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.4 steals. He’s not completely washed up, contrary to popular belief.

The concerning stat this season has been his average of 23.6 minutes played per game, compared to 29.9 last year. The Cavaliers have the luxury of playing in the East, meaning they’re almost a sure lock for a top seed in the playoffs. They’ll be able to hold Wade’s minutes to keep him fresh for an 82-game season that only gets longer for him each year. Nevertheless, he’s been an important rotation player for the Cavaliers, especially off the bench. He’s featured in three of the Cavaliers’ six most played five-man lineups. Playing off the bench is new for Wade and his hot streak shows that he’s adjusting well. You should view him with cautious optimism with around the same level of value as Austin Rivers and Darren Collison.

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