RADIO
Joe Nicely breaks down the FanDuel slate for the 2021 Valspar Championship, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.
Hello RotoBaller PGA crew! It's great to be back with you guys and I appreciate you joining us here at RotoBaller!
In this article we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the 2021 Valspar Championship. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges, breaking the groups down into "High", "Mid", and "Low" price options that are worth considering.
Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
Valspar Championship - PGA DFS Overview
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
7,340 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bermuda - Designer: Larry Packard
Located in Palm Harbor, Florida, the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort is the type of course that could hold a PGA Championship next week and no one would raise an eyebrow. It is a quality golf course and one that routinely ranks as one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour schedule. It's many undulations are unique for a Florida course. Players in this field will face tight, tree-lined fairways, tough doglegs, and greens that are hard to hit. They must also tackle 'The Snake Pit'...the Copperhead's daunting closing three-hole stretch. This is a less-than-driver course for the bombers, but there are four Par-5's for them to gun at. Interestingly, there are FIVE Par-3's on this layout, which almost forces us to look at something we rarely give much weight to in this article; Par-3 Scoring. As usual, ball striking is a trait we want to target and the facet of the game I'm giving the most weight to this week. A players' short game and ability to scramble will also be tested this week.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Copperhead | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 270 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 61% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 60% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 58% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.54 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Proximity
- Par 3 Scoring (200+ Yards)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drives Gained
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.
High-Priced FanDuel DFS Plays
Justin Thomas ($12,300)
This will be the first time we've seen Justin Thomas since the Masters. JT was in the thick of things at Augusta before a Saturday implosion basically ended his tournament. He's now had time to shake off that blow up and heads into this week as the most elite DFS play on the board. Thomas possesses all the tools needed to succeed on this major-championship-esque Copperhead layout...he ranks first in this Valspar field in SG: Approach and Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds, while also grading out sixth in Bogeys Avoided. He's posted a T10 and a T18 in three career Valspar starts. We know the putter can come and go with JT, but if he putts just "average" this week, he should be in the mix to win this event thanks to his world-class ability from tee to green.
Dustin Johnson ($12,200)
A surprising missed cut at the Masters reinforced the notion that "2021 DJ" is nowhere near "2020 DJ". Despite a win at the Saudi International early this year, Johnson has looked unquestionably sluggish for the majority of his U.S. starts. However...Johnson will not lie dormant forever and we glimpsed some signs of life in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage where he posted a T13, his best finish in nearly two months. Despite that encouraging result, there are still concerns with his iron play (he lost strokes on Approach at Harbour Town), an area of his game that he'll undoubtedly need to find success at the Valspar. I would still label DJ "riskier than normal" this week, but he's historically thrived on difficult golf courses and we know that his game is going to come around at some point.
Patrick Reed ($11,600)
Patrick Reed has always been - and continues to be - a statistical enigma. A glance at his ball-striking numbers on any given week would make you think he's lucky to be a top-50 player in the world. However, Reed has consistently defied statistical logic with a world-class short game that's perhaps the best on the PGA Tour and a will to win that's borderline sociopathic. In the absence of statistical reasoning, my mantra on him for the last year has basically turned into "play Reed on tough golf courses". Copperhead certainly qualifies in that regard and his track record here reinforces the notion that the 2018 Masters champ thrives on difficult layouts, as Reed has a pair of runner-up finishes and a T7 over his last five Valspar starts.
Viktor Hovland ($11,500)
Hovland is a really intriguing piece on this salary scale. With the combination of his high price and lack of course history, I imagine that many will choose to pay up for JT or take the savings (and safety) with a Paul Casey or a Corey Conners. This makes Hovland a tremendous GPP option, as his ownership will likely be lower than it should be. This Copperhead layout is a perfect fit for him on paper, as his ball striking is consistently world-class and he grades out third in the field in SG: Ball Striking.
Paul Casey ($11,400)
One of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour for years, the knock on Paul Casey has always been his inability to actually win tournaments in the United States, but the Englishman has certainly found the winning formula at the Copperhead Course, emerging with victories in both the 2018 and 2019 editions of the Valspar. He kicked off the year with an international victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and carried that form with him to America. Prior to a T26 at the Masters, Casey had posted two top-10s and two top-fives in his four 2021 PGA Tour starts. Before the missed cut at the Heritage, he’d gained strokes T2G in his last seven U.S. starts, and he grades out 15th in this week’s field in SG: T2G over the last 12 rounds.
