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Milos Zvekic analyzes Overvalued Players on Yahoo Rankings for head-to-head fantasy basketball leagues. He reviews the upcoming NBA season and who to draft and where.
We all depend on fantasy sites' rankings. Some use them and them alone to measure a player's value and figure out when to target him in the draft. Others just consult them to see a point of view of others and compare them to their own. But the truth is, no matter how confident we are in our fantasy knowledge, when a well-known and respected fantasy NBA website like Yahoo has a big difference in opinion in a player's value, we will doubt ourselves. At least for a second.
Don't let this discourage you and steer you away from your path! Even if your opinion is vastly different from Yahoo or another renowned website, it doesn't mean you're in the wrong.
Here are some players whose ranking I don't agree with Yahoo on.
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Guys in the Top 50
Devin Booker, PG/SG, Phoenix Suns
Booker's stats from last season: 24.9 PTS on 43.2 FG% and 87.8 FT%, 2.7 3PM, 4.5 REB, 4.7 AST, 0.9 STL, 0.3 BLK and 3.6 TO in 34 minutes a game.
Star in the rising
Devin Booker is definitely one of the most exciting young talents in the league at the moment. Moreover, he plays for the Phoenix Suns who have no real playoff ambitions but will instead look to develop their young stars. That will see Booker play over 30 minutes a night barring any injuries.
He is a natural scorer, has long range and contributes with dimes and rebounds too. All this has him ranked at #25 in the Yahoo rankings and his ADP of 25.5 tells us fantasy owners agree.
New Star in the rising
Pheonix selected Deandre Ayton as the first overall pick in a very talented draft. Luka Doncic was available. There hasn't been such a talent at such a young age coming from Europe for… well… ever. Head coach Igor Kokoskov loves his game. He has coached Luka in the Slovenian national team. They pulled off a miracle and won the gold medal in the European Championships. The first ever for Slovenia. And in no small part because of Doncic. And the Suns still took Ayton at #1. That spells confidence in DeAndre.
This should also mean that Ayton will get his fair share of the ball, so Booker's usage of 30.9% (which was 6th among players who played 50+ games last season) is going down a bit.
Furthermore, Booker is currently recovering from an injury to his right hand and has played in only 54 games last season. But he averaged over 34 minutes in those 54 games. New coach Kokoskov will probably keep this in mind, and look not to push his young star too hard. Over 30 minutes a game? Yes. Almost 35? I don't think so.
As most of Booker's value is tied with his usage and playing time, a dip there will have its effect on his fantasy output as well.
Booker is also likely to play more point guard this season. While that could turn out to be a good thing for his value, he is not that comfortable in this role yet.
Conclusion
There are too many unknowns with Booker at the moment, and while he could be even better than his ADP should everything fall perfectly into place, there are just too many things that could go wrong and see him slip outside the top 30, even top 50. I wouldn't want that from my pick at the turn of the second and third round.
Booker is #36 in my book.
Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
Gasol's stats from last season: 17.2 PTS on 42.0 FG% and 84.3 FT%, 1.5 3PM, 8.1 REB, 4.2 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.4 BLK and 2.7 TO in 33 minutes a game.
Reliable fantasy stud
Marc Gasol has been a top 30 fantasy player for years. His points, boards, stocks with out of position threes and assists have him rightfully ranked at #34 in Yahoo and picked at #37 on average. If you're punting FG% or are just looking to be competitive in FT%, Gasol is a great C eligible player to own. He is also quite useful in building a well-balanced team and his value really shows in Roto leagues.
Gasol has also played 74 and 73 games respectfully in his last two seasons, so it seems that his injury woes have subsided.
If he gets enough minutes and games this year, he will be a top 30 player again.
It's Memphis
First of all, the Grizzlies took power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. as their #4 pick in the draft and he will take some shots away from Gasol.
Second, Mike Conley is back from his injury and will take some shots away from Gasol. This will decrease Gasol's usage and offensive output a bit. Although, Mike's return might not be such a bad thing for Gasol's fantasy outlook. If Memphis can do well and compete for the playoffs, the risk of Gasol missing games due to rest late in the season decreases.
But with the state of the rest of their roster and the strength of the Western Conference, that seems highly unlikely. Furthermore, it's just as unlikely that Conley will remain healthy, but I'll get to that later.
