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Divisional Round Busts - Overvalued Players to Avoid In Fantasy Football

Eight teams remain alive in the chase to win the Super Bowl after a Wild Card Round that featured three home teams -- the Texans, the Ravens, and the Bears -- all lose. That leaves us with some matchups in this round that don't look great on paper, but that should provide some compelling football.

This is also the last week where you have four games to choose from when playing DFS. Sure, you're going to play during the conference championship games, but this is the last time you have enough games to choose from to actually feel like you're playing the fantasy game still. Who should you end up leaving out of those lineups? I've picked one guy from each team who I'm avoiding this weekend when building my own DFS lineups, with some reasons why I don't love their matchups.

Here are eight lineup busts and avoids for the NFL's Divisional Round.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024 fantasy football drafts:

 

Top Eight Busts - NFL Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts: Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins (Running Back)

I spent a long time debating if any of the regulars on this Colts offense were worth mentioning this week, but the Chiefs defense has a whole lot of weaknesses and this game is likely to be a shootout, so instead, I'm going another way with this. Hines and Wilkins shouldn't be thought of as under-the-radar picks this week, as last week's usage suggest that neither is a big enough part of this offense. Marlon Mack was on the field for 81 percent of offensive snaps, while Hines and Wilkins sat at 12 and 10 percent. Wilkins touched the ball twice; Hines didn't receive any touches. This is Marlon Mack's backfield.

Kansas City Chiefs: Sammy Watkins (Wide Receiver)

The Colts allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers during the regular season, and while I mostly trust Tyreek Hill to play well and last week showed that the Colts can struggle against slot receivers, the likely return of Sammy Watkins doesn't raise a single "oh, is he actually a sleeper this week" thought in me. Yes, he had six games with 50 or more yards last season, but this matchup with the Colts should be a rough one. I was reading this article by Matt Verderame about the Colts defense and how it matches up with the Chiefs, and one of the main takeaways is that the Colts defense can do a good job of preventing things over the top, but they struggle against tight ends and plays underneath the coverage. They should be able to contain Watkins.

Dallas Cowboys: Cole Beasley (Wide Receiver)

Beasley is dealing with an ankle sprain and was limited to 41 percent of the Cowboys' offensive snaps in the Wild Card Round. He's officially listed as questionable ahead of Saturday's game, and while it wouldn't be a surprise to see him suit up, another game of limited usage is likely in store. The Rams have been susceptible to big plays by wide receivers, but it's more likely to be Michael Gallup who benefits from occupying the "being covered by Marcus Peters" role.

Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff (Quarterback)

The last time Jared Goff stepped onto an NFL field, he threw for four touchdown passes, but the four games before that featured Goff tossing two touchdowns and six interceptions. Now, he takes on a Cowboys defense that was holding opposing quarterbacks to the ninth-fewest fantasy points in the league during the regular season and that held Russell Wilson to just one touchdown pass in the first round.

Los Angeles Chargers: Hunter Henry (Tight End)

Henry will make his season debut on Sunday, and while a healthy Henry is better than Antonio Gates at this point, it's worth looking at how inconsistent Gates has been this year as a model for what Henry's usage could be on Sunday. Will he immediately jump into a starring role on this team in a road playoff game? Or will Rivers continue to look away from the tight end and target other pieces on the offense? And how much will Gates end up playing? Lots of question marks with Henry.

New England Patriots: Tom Brady (Quarterback)

Yeah, yeah, yeah...picking Tom Brady to bust in a home playoff game would have been sacrilege as recently as last season, but of all the defenses left in the playoffs, the Chargers allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, and Brady finished as the QB14, tying his lowest mark from a season in which he played all 16 games. Brady is 41 years old and it's become pretty undeniable at this point that he's slipped. While he's had his moments this year, I trust Brady less than a lot of the other quarterbacks taking the field this weekend.

Philadelphia Eagles: Darren Sproles (Running Back)

The Saints allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs during the regular season, and Sproles is coming off a 13-carry, 21-yard day against the Bears. I think the Eagles passing game should be fine this week, but I don't expect to see much action in the run game. Wendell Smallwood and Josh Adams are also avoids.

New Orleans Saints: Tight Ends

The Saints beat the Eagles 48-7 earlier in the year, but the Saints tight ends didn't have great games in that one. Josh Hill caught two passes. Dan Arnold caught two passes. Ben Watson didn't have a catch. Overall, the Eagles allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.

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