Corey Conners ($11,300)
We're rounding out the high-priced plays this week with a player that's perhaps my favorite option on the slate. The Canadian's game appears tailor made for the Copperhead Course, as the layout demands excellent ball striking from tee to green. Conners certainly fits that bill. He stands first in this week's Valspar field in both SG: T2G & Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds, while also grading out first in GIRs Gained and third in Good Drives Gained. He was the 54-hole leader of this event as a rookie back in 2018 before ultimately falling into a T16. I expect him to improve on that result this go around.
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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Plays
Abraham Ancer ($11,000)
Ancer doesn't have any eye-catching finishes as of late, but the Mexican just continues to pump out rock-solid top-25 results (top-26 finishes in all of his last five starts). His ball striking has been extremely steady as of late. He comes into this week ranked second in this field in SG: Ball Striking and fourth in SG: Approach. Ancer's consistent, fairways-and-greens style should translate well to this tricky Copperhead layout and he posted a T16 in his lone Valspar start in 2018.
Jason Kokrak ($10,600)
Kokrak hasn’t won at the Copperhead Course, but has nonetheless been borderline dominant in previous trips to this tough layout. He’s gone T2-T8 over his last two Valspar starts and also logged a T7 back in 2015. All told, he’s gained 23.11 strokes total over his last five appearances in this event; the sixth-most among players teeing it up this week.
In addition to the very strong course history, Kokrak heads to Palm Harbor in sparkling form. Prior to a T49 at the Masters, he’d ran off three straight top-10 finishes against elite fields in the state of Florida (WGC-Workday, API, PLAYERS). Over the last 12 measured rounds the 35-year-old grades out second in this Valspar field in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and fourth in SG: Ball Striking, while ranking inside the top-30 in all major strokes gained categories.
Cameron Tringale ($10,200)
Some really weird course history with Cameron Tringale, as he went T3-T25-T17 on the Copperhead Course between 2013 and 2015, but has missed the cut in each of his last three Valspar starts. I'm gonna lean with the recent form with him, as he's playing the best golf of his career at the moment. Tringale grades out eighth in this week's field in SG: Ball Straking and ranks inside the top-25 in every major T2G Strokes Gained category.
Chris Kirk ($9,900)
Chris Kirk offers a similar problem to Tringale...course history vs recent form. Kirk's track record at Valspar is...not good. He's failed to crack a top-40 finish in five career trips to Innisbrook. However, the UGA alum heads to this year's edition in white-hot form. Kirk has finished inside the top-eight in each of his last two starts (Valero & Heritage) and has been phenomenal in every facet of the game this year, to the tune of grading out second in this field in SG: Total.
Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Sam Burns ($9,500)
It's been something of an up-and-down year for Sam Burns. He followed a couple of Swing Season top-10s with an impressive third-place outing at the Genesis, only to look absolutely horrible in subsequent starts. The LSU product appears to be trending back up now with solid outings at the RBC Heritage and the Zurich Classic over the last two weeks. Burns brings that form to a Copperhead layout where he's went T30-T12 in two career Valspar appearances.
Charles Howell III ($9,300)
We're normally only talking about CH3 if the PGA Tour is in Hawaii or California. However, the veteran has turned in some strong performances recently after underperforming during the West Coast Swing. Howell notched a T9 at THE PLAYERS and most recently logged a T18 at the RBC Heritage. He brings that positive momentum to a golf course where he's made the cut in 12 of 14 career starts and owns a 70.81 lifetime scoring average.
Sam Horsfield ($9,000)
Here's a name that a lot of casual PGA DFS players aren't going to know. Sam Horsfield is a 24-year-old Englishman that appears to be a star in the making. He won twice on the Euro Tour last year and has carried that sharp play into 2021. In four international starts this year he has two top-fives and two top-15s. We know that success in Europe doesn't always translate to the U.S., but Horsfield actually moved to America when he was five and attended the University of Florida, so he's very familiar with the "PGA Tour style of golf". I honestly don't know that this layout is the greatest fit for his game (bombs it off the tee, great putter), but he's a unique GPP option and a player we're likely to hear a lot from in the coming years.
Doug Ghim ($8,900)
After a superstar collegiate career, Ghim's professional prospects have stumble out of the gate a bit. He's been soooo close to a having a truly breakout year, but has been plagued by horrible final rounds and abysmal putting (122nd SG: Putting...told ya it was bad). Ghim has been consistently good in the ball-striking department, ranking 11th in this field in SG: Approach and 12th in SG: Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds. That tee-to-green ability is what has him on my radar this week, as Copperhead should reward his ball-striking prowess.
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