Conclusion
Gasol is very consistent and will most likely get you the stats you're looking for. He won't destroy his ADP, he won't win you many matchups on his own, but he will do his job and get you what you asked for when you drafted him… When he plays. That's just the thing.
We saw him rested during fantasy playoffs last season since Memphis was out of contention. It's highly likely we will see it again this year.
Moreover, we now have a young talent in Jackson Jr. in need of development, sharing the court with Gasol and that could limit him even more.
For these reasons, I have Gasol at #44.
Guys Around the Top 50
Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
Conley's stats from last season: 17.1 PTS on 38.1 FG% and 80.3 FT%, 2.0 3PM, 2.3 REB, 4.1 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.3 BLK and 1.5 TO in 31 minutes a game. Played only 12 games though due to injury.
Top Tier PG
Conley is without a doubt one of the top point guards in the NBA when healthy. He is a threat from downtown, contributes in boards, FT% and steals and he can pass with the best of them while keeping his turnovers to a minimum.
He plays on a Memphis team where he is one of the leaders and primary scorers which can only help his fantasy value. Additionally, he has no real competition for the PG spot so he is in no danger of losing minutes to a backup.
Injuries, injuries…
Conley played in only 12 games last season. He played 69 the season before. 56 before that one. That's a poor track record.
I have no doubt that Mike will be a top 50 player if he can play over 30 minutes a game in this Memphis team and feature in more than 70 games. I do have doubt though if he can pull that off.
The Grizzlies aren't a team they were a few years ago. Reaching the playoffs in this "Wild, Wild West" would be a major achievement by this bunch of youngsters lead by two veterans, Conley and Gasol. The odds that they will end their playoff hopes several weeks before the NBA season ends are quite high. And with the rise of those odds, the odds of Conley being saved and rested also increase.
Conclusion
It seems a big gamble to take Conley in the top 50 with his injury history and the chances he gets plenty of rest days during the fantasy playoffs with Memphis out of playoff contention.
I may take the risk if he falls to me at around #56 which is where I rank him.
Jarrett Allen, PF/C, Brooklyn Nets
Allen's stats from last season: 8.2 PTS on 58.9 FG% and 77.6 FT%, 0.1 3PM, 5.4 REB, 0.7 AST, 0.4 STL, 1.2 BLK and 1.1 TO in 20 minutes a game.
A FT shooting DeAndre Jordan
Allen has impressed in limited minutes in his rookie season. He is mostly praised in the fantasy community for his DJ-like stats without the negative FT effect. He is a good inside finisher and a decent rim protector who wheels in rebounds and has hit almost 80% of his free throws.
This makes him very valuable to fantasy teams in need of big man stats who would like to stay competitive in the FT% category. Allen also makes for a decent punt option for assist or threes. This makes him valuable in both Roto and Head-to-head leagues.
In addition to this, Ed Davis is his biggest competition at the center in Brooklyn so he should see his 20 mpg from last season increase in his second year. Brooklyn is also in rebuild mode and they will use this season to develop their youngsters.
All this has him ranked at #46 on Yahoo.
The Hype is going a bit overboard
Throughout the fantasy NBA community, there is chatter about Allen and how he has every opportunity to take the next step. I agree.
I agree with that, and with all the positive things said above. I too believe Allen will have a decent fantasy season. I too trust that he will get more minutes and contribute plenty of big man stats for his fantasy owners.
But #46?
That's a bit too much for me. I like to take a safer pick at this part of the draft.
Moreover, it is said that with no competition he will have a field day. But he didn't really have much competition last year too, did he?
And a huge part of his value is advertised to be his FT%. But he shot just 56.4% in college. One season of 77% shooting in the NBA in 20 minutes and 2.0 attempts a game isn't really enough to guarantee that Allen can really provide what most are picking him for - FT% contribution from a center.
Conclusion
Allen is on good track to have a decent fantasy season. He is in a great spot with a team in development mode and he will get every chance to produce. But I doubt that he can really do enough to be a top 50 player in his second fantasy season, after averaging only 20 mpg last season.
I wouldn't take him before #60 and most fantasy owners agree with me as he is being picked at 59,3 on average.
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