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Week 11 Waiver Wire - Starting Pitchers

Nick Mariano's starting pitcher (SP) fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and adds. Free agent pickups and starting pitcher sleepers for Week 11 of the 2018 MLB season.

With roughly two-fifths of the baseball season in the past, we’ve got plenty of data to play with and some serious questions to answer about our fantasy teams. Some of you are likely rolling reliever-heavy lineups and I respect that, but you probably won’t find much help here! Whatever your strategy may be, these arms should be able to help you!

If you want to chat more about additional arms/bats/whatever, you can find me on Twitter @NMariano53 and ask any follow-up questions.

We're using Yahoo ownership levels and cutting things off around 30% this week. Here are my starting pitcher waiver wire targets for Week 11.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets

Seth Lugo (NYM - SP/RP): 30% owned

I always hate when a guy truly breaks out on primetime television, you just know there’s going to be a waiver rush like no other. Lugo dismantled the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball, as he allowed a mere two singles and struck out eight with zero walks over six scoreless frames to end the Mets’ losing streak at eight. The key is not only his velocity jump found in the bullpen, much like what we saw from Danny Duffy, but also masterful control of his breaking pitches. The Mets are tepidly speaking about giving Lugo a real rotation slot but come on, Noah Syndergaard may not come back for a while pending this second opinion on his finger and Jason Vargas shouldn’t be stopping anyone showing signs of success from pitching. The worst-case scenario is he becomes another strong middle-relief option for you.

Mike Soroka (ATL - SP): 30% owned

Hopefully, this is the final time during Soroka’s career that I can write about him as a pickup. Soroka’s second rehab start wasn’t perfect like his first one, but he still punched out seven and gave up just one run on three hits and a walk at Triple-A. This guy has a 2.76 FIP/2.87 xFIP/3.60 SIERA underneath the 3.68 ERA in 14 ⅔ Major League innings and he had a 1.71 FIP/2.21 xFIP behind the 2.00 ERA in 27 Triple-A innings. His only surface blemish is the 1.70 WHIP in the bigs that’s solely due to a .408 BABIP that is going to fall. He can be a 3.50 ERA/1.25 WHIP guy with a 23% strikeout rate on a team that should top 90 wins and faces the Mets and Marlins offenses. Buy!!!

Clayton Richard (SD - SP): 27% owned

Remember when Richard ended his 2017 season by posting a 3.52 ERA (3.69 SIERA) and being rather useful over his final 10 starts? Well after a rocky April, Richard is back to mowing down opposing hitters with his groundball ways and now has a 3.04 ERA (3.15 SIERA) over his last seven starts. Batters are only managing to lift the ball in the air a measly 17.4% of the time in that seven-start sample and while I don’t buy a groundball guy holding onto a .230 BABIP, he’s still going to be useful with this profile even when some regression hits.

Lance Lynn (MIN - SP): 29% owned

Lynn has turned things around with four consecutive quality starts after forgetting that he was supposed to get batters out to open 2018, but I’m still not buying that his command woes are truly gone. He’s still totaled 11 walks alongside the 21 strikeouts over 24 ⅔ innings during this “resurgent” stretch and has issued four or more free passes in half of his 12 outings this season. I will say that his fastball looks livelier and he leans on his heater (and its cousin, the sinker) over 70% of the time, so that's important. His other saving grace has been avoiding homers -- he’s kept the ball in the yard over his last five starts -- but his iffy 4.23 xFIP over this four-start QS span shows what can happen if that reverses. Tread carefully!

Mike Leake (SEA - SP): 25% owned

Leake only made one mistake on Tuesday night, which was spotting a great pitch on the outer corner at the knees of Mike Trout. Outside of Trout’s solo homer, Leake was effective against the Halos and has now held opponents to two runs or fewer in each of his last five starts. The three walks were uncharacteristic given how he’d walked just two batters over his last six starts (41 innings) but that seems to be how he attacks LAA -- he walked four in his only other start against them on May 4. He had a 5.04 SIERA through that May 4 start, but he entered Tuesday with a 3.76 SIERA since then. This looks to be rooted in a nearly 10-percentage-point jump in soft contact and a 15-percentage-point spike in grounders. With Seattle surging around him and his command locked in, mixed leaguers would do well to patch their rotation with Leake.

Mike Montgomery (CHC - SP/RP): 16% owned

Montgomery’s 25 strikeouts in 43 innings thus far may leave you looking elsewhere for SP options, but I know you’re enticed by the 3.56 ERA and the 1.16 WHIP. The southpaw has always been good at inducing low-quality contact and has a career .268 BABIP for this reason, but his 28.5% soft-contact rate is on another level right now. Not only that, but his 10% swinging-strike rate implies more whiff potential than his shaky 14.2% strikeout rate. He may be out of the rotation once Yu Darvish returns (if he returns, let’s be real) but I don’t see how the Cubbies can boot Monty from the rotation with Tyler Chatwood looking to break walk records.

Dylan Covey (CWS - SP/RP): 10% owned

If you remember anything about Covey from 2017 then you probably want nothing to do with him. I can’t blame you, the man had a 7.71 ERA and 5.64 SIERA with a poor 13.3% strikeout rate in 70 innings. That makes for one terrible cup o’ coffee.

But Covey looks very different this season to those watching carefully because now he’s throwing 95 mph and suddenly has command. The 26-year-old is carrying a 2.22 ERA with a 3.62 SIERA at the moment and his strikeout rate has climbed 10 percentage points to 23.3% overall. And no, he hasn’t been beating up on the Royals or anything -- he’s gone against the Indians, Brewers and Red Sox in his last three trips to the hill. Strong mechanics can take a middling option and help him evolve into a viable one. No parlor tricks or new pitch here, just good ol’ refining the raw product.

Paul Blackburn (OAK - SP): 3% owned

Blackburn allowed just one run on three hits over six strong innings in his 2018 debut, but he has his fantasy fleas. Namely, the three strikeouts in those six frames gives him a higher strikeout rate (15%) than his awful 9.2% K rate through 10 starts (58 ⅔ IP) last season. He’s barely broken the 6.0 K/9 mark even in the low Minors, but he sports solid command and suppresses the long ball with a beastly groundball rate that can sniff 60%. Oakland’s spacious home park and strong defense play well for his game and he could be a cheap source of ratio relief if you can take the K hit.

Jonathan Loaisiga (NYY - SP): N/A

Yeah, I still don’t feel like I spelled that correctly. The Yankees are in need of a starter with Masahiro Tanaka on the DL for the foreseeable future and it was confirmed on Tuesday night that Loaisiga, who is still not in Yahoo's player pool last I checked, would be getting at least one turn in a spot start on Thursday. He’s had a solid campaign thus far at Double-A, but you’ll need to put on your sabermetric glasses to see it. The 23-year-old has ridden his fastball-curveball-changeup combo to an xFIP below 2.00 in 10 starts between High- and Double-A, but his 4.32 ERA from Double-A has people sneering. Don’t be those people. Be the people who see 58 strikeouts to just four walks across 45 innings for a youngster who will have the Yankees’ offense and bullpen supporting him. That’s worth a lot.

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
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