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Todd McGill's DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2025 American Express at the Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, and The Nicklaus Tournament Course. Picks for daily fantasy golf based on course history
The PGA Tour is moving back to the mainland after a couple of weeks on the islands of Hawaii. This week in La Quinta, CA, 156 players will tee it up at the famed PGA West and its associated facilities for the American Express. A tournament seemingly on the short-list of events that could go away soon as the professional golf machine continues to revamp its operations ahead of next season, which will also include smaller fields, stricter eligibility, and a reduced number of Tour members.
Beginning in 1960, the American Express Championship has been hosted at several venues over the years and under a slew of names; most notably, the Bob Hope Classic, which used to feature 90 holes of competition instead of the traditional 72-hole event before it transitioned to a standard tournament in 2012. PGA West has been the official host of this event since 2016, which gives us plenty of course history to sink our teeth into.
Horse For The Course is an article highlighting players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For some of the favorite DFS plays of the week check, out the Core Four article written by my buddy, Joe Nicely here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: TDG for an extra discount at checkout!
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2025 American Express
The site of Nick Dunlap's improbable victory last season as an amateur, all eyes will be on the young 21-year-old as he secured a top-10 finish last week at Waialae and comes in this week as the 32nd-ranked player in the world and has a chance to become just the second person in tournament history to win this event in consecutive seasons (Johny Miller in '75 & '76). He'll have a lot of firepower to overcome though, as this field features several Tour stars looking to start their year off strong.
Featuring a three-course rotation, players this week are at least assured three competitive rounds before the final day concludes at the Stadium Course on Sunday. Making it an excellent place to knock off the rust for those who didn't play in Hawaii the past two weeks. Scores for this event linger around the -25 under-par range, so it isn't a place to take the foot off the gas.
With the changes made to the PGA Tour's overall framework, one large focus—both this week and next—is the Aon Swing 5 leaderboard for the first two Signature Events of the season, which are coming up in a couple of weeks. J.J. Spaun, Patrick Fishburn, Adam Schenk, and Jackson Suber hold the top four spots, with a four-way tie for the final entry. So, there's plenty to look out for over the next couple of tournaments.
You can find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles and Player News/Matchup Outlook Posts to help you win big!
The Courses: Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta C.C., Nicklaus Tournament Course
Par 72 - 7,060-7,210 yards | Greens: Tifdwarf Bermuda | Designed By: Pete Dye (Stadium Course) Lawrence Hughes (La Quinta), Jack Nicklaus (Tournament Course)
By now, you have surely realized that this week's event will feature three different venues. However, there is one common strategy among them that players will need to accomplish to have success. Make a ton of birdies.
All three are easy pickings for these elite players, ranking among the lowest scoring averages for Tour venues year after year. The Stadium Course receives most of the acclaim, as guys who make the cut will return there to play the final round on Sunday, but all three facilities are highly renowned. Grass types and the overall theme of each course are roughly the same, but the changes come when looking at the architecture and use of penalty areas and bunkering.
This tournament typically lends itself to strong wedge play and performance on the par-5s, though avoiding the impressive bunkering and water hazards around the three courses can be equally as important. The Tournament Course features five holes affected by water compared to seven holes on the other two layouts, but when it comes around, players will have to worry about finding the drink from start to finish.
Recent American Express Winners
- 2024: Nick Dunlap (-29)
- 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
- 2022: Hudson Swafford (-23)
- 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
- 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
The Horse
Sungjae Im
- Notable Finishes: T10 ('20), T11 ('22), T12 ('19 & '21)
Normally, a top-10 finish wouldn't justify the top spot in this article, but Sungjae Im's track record at the AmEx is as consistent as anything from any other player in the field. He hasn't finished better than 10th at this event, but the South Korean hasn't finished worse than T25 in six consecutive starts, either.
He looked exceptional at Kapalua two weeks ago, where he rode strong play off the tee as well as on and around the greens to a solo third-place finish.
The Ponies
Sam Burns
- Notable Finishes: T6 ('24 & '20), T11 ('23)
SAM BURNS. GOLF SHOT FROM THE ROCKS!! pic.twitter.com/cfI6YjLGLK
— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) July 25, 2024
It's been an impressive run for Sam Burns at the AmEx, with only one missed cut in five starts and a placement finish no worse than T18. With +1.398 total strokes gained in 14 rounds over the three courses, the former LSU Tiger has one of the best resumes at this event, especially one without a win.
He has also played well as of late, with a T15 finish at the Hero in December and following it up with a T8 at Kapalua to start 2025.
Burns' bugaboo course has been at La Quinta C.C. where he only sports a strokes gained versus expectation total of +0.50 compared to nearly +2.00 on the other two courses. But even still, he's finding ways to get under par there; just not as low as most of the field.
Keith Michell
- Notable Finishes: T9 ('24)
That's why they call him Cashmere Keith 🎯@K_M_Mitchell made a hole-in-one during a celebrity challenge last week @WWTChampionship 👏 pic.twitter.com/LYITJyb7rg
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 12, 2024
Where there are Bermuda greens, there is Keith Mitchell. Perhaps the biggest M.O. of the 33-year-old's game is his affection for putting on the grainy surfaces that hotter climates typically employ. The interesting thing about this tournament is how strokes gained putting numbers affect the overall score less than the average Tour event given the strict need to be dialed in off the tee and with wedges.
Those are the stats Killa Keith is better known for, however, his four-straight missed cuts to close out last season doesn't exactly instill confidence considering how badly he was bleeding strokes with his ball striking (averaged -1.92 strokes gained on approach and -0.84 strokes gained off the tee in three of his last four events in 2024). He can catch fire as quickly as anyone, so another high finish this week is possible, but my money won't be on it.
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Tom Hoge
- Notable Finishes: 2nd ('22), T6 ('20)
PHENOMENAL HOLE-OUT EAGLE BY TOM HOGE! 🤯🦅
📺 Golf Channel | @SonyOpenHawaii pic.twitter.com/Bd9OXq3pSx
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 10, 2025
Making his 10th start in this event, Tom Hoge is looking to keep his strong start to the season going with a T8 already on the books at Kapalua and a strong first-round leader performance at Waialae before fading away over the next three days. He has performed well in most areas of his game, though has struggled off the tee, as he typically does.
The interesting thing to note here is that in all of his starts at PGA West, he's only lost strokes off the tee twice. Unless he completely lost something last week in Hawaii, a bounce-back performance should be in store.
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