Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 13 Lineups

December 6, 2020

Brandon Murchison's top starts and sits for your Week 13 fantasy football lineups - sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that may disappoint or bust.

It only took 12 weeks of action around the NFL, but the crap finally hit the fan. Between game postponements due to Covid, players being placed on reserve due to Covid, or just injuries in general, scoring for fantasy managers was affected. Throughout the season, we have been accustomed to seeing QB scoring fairly high from top to bottom. But in Week 12, we saw just five quarterbacks break the 20 FP threshold. Chalk it up to tough matchups or talent taking the week off, but it seemingly lowered scoring across the board for fantasy managers and the tough lineup decisions they faced. To show what kind of a crazy week it was, players such as Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield, and Mike Glennon all posted QB1 numbers in Week 12. We saw much of the same at the RB position, with Latavius Murray and David Montgomery both sneaking into the top-12 at the position for the week. Showing that it could be any week in which a lower-performing player on your bench can rise up and give you unexpected points.

Now that we are entering into the last week of the regular season for many fantasy leagues out there, decisions made in your starting lineup are more vital than ever. Sticking to your guns and starting your typical "stud" over a player with a better matchup could be the difference between starting a title run or sitting at home and watching the playoffs. With a slate that is currently showing a vast amount of lower game totals, Week 13 should be one that managers capitalize on every point possible. There are quite a bit of letdowns out there that could be left in lineups. But obviously, there will be matchups that need to be attacked. There will be plenty of questions out there for fantasy managers to face this week as well. Kyler Murray has brought many teams into playoff contention thus far, but will his nagging shoulder cause you to second guess him in a difficult matchup? As he's looking better over the last two games, could the risk of playing Cam Akers in a positive matchup pay off? Those are just a couple of a myriad of situations facings fantasy managers in a pivotal week.

With all these pieces in motion, fantasy managers have to trust matchup decisions more than ever. That is what we do here for you with the Woos and Boos for Week 13. We Woo the players that are typically under the radar but could shine with plus matchups. While we Boo those every week starters that could be set-up to disappoint as they face difficult situations.

Week 13 Woos

Taysom Hill @ Atlanta Falcons

Since taking over for the injured Drew Brees, Hill has paid off handsomely for fantasy managers with back-to-back QB1 finishes. But as expected he has not been getting it done as a passer (311 yards in two games). His scoring appeal has been with his legs as he leads all QBs in rushing yards (95) and touchdowns (4) over the last two games. Look for that to continue in Week 13 as he faces the suspect Falcons Defense that has been one of the worst in fantasy all year in points allowed to the position (24.4 FPPG). Although they have been playing better over the last month, they have allowed the third-most rushing yards to QBs (105 yards and three TDs). This lines up well for Hill as he should once again finish as a QB1 for fantasy managers and is a no-doubt start in Week 13.

David Montgomery vs. Detroit Lions

Montgomery returned in style for the Bears in Week 12 with an all-around solid performance on the way to an RB1 finish (143 total yards and a score). Although most of his points came in garbage time with everything out of reach for the Bears, the usage was encouraging. Especially as a pass-catcher with his five receptions. He is currently top-10 in snap share (73.8%) and targets (47), so the opportunities are there. Something he should see plenty of in Week 13 as he faces a Lions Defense that is far and away been the worst in fantasy over the last month in points allowed to the position (35.08 FPPG). No other defense has surrendered more touchdowns over the last four games, which is very encouraging for Montgomery managers in this pivotal week. He has RB1 upside in this matchup and is a solid start for those looking to lock up playoff spots.

