Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Divisional Round Busts - Overvalued Players to Avoid In Fantasy Football

Eight teams remain alive in the chase to win the Super Bowl after a Wild Card Round that featured three home teams -- the Texans, the Ravens, and the Bears -- all lose. That leaves us with some matchups in this round that don't look great on paper, but that should provide some compelling football.

This is also the last week where you have four games to choose from when playing DFS. Sure, you're going to play during the conference championship games, but this is the last time you have enough games to choose from to actually feel like you're playing the fantasy game still. Who should you end up leaving out of those lineups? I've picked one guy from each team who I'm avoiding this weekend when building my own DFS lineups, with some reasons why I don't love their matchups.

Here are eight lineup busts and avoids for the NFL's Divisional Round.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!


Top Eight Busts - NFL Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts: Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins (Running Back)

I spent a long time debating if any of the regulars on this Colts offense were worth mentioning this week, but the Chiefs defense has a whole lot of weaknesses and this game is likely to be a shootout, so instead, I'm going another way with this. Hines and Wilkins shouldn't be thought of as under-the-radar picks this week, as last week's usage suggest that neither is a big enough part of this offense. Marlon Mack was on the field for 81 percent of offensive snaps, while Hines and Wilkins sat at 12 and 10 percent. Wilkins touched the ball twice; Hines didn't receive any touches. This is Marlon Mack's backfield.

Kansas City Chiefs: Sammy Watkins (Wide Receiver)

The Colts allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers during the regular season, and while I mostly trust Tyreek Hill to play well and last week showed that the Colts can struggle against slot receivers, the likely return of Sammy Watkins doesn't raise a single "oh, is he actually a sleeper this week" thought in me. Yes, he had six games with 50 or more yards last season, but this matchup with the Colts should be a rough one. I was reading this article by Matt Verderame about the Colts defense and how it matches up with the Chiefs, and one of the main takeaways is that the Colts defense can do a good job of preventing things over the top, but they struggle against tight ends and plays underneath the coverage. They should be able to contain Watkins.

Dallas Cowboys: Cole Beasley (Wide Receiver)

Beasley is dealing with an ankle sprain and was limited to 41 percent of the Cowboys' offensive snaps in the Wild Card Round. He's officially listed as questionable ahead of Saturday's game, and while it wouldn't be a surprise to see him suit up, another game of limited usage is likely in store. The Rams have been susceptible to big plays by wide receivers, but it's more likely to be Michael Gallup who benefits from occupying the "being covered by Marcus Peters" role.

Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff (Quarterback)

The last time Jared Goff stepped onto an NFL field, he threw for four touchdown passes, but the four games before that featured Goff tossing two touchdowns and six interceptions. Now, he takes on a Cowboys defense that was holding opposing quarterbacks to the ninth-fewest fantasy points in the league during the regular season and that held Russell Wilson to just one touchdown pass in the first round.

Los Angeles Chargers: Hunter Henry (Tight End)

Henry will make his season debut on Sunday, and while a healthy Henry is better than Antonio Gates at this point, it's worth looking at how inconsistent Gates has been this year as a model for what Henry's usage could be on Sunday. Will he immediately jump into a starring role on this team in a road playoff game? Or will Rivers continue to look away from the tight end and target other pieces on the offense? And how much will Gates end up playing? Lots of question marks with Henry.

New England Patriots: Tom Brady (Quarterback)

Yeah, yeah, yeah...picking Tom Brady to bust in a home playoff game would have been sacrilege as recently as last season, but of all the defenses left in the playoffs, the Chargers allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, and Brady finished as the QB14, tying his lowest mark from a season in which he played all 16 games. Brady is 41 years old and it's become pretty undeniable at this point that he's slipped. While he's had his moments this year, I trust Brady less than a lot of the other quarterbacks taking the field this weekend.

Philadelphia Eagles: Darren Sproles (Running Back)

The Saints allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs during the regular season, and Sproles is coming off a 13-carry, 21-yard day against the Bears. I think the Eagles passing game should be fine this week, but I don't expect to see much action in the run game. Wendell Smallwood and Josh Adams are also avoids.

New Orleans Saints: Tight Ends

The Saints beat the Eagles 48-7 earlier in the year, but the Saints tight ends didn't have great games in that one. Josh Hill caught two passes. Dan Arnold caught two passes. Ben Watson didn't have a catch. Overall, the Eagles allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.

More Weekly Lineup Prep

More Recent Articles


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target In Week 15

In Week 14, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas were the high-end options that came through with solid performances, both finishing in the top-five even though they had fairly tough matchups. A.J. Brown finished as the No. 1 receiver on the week, scoring two touchdowns off of just seven targets, while Darius Slayton and Emmanuel Sanders... Read More

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 15

Welcome to our Week 15 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More

Woos and Boos - Starts and Sits for Week 15 Lineups

The trend of fresh faces being among the tops of the fantasy scoring leaderboard continued in Week 14. Across the skill positions, we saw players that took advantage of plus matchups and excelled for fantasy owners during the first week of the playoffs. Mitchell Trubisky and Drew Lock came out of nowhere to finish inside... Read More

Week 15 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More

Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 15 James Conner is expected to make his return this week. Devante Parker (concussion) is good to go for... Read More

Week 15-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Still doing things a little differently this week--for those of you who are still alive. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More

Week 15 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are in full swing in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning... Read More

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 15

Welcome to Week 15, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football playoffs. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More

Week 15 Panic Room: Outlooks for Slumping and Injured Players

As you set your Week 15 fantasy football playoff lineups, there may be some players who make you feel very uncomfortable about starting them. Based on recent lackluster performances, injuries, or just an intangible bad vibe, it's a struggle to insert them into your lineup in a do-or-die week. But you may also nervous be... Read More

Drew Lock: Is He Ready For Fantasy Football Playoff Consideration?

There is much excitement in Denver after Drew Lock put on an air display at Houston last week. In just his second NFL start, the rookie threw for 309 yards and three TD passes, all in the first half, as the Broncos stunned the AFC South leaders, 38-24. The final score doesn’t indicate what type... Read More

Survive and Advance: The King's Guide to Fantasy Football Playoff Sanity and Success

As the playoffs progress in the NFL every season, media coverage ramps up. By the time we get to Super Bowl week, it's become a full-blown circus. There are microphones and recorders being shoved in players' faces at every waking moment, and the questions never stop. As the fantasy football playoffs move ahead, there is... Read More

Red Zone Usage Risers and Fallers - Week 15

We are at a crucial point in the season. Hopefully, your team is still alive, but there is always an opportunity to get your team in shape before that final push! As fantasy owners, we know that not all touches are equal. A touch in the red zone has an increased chance of scoring a... Read More

QB vs Pass Rush Matchups To Watch - Week 15

Week 15 is here, and the fantasy playoffs are rolling. Some head into the fantasy semifinals as big favorites but others are scrapping to keep their season alive. Real teams start at quarterback, and the position is pretty important for fantasy as well. Quarterbacks have changed the game for fantasy football this year with guys... Read More

Inside the Tent - Week 15 NFL Injury Insight

At RotoBaller, we can't stress enough the importance of keeping up with injuries and playing your best lineup week after week. Players are going to get injured, that's an unavoidable fact. What's avoidable though is making the wrong roster decisions based on the injuries surrounding your fantasy squad. If you want to dominate your leagues... Read More

NFL Matchup Ratings Tool - Weekly Player Projections

  If you see the red "Upgrade" button below, then you are not a Premium subscriber, or have not yet logged in. Learn more about our NFL Matchup Ratings and projections system. Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of... Read More