Kenny Pickett 2022 NFL Player Outlook: Moderate Ceiling Low Price
2 years agoRookie Kenny Pickett was drafted 20th by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. In fantasy football dynasty leagues, Pickett has a high ceiling with a high price, redraft he has a moderate ceiling with a low price. His ADP in redraft leagues in currently #199. In dynasty leagues he is currently going in round one.
In early camps Pickett is currently taking snaps with the third string exclusively. Mitchell Trubisky is playing with the ones while Mason Rudolph is taking snaps with the twos.
Over the last 15 years 49 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round with five in the 2021 NFL Draft. Thirty-five started more than half of their rookie season, 82% of them started at least five games. Per Pro Football Network only five have finished their rookie dynasty season as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. Eight were inside the top 18, with Mac Jones finishing as QB18 last season. Temper the expectations.
Acquiring Pickett in redraft two quarterbacks or flex/super-flex leagues in the sixth-round or later allows you to get a quarterback who finished his college career with a 62.4% completion rate, 12,303 yards, 81 touchdowns, 32 interceptions and 20 rushing touchdowns.
He excelled in his last year in the University of Pittsburgh, where he had a 67.2% completion percentage averaging 8.7 yards per attempt with 42 touchdowns.
Now he is with the Steelers and above average weapons. Second year running back Najee Harris, second year tight-end Pat Freiermuth and wide receivers Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and rookies George Pickens and Calvin Austin.
The Steelers' offensive approach last season included 71.5% passes of throws went intermediate or short and we know offensive coordinator Matt Canada want to operate a run-heavy offense with plenty of RPOs. Pickett ran 33 RPOs in his college offense completion 27 of 31 passes with a 96.1% adjusted completion percentage. He excels at intermediate (10-19 yards) and short (0-9) yards passes. On intermediate throws he posted a 93.7 grade and an 87 grade on short throws (first and second in his class respectively).
The drawback is that he will be playing behind Pro Football Focus' 26th ranked offensive line. They were ranked sixth in pressures allowed (142) and 17th in pass blocking grade. But the offensive line was also aided by then quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ability to release the ball in 2.20 seconds. Pickett's average release time in college was 3.19 seconds. Pickett posted 60 passing grade under pressure last year, which was 34th among quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks.
Pickett is not a dual-threat quarterback. He had 28 rushing attempts in 2021 and finished his five-year collegiate career with 809 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns.
There is a good chance Trubisky starts the season under center for the Steelers. Pickett's value lies in dynasty.