Third Year Breakouts For 2024-2025 Fantasy Basketball

October 12, 2024

Alex Burns shares 5 players who he believes will breakout in fantasy basketball during the 2024-2025 NBA season.

Most NBA players take a year or two to find their groove. Sure, the occasional phenom (looking at you, Victor Wembanyama) shatters every expectation we have about young players. But generally, it takes some time.

For those first-year players who didn’t make that big leap in their second season, year three is often the "make or break" moment. It’s a last-chance effort before fans tune out and mentally file you away in the Patrick Williams zone. Okay, that might be a bit harsh—but if you’re not breaking out by year three, the odds aren’t in your favor

In this piece, I'm highlighting a few under-the-radar players who I believe have the talent and opportunity to break out in their third NBA season, especially for fantasy basketball purposes. Don’t worry—I won’t bore you with the obvious picks like the Jalen's trio (Duren, Williams, Johnson). Instead, I’m digging deeper to spotlight players who I think are ready to put it all together and surprise everyone.

Third-Year Fantasy Basketball Breakouts

Dyson Daniels, G/F - Atlanta Hawks

Dyson Daniels has been on my radar ever since the New Orleans Pelicans selected him 8th overall in the 2022 NBA Draft. His skill set is tailor-made for fantasy, but he’s flown under the radar due to New Orleans' deep roster. Just check out his Per 36 numbers from last season: 9.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2.3 steals (!!!), and 0.7 blocks.

Luckily for his fantasy prospects, Daniels was traded to the Atlanta Hawks this offseason as a key part of the Dejounte Murray deal. While he likely won't see a full 36 minutes per game, there's a strong chance he starts alongside Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic, giving him plenty of opportunity to make an impact.

Dyson Daniels Hawks preseason debut:

14 PTS, 3 AST, 2 STL, 5/8 FG, 22 MP pic.twitter.com/HiHvSIvbjf

— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) October 9, 2024

Even if Daniels doesn’t start, I expect him to play a key role in Atlanta’s rotation, where there’s far less competition for touches compared to New Orleans. He’s an excellent pick in the later rounds of drafts (I just recently bumped him up to 129 in my categories rankings). Daniels has the kind of upside you rarely find at that range, with a legitimate chance to crack the top 100 if things fall into place.

Jeremy Sochan, F - San Antonio Spurs

Sochan created quite a buzz heading into last season when the Spurs announced he'd be their starting point guard. Needless to say, the "point-Sochan" experiment didn’t last long. While he’s an excellent passer, it was clear he was out of his element in that role. With Chris Paul now in the mix, Sochan will settle back into his natural position, taking over as the starting power forward alongside Victor Wembanyama in the frontcourt.

Sochan is an elite defender, even if his steal and block numbers seem a bit suppressed. However, playing down low more than he did last season could change that. While he’s still developing offensively, he did show notable improvement in his three-point shooting and free throw efficiency last season—shoutout to that one-handed free throw! Ultimately, I believe having a true playmaker like Chris Paul will open things up for everyone, including Sochan. I’m confident he has the talent to average over 1.0 steals per game, but the real question is whether he can boost his efficiency splits to the 46/33/80 range. He’s not far off!

Nikola Jovic, F - Miami Heat

When Nikola Jović entered the league, he was still in high school—let that sink in! While the talent has always been evident, it’s understandable that his body wasn’t quite ready for heavy minutes against the big men in the league. Last season, he showcased glimpses of his potential when given the opportunity. In 38 starts, averaging just 22 minutes per game, he recorded 8.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.6 three-pointers, shooting an impressive 40% from beyond the arc.

This season, he’s expected to start alongside Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt. Even though it isn’t official yet, head coach Erik Spoelstra has hinted at it on numerous occasions. Jovic has also notably added some muscle, which should help him exceed the playing time he saw in his spot starts.

Spoelstra stresses Nikola Jovic is now above 240 pounds, growing at power forward.

— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) October 8, 2024

In my projections, I have Jović slated for 26.8 minutes per game. Given his current draft position (an ADP of 260 on Fantrax), that would be an absolute steal! I’m targeting him with one of my last picks whenever I can, and I recently grabbed Jović in the 16th round of the esteemed Locked On Fantasy Bowl hosted by Basketball Monster.

Vince Williams Jr., G/F - Memphis Grizzlies
It's worth noting that Williams is recovering from a stress reaction in his left tibia and is expected to miss the start of the season.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who played the streaming game last season, as Williams was a valuable pickup amid all the injuries in Memphis. He started 33 games and averaged 12.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers during that stretch.

With nature healing in Memphis and most of their depth returning for the season, Williams might not crack the starting lineup (he should), though his performance last season has undoubtedly earned him a significant role in the rotation upon his return. Williams isn't someone to target in drafts right now due to his health, but in my opinion, he's the best *basketball player* on this list.

I have no sources to back this up, but a bold prediction of mine is that Memphis will trade Marcus Smart once Williams is healthy, opening up a sizable role for him on the court. At the very least, managers should be monitoring Williams' health and role upon his return.

Jaden Ivey, G - Detroit Pistons

Ivey has had an up-and-down start to his NBA career, but some of that inconsistency might be attributed to the dysfunction within the Pistons organization. Fortunately, there seems to be a bit of stability now, with new head coach J.B. Bickerstaff at the helm, along with a strong coaching staff, including renowned shooting coach Fred Vinson.

Through two preseason games, Ivey has certainly looked the part, averaging 19.0 points, 3.0 assists, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.0 three-pointers in just 23 minutes while showcasing solid efficiency. While we shouldn't base our opinions too heavily on exhibition games, the talent has always been there for Ivey. A coaching reset away from Monty Williams could very well reignite his basketball potential.

I'm not going crazy in drafting Ivey outside of points leagues, but he's a solid dart throw in the later rounds in hopes that this is the year it finally comes together for him.

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