Well-Known Fantasy Baseball Players - Drop, Hold, or Sell Low? (Week 18)

One of the hardest things in fantasy baseball to determine is when the right time is to drop a player. With a long season, it's important not to overreact to rough stretches. Every hitter or pitcher goes through them, so fantasy managers definitely need some patience throughout the year.

However, time is ticking for several players as we head into Week 18 of the MLB season. There are only a couple more weeks left of the fantasy regular season, and it might be time to drop or sell certain players.

So, here is what fantasy managers should do with these five well-known fantasy players in Week 18. All five of these players are rostered in more than 75% of Yahoo! leagues.

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Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies was not supposed to be on this list this week, but he then fractured his wrist on Sunday. According to reports, Albies is now expected to miss eight weeks while nursing that wrist injury. So, the earliest we can expect him back is the middle of September.

As a result, it might be time for some fantasy managers to cut bait with the slugging second baseman. Assuming there are no setbacks and Albies misses the full eight weeks, he wouldn't return until the week of September 16. That is the playoffs/championship for most leagues, meaning he won't be contributing much for the rest of the year.

Ozzie Albies today underwent X-rays that revealed a left wrist fracture. He is expected to miss approximately eight weeks.

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 21, 2024

If you are in a good position to make the playoffs, it might be best to stash him in one of your IL spots for the time being. He could eventually make an impact for your fantasy team in the playoffs. However, if you are currently fighting for a playoff spot or don't have any room on your IL, dropping him feels like the most logical thing to do.

Albies will miss the next eight weeks, and it's not even a guarantee that he will return before the fantasy season is over. Maybe there's someone in your league who will take the chance and trade for him in redraft formats. But, in most cases, it's time to drop him, especially if you have no room to stash him on your IL.

Evan Phillips, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers closer Evan Phillips is in a rut on the mound and finds himself on this list for the first time this year. Phillips had a strong start to the year, totaling 13 saves with a 1.52 ERA in his first 25 appearances. The right-hander also had zero blown saves during that stretch.

But since then, Phillips has struggled to close out games. Over his last eight appearances, the 29-year-old has blown two saves while giving up at least one run in six of those appearances. With an 11.05 ERA during that span, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said prior to Monday's game that the team could use him in different spots moving forward.

Dave Roberts said Evan Phillips, who has struggled lately, will still pitch in leverage spots but stopped short of saying he’s still the Dodgers’ closer. They want him to keep working through things.

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) July 22, 2024

While Roberts didn't necessarily say that Phillips lost the closer job, it appears he'll give the right-hander some opportunities outside of the ninth inning to get him back in a groove. So, it would make sense for some fantasy managers to drop him in Week 18. However, it's best to hold onto the 29-year-old in fantasy, at least until the trade deadline next week.

It would be encouraging if the Dodgers don't add a closer at this year's deadline. That would mean they have some faith in Phillips, a role that he thrived in last year, and to start the 2024 season. So, keep the right-hander on your fantasy roster for a little bit longer while he figures things out.

Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill surprisingly made the team's Opening Day roster at just 20 years old. He then became a hot waiver wire add following his strong start to the season. That solid start continued for most of the year, as Merrill entered July with a .294 batting average, 12 home runs, 11 doubles, one triple, and 42 RBI.

However, the rookie has been in a major slump at the plate throughout July. Merrill is batting just .167 (9-for-54) with two doubles, one triple, and four RBI across 14 July games. As a result, his rostership in both Yahoo! and ESPN leagues continue to drop.

Despite his recent numbers, though, he is absolutely a player you should be holding in all formats. Rookies will go through plenty of ups and downs in their first year, and this is really Merrill's first rough stretch this season. He'll eventually pick things up at the plate, especially since his expected batting average (.289), expected slugging (.487), launch angle sweet-spot rate (39%), and strikeout rate (19%) all rank extremely well in 2024.

Keep him on your roster and wait for him to post better numbers in August and beyond.

Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

What a frustrating year it has been for Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette. After finishing with at least a .290 average, 20 HRs, and 30 doubles in each of the past two seasons, Bichette is on pace to finish with the worst numbers of his career in 2024. The 26-year-old is batting just .223 with four HRs, 16 doubles, and 30 RBI across 79 games this season.

On top of that, Bichette is currently on the IL nursing a calf injury that he suffered last weekend. With the year he is having and the fact that he will miss "multiple weeks," it might be time to drop him in some formats in Week 18.

#BlueJays manager John Schneider said it’s a moderate calf strain for Bo Bichette and he’ll be out multiple weeks

— Kaitlyn McGrath (@kaitlyncmcgrath) July 20, 2024

The talent is obviously there for Bichette, who hit a combined .299 at the plate in his first five major league seasons while leading the American League in hits twice in 2021 and 2022. But this season has been a much different story for the two-time All-Star. His expected batting average (.260), expected slugging (.383), barrel rate (4.5%), and chase rate (36.8%) all don't rank particularly well.

It's hard to give up on a player like Bichette in fantasy because he can turn it around at any point. Nonetheless, it's almost August and the shortstop has looked awful at the plate for most of the year. If you don't have an open IL slot on your roster, dropping him seems like the right move in most formats.

Nestor Cortes, SP, New York Yankees

Since breaking out in 2022 and finishing with a 2.44 ERA, New York Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes has failed to be a consistent fantasy option over the past two seasons. In 2023, he finished with a 4.97 ERA across 12 starts before missing the second half of the season with a strained rotator cuff. This season, Cortes has had an up-and-down year and has struggled as of late.

The left-hander has given up at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts, including 11 combined runs in his previous two outings against the Tampa Bay Rays. During that five-start stretch, Cortes is 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA. As a result, the 29-year-old is certainly trending down in fantasy. 

Given how Cortes has looked recently on the mound, it might be best to sell him for cheap. He does have a 3.99 ERA on the year, which is not the worst. But his ERA could continue to drop, considering his hard-hit rate (44.6%), barrel rate (9.1%), and average exit velocity (90.2 mph) all rank in the bottom half of the league. So, see what you can get for the southpaw in fantasy.