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Analyzing MLB starting lineup trends and emerging fantasy baseball sleepers for Week 20 (2024). Kevin reviews batting order changes, playing time, and platoons.
It's now Week 20 in the fantasy baseball world, and crazy things continue to happen, including Kyle Schwarber hitting more home runs in one game (three) than Kris Bryant of my Colorado Rockies has hit all season (two). Watching your superstars have a bad week in your starting lineup makes you tough, but watching your team's biggest name knock in so few RBI this season (15) that you're not even sure he'd provide value to the Chicago White Sox is what truly builds character in a baseball fan. But I digress.
In this article, we'll go over some of the trends we're seeing with platoon hitters, notable playing time changes, and batting order notes. We'll focus on a couple of players for each section and provide some added depth and insight to help you build your lineup.
If there are players who you'd like to see covered or discussed that fit any of the criteria below, feel free to hit me up on X! Now, let's get to it.
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Platoon Player Updates for Fantasy Baseball
Wilyer Abreu - OF, Boston Red Sox
A sneaky candidate for AL Rookie of the Year, Abreu has made the most of his platoon role with the Red Sox, surging their offense for an 184 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Platooning almost strictly against righties, four of his eight homers on the season have come in his last 16 games. This lefty is heating up at the right time.
Never needed a Wilyer Abreu hot streak more in my life.
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) July 27, 2024
The big worry when looking at Abreu's stats is his season-long .363 wOBA is tied to a .331 xwOBA, so he's got negative regression coming his way soon. That .331 xwOBA is still in the 62nd percentile, though, so with negative regression, we should still expect above-average production from the 25-year-old. If he's on your waiver wire, then snag him up immediately and ride that hot streak.
Alek Thomas - OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Thomas is a different type of candidate than we normally put here. I'll usually try to highlight someone who's on a hot streak, but Thomas, for the most part, hasn't been. However, he's got one of the biggest wOBA vs. xwOBA gaps I've seen that position him for a pretty big jump in positive regression. It makes him a really stealthy under-the-radar waiver wire pickup for those in deeper leagues, especially since he's a lefty platooning against righties and will get more at-bats that way. He missed most of the first half of the season with a hamstring injury. And because of it, you're likely to find him on your waiver wire.
ALEK COMES THROUGH. 😤 pic.twitter.com/V7b84ouZdM
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) July 13, 2024
As for that gap I mentioned earlier, Thomas has a .280 wOBA and a .344 xwOBA coming into Thursday night's game. With 64 points of positive regression, that's a pretty huge jump and a lot of potential. Take advantage of him being on your waiver wire and stash him on your bench until that hot streak pops up.
Other platoon names to keep an eye on:
Gavin Lux - 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jarred Kelenic - OF, Atlanta Braves
Playing Time Updates for Fantasy Baseball
Xavier Edwards - SS, Miami Marlins
With all the roster turnover in Miami, it's given quite a few players more chances to get into the game and show what they've got. The player who's arguably shown the most for the Marlins is switch-hitting Xavier Edwards, a shortstop who's hitting for a 157 wRC+. A 160 wRC+ vs lefties, a 157 wRC+ vs righties, it doesn't matter what side of the plate he's hitting from. The dude just hits.
Since 7/5, Xavier Edwards is T-11th in MLB in fWAR (1.5)
He’s also good for:
• T-3rd in the NL in fWAR
• 1st in NL batting average (2nd in MLB behind Witt Jr.)
• 1st in NL OBP (2nd in MLB behind Judge)
• 5th in NL wRC+
• T-3rd in MLB w/ 11 SB🗣️ MY franchise player pic.twitter.com/nNsxwpy5vH
— Alex Ferrer (@PastyA_) August 5, 2024
Although I'm highlighting a homer here in the tweet above, Edwards isn't exactly a power hitter. Of his 48 hits on the season, only eight of them are for extra bases, with just one home run. Think of him as a little of a Luis Arraez replacement for Miami. It's partially why his .397 wOBA is paired with a .316 xwOBA, telling us negative regression is coming hard for the 25-year-old. Don't let that sway you from snagging him on your waiver wire if he's available, but do know he's not going to give you value from extra-base hits. He'll still get plenty of balls in play. And with a club like Miami willing to give its young guys chances, Edwards will continue to get plenty of playing time until the end of the season. Roll with him until that hot streak cools.
Juan Yepez - 1B, Washington Nationals
With the Nationals demoting Joey Meneses to Triple-A Rochester in early July, Juan Yepez was called up to take his place at first base, and the 26-year-old is taking full advantage of the newfound playing time in a low-stress environment. With a 150 wRC+ in 121 plate appearances since he was promoted, he ranks as the second-best qualified hitter on the Nationals in that timeframe, behind only Luis Garcia Jr. (172 wRC+).
Juan Yepez big boy bomb pic.twitter.com/c4vqzSlilb
— Dillard Barnhart (@BarnHasSpoken2) August 7, 2024
Similar to Edwards, Yepez has quite a large gap between his wOBA (.386) and xwOBA (.324), which points towards a lot of negative regression coming. His .375 BABIP points to the same warning signs. As always, I suggest riding him until the hot streak cools. But beware that the production you see now won't be what you get for the fantasy playoffs. Use him to get you that playoff spot, and have a solid plan for your roster in the playoffs when that negative regression comes for him.
Other names to keep an eye on who is now receiving more playing time:
Amed Rosario - OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ramon Urias - 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Batting Order Changes for Fantasy Baseball
Logan O'Hoppe - C, Los Angeles Angels
Due to yet another low-stress environment due to yet another non-competitive season in Los Angeles, O'Hoppe has recently been bumped up in the order from the five spot to the three-hole. From a fantasy perspective, this isn't a giant change, though he should benefit from a few more at-bats per week. He's been cold in August but had a solid July, hitting for a .793 OPS. His .352 xwOBA ranks the highest on the Angels' roster among qualified hitters, making him a priority for fantasy managers to get into their lineups.
AND HE DOES IT AGAIN🔨🚀@Angels I #RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/kqPiqm4uw2
— Bally Sports West (@BallySportWest) July 10, 2024
With that .352 xwOBA, he's got a .331 wOBA. We're back to finding options with positive regression coming! Don't worry about his current August slump, as he'll be out of it soon. His promotion to the third spot should get him more chances to break out of it, and when he does, you'll be happy.
Jackson Chourio - OF, Milwaukee Brewers
After tinkering with the idea of having Chourio at the top of the lineup for a little, it's become a more permanent fixture of the Brewers' lineup over the past week. The 20-year-old has gone back and forth, hitting in the leadoff spot and the two-hole. Regardless of the spot, it's a big jump up from where he's generally hit at the bottom of Milwaukee's lineup. And after a monster day in Atlanta on Thursday, the rookie now has multiple hits in five straight games.
Jackson Chourio is the youngest player in Milwaukee's MLB history to have a 2-HR game since Hank Aaron.
The @Brewers outfielder is also the first to go deep twice in a contest before his 21st birthday since 2019: https://t.co/4kMDwAcosf pic.twitter.com/xVEDNcZxpG
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 8, 2024
With a .319 wOBA and a .314 xwOBA on the season, his results are fairly true, so there's not much of a luck factor here to play off of. But with his current hot streak where he's obliterating everything and everyone in front of him, and with his promotion to the top of the lineup, he needs to be in yours. If you haven't been capitalizing on his run, do so now.
Other players to keep an eye on for batting order changes:
Ian Happ - OF, Chicago Cubs
Colton Cowser - OF, Baltimore Orioles
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