6 years agoZack Wheeler broke out for the second time in 2018, posting a career-low 3.31 ERA, and career-high in wins with 12. After decent years in 2013 and 2014, injuries and other struggles kept him from sustaining early career success, and 2018 might finally be that return to form. Other key factors that are encouraging for owners are the 182.1 innings, his best since 185 frames in 2014, and a career-low 2.71 BB/9. Fueling these gains was the addition of a split-finger fastball that he threw 7.8% of the time. This addition led to an across-the-board drop in all of his other offerings and added to what is now a five-pitch mix. While these are great signs, Wheeler is currently drafted as a top-25 starting pitcher, which should be too high for owners. Fueling his career-best numbers was a homer rate that was down one per nine and a walk rate that was down close to three points off his previous career-bests. This means that 2018 Wheeler might be the best that fantasy owners ever see, and drafting him that high leaves little to no room for surplus value in the selection. And yet, the gains are real and means that he has moved from undraftable in the past to where Rotoballer has him at 29th, but this writer might even have him lower. If 2019 is a similar year, Wheeler will be moving up the lists for 2020 and beyond, but there are enough realistic regression spots to avoid buying for this year.--Jon Denzler - RotoBaller