Jarvis Landry @ Tennessee Titans

After weeks of sub-optimal play since the Odell Beckham, Landry finally came around with a WR1 performance in Week 12. After getting away from bad weather games in Cleveland, Landry thrived as his usage increased. His eight catches, 143 yards were both season highs and he got into the end-zone for the first time since Week 4. Facing the Titans in Week 13 should be an intriguing matchup for Landry. The defense has been bottom third on the season in points allowed to the position (24.9 FPPG), but have allowed just one touchdown over the last four games. They have, on the other hand, been bottom ten in receptions allowed (56) over that same span. In a game that could be back and forth, with the Browns trailing, Landry should be frequently targeted in this game. He has WR2 upside in this matchup and should be started with confidence by managers.

Jordan Akins vs. Indianapolis Colts

In the wake of the Will Fuller suspension, there is a glaring hole in the receiving hierarchy for the Texans. Although he did not register a catch in Week 12, both of his targets were in the end-zone, albeit both were drops. Now the matchup this week against the Colts Defense (4.9 FPPG) looks tough on paper, but the defense over the last four games has been near the bottom in touches allowed in the red-zone to the position. With Deshaun Watson needing to find a threat to score among his pass-catchers now, Akins could be a sneaky play for managers needing to stream the position this week with the playoffs on the line.

Week 13 Boos

Kyler Murray vs. Los Angeles Rams

Yes, Murray has gotten most of his managers in contention for playoffs spots to this point. But he may be a risky play in Week 13 as he clearly is favoring the injury to his shoulder. All that is evident over the last two games as he has produced season-lows in rushing yardage over that span (46 yards total). Now heading into Week 13, he will be facing the stout Rams Defense that is only allowing 10.21 FPPG to the position over the last month. The Rams defense is known for being extremely physical, posing a threat to Murray's lingering injury. Couple that with the team's insistence on featuring Kenyan Drake in the last two games, and the upside for Murray could be limited. Most managers will be in a position where they feel the need to play Murray this week, but with other QBs potentially with better matchups, he could be one I would sit in the right situation.

Ezekiel Elliott @ Baltimore Ravens

The time has come for Elliott managers to face the truth. He is no longer a bona-fide week-to-week play in fantasy. He has just one finish inside the top-25 since Week 6 at the position and with the continuing issues along the Cowboys offensive line, improvement should not be expected. His upside was only there as a pass-catcher, but with just seven receptions over the team's last five games, that is out the door as well. This week the Cowboys travel to Baltimore to face an angry Ravens Defense that is allowing just 14.7 FPPG to opposing RBs on the season. It is not a great feeling to sit your first-round pick in Week 13 due to poor play, but it is what it is. There will be numerous players I would put ahead of Elliott this week with better matchups and fantasy managers should do the same with the playoffs hanging in the balance.

Tyler Boyd @ Miami Dolphins

We were all left wondering last week just who would be hurt the most with the injury to Joe Burrow. Although he led the team with just six targets in Week 12, he only caught three of those for 15 yards. With Brandon Allen at QB for the Bengals, the upside for the offense as a whole is limited. In Week 13, he will be facing a Dolphins Defense that has been middle of the pack on the season in points allowed to the position (23.5 FPPG). But over the last four games, they have been better and only allowed two receiving TDs over that span. Boyd has been as consistent as they come during the 2020 season, but in a pivotal week for managers, he could be finding a spot on the bench for players with better matchups.

Noah Fant @ Kansas City Chiefs

Fant has been one of the more consistent TEs on the season in terms of targets (60) and receptions (40). But digging into the numbers just a bit more, he has been less reliable for fantasy managers for a large portion of the season as he has not recorded a TE1 finish since Week 2. Going into Week 13, assuming the Broncos get a competent QB back under center, the matchup is decent on paper. The Chiefs are middle of the pack in points allowed to the position on the season (8.1 FPPG). And over the last four games, that number has jumped to 19.03 FPPG. All the analytics look like this could be a smash game for Fant in a potential spot that the Broncos will be trailing all game. But playing on the road in Kansas City may prove to be tough for the Broncos offense in general. I have him as a fringe TE1 play for the week. The opportunities could be there for Fant, but what he has shown for the season leaves him open to being benched for a player with a higher upside in Week 13.

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