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Running back Brian Robinson Jr.'s fantasy football value in dynasty leagues heading into 2025. Mitch Blatt evaluates Robinson and ranks him among dynasty RBs.
As a rookie, Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. was one of the inspiring stories of the 2022 NFL season. Despite being shot twice in the lower body during a robbery, Robinson recovered to make his debut in Week 5 and rushed for nearly 800 yards.
Robinson's fantasy ceiling was limited as a rookie because he only scored three touchdowns on a poor Commanders offense. He increased his touchdown total to nine in his sophomore season and had a much bigger impact in the passing game, but his rushing yardage was held down by low efficiency and a couple of missed games. Last season, the Commanders finally found their franchise quarterback.
With Jayden Daniels going into his second season and Washington adding playmakers on offense, is 2025 the season Robinson's production is going to explode? For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, rankings, and trade tactics, be sure to check out our complete Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide.
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Brian Robinson Jr. 2024 Season Review
During the 2024 offseason, the Commanders let Antonio Gibson walk but replaced him with Austin Ekeler. Initial optimism about Robinson having the backfield all to himself was replaced with uncertainty about the hierarchy of the depth chart. Robinson was only being drafted a couple of picks ahead of Ekeler in redraft.
By Week 2, Robinson was cemented as the Commanders RB1A. In the first two weeks, he carried the ball 30 times for 173 yards and a touchdown. Ekeler only carried the ball 10 times, but he had a significant role as a receiver.
Robinson ran for five touchdowns in the first five weeks of the season and had two 100-yard games. After Week 5, he ranked as the RB9 in PPR and the RB7 in standard scoring.
Then, tragedy struck. Robinson missed three of the next five games with injuries. Every week, Robinson's managers nervously watched the practice reports. Even when he was healthy, he still often left games early. In Week 12, Robinson only had five carries for 13 yards before he was sidelined with an ankle injury against the Dallas Cowboys.
Robinson did start the final seven weeks of the season, but he was underwhelming down the stretch. He only had one more 100-yard game, a 103-yard showing in Week 13 against the Tennessee Titans. He did not score a single touchdown in the last four games.
Never a great pass-catching threat, Robinson didn't add anything in that department. With Ekeler featured on passing downs, Robinson was limited to 20 receptions for 159 yards. He had one or fewer catches in nine games.
Overall, Robinson finished as the RB29 in half-point PPR, making him a reliable flex starter. He only cracked the top 12 weekly finishes twice, and he was usually on the fringe between poor RB2 and high-end RB3.
What is Brian Robinson Jr. Worth in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues?
After Robinson began the 2024 season with a surge of touchdowns, his value spiked from a low point of RB30 to RB13 by early October. When he started missing games and failing to find the end zone, his value began declining. Now, he's back at RB28, right where he was around this time last year.
The consensus values Robinson the same as a mid-to-late second-round draft pick. If you need a quarterback of the future, it might be worth it to trade Robinson for the 2.04, 2.05, or 2.06 and hope Shedeur Sanders is available there. Other incoming rookies being ranked at or after 2.06 include RB Cam Skattebo, QB Jaxson Dart, and WR Elic Ayomanor.
As for veterans, Robinson is in between Falcons TE Kyle Pitts and Cardinals RB James Conner. Considering how many touchdowns the Commanders could score this season, Robinson will most likely outperform a tight-end bust who is being phased out of his offense and an older running back on a worse offense. He has a good chance to rise in value when the season gets underway.
Brian Robinson Jr. 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Last season, the Commanders averaged 3.3 touchdowns per game, the third most in the league. Robinson averaged more than half a touchdown per game played, and that total would be even higher if he finished every game healthy. But Robinson didn't stay healthy and never has in his career, so it wouldn't be reasonable to project him to play a full 17.
Still, Robinson accounted for 14.2 percent of the Commanders' touchdowns, even with all that time missed. Only Terry McLaurin scored more touchdowns for the Commanders than Robinson did. McLaurin's 13 touchdowns were a career high by a huge margin. In each of the previous four seasons, he only scored four or five touchdowns.
With the addition of Deebo Samuel Sr., starting guard Nate Herbig, and depth tackle Foster Sarell, along with Jayden Daniels' continued development, the Commanders offense looks poised to take a step up.
If Washington becomes the leading offense in the league, it will score about 15 more touchdowns than it did last season, and Robinson would score about two more rushing touchdowns at that rate.
Robinson also has room for positive regression in his receiving output. He scored five receiving touchdowns in his first two seasons and made 43 catches in 2023, but last season, he did not score a receiving touchdown and made half as many catches.
Sources of risk for Robinson include his continued injury history. Despite missing a handful of games with lingering injuries over his career, Robinson has been fortunate not to suffer an in-season injury that forced him onto IR. Injury risk exists for every player, but Robinson seems less durable than most.
Another possible dagger could fall during the NFL Draft. Many analysts believe the Commanders could draft a running back in the first three rounds.
Robinson is not a flashy player. While his average yards per carry have increased in each year of his career, he's still only averaging 4.1 per attempt. His PFF grade lingers in the 70s. With so many talented running backs in this year's draft class, it would be tempting for the Commanders to take a swing on one.
For the foreseeable future, the Washington offense will be a strong one, and fantasy managers would do well to target Commanders players. In the best-case scenario, Robinson remains the RB1 for Washington for years to come and finds a way to stay on the field. But we cannot overlook the risk that TreVeyon Henderson will trade scarlet for burgundy and usurp Robinson's role by December.
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