Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 11 (2025) - Josh Jacobs, Jaylen Warren, Woody Marks, More

November 16, 2025

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 11 of 2025 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

We have what could be, in my opinion, the best collection of games we've seen all season in Week 11. Two AFC North battles, a Bills-Bucs showdown, Chargers-Jags, Chiefs-Broncos, and a huge matchup between the Rams and Seahawks are all on tap for the main slate, with the Lions-Eagles clash for dessert in the Sunday night game.

I'm here to break it all down for you, with my primary focus being on the running back matchups for the DFS main slate.

However, these are also running backs you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets, too. We also have lots of great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE this season! Without any further ado, here are my top FIVE (the pickings are kind of slim this week) matchups for Week 11.

Week 11 Running Back Matchups

In my constant search for usable metrics, I crunched the first 10 weeks of data. The first column is the overall offensive rushing attack vs. their opponent, calculated using each team's offensive and defensive DVOA.

The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated by using the "adjusted line yards" created and allowed by each team. The third column is simply Pro Football Focus's run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

Josh Jacobs ($7,800 DK, $9,100 FD)

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Christian McCaffrey may be trending towards the most rostership on the main slate (yet again), but my top spend-up at running back this week is Josh Jacobs, and I prefer him over CMC, Bijan Robinson, and James Cook by a pretty wide margin.

Green Bay's matchup rating trails only Pittsburgh on my sheet this week as the Packers get to pick on the 32nd-ranked Giants run defense. New York continues to struggle against the run and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs (behind, you guessed it - the Bengals).

The Giants have some solid pass rushers on their defensive front, but they struggle to stop the run, and the best way to keep that pass rush in check is to keep pounding the football against this front seven.

After ceding some of his touches to Emanuel Wilson the last few weeks, Jacobs was leaned on heavily in last week's loss to the Eagles, handling 21 carries and another five catches out of the backfield. The Packers need a win here on the road to get back on track, and I would expect them to try to establish their run game early and often, setting up Jordan Love for some high percentage throws in the play-action pass game.

Picking on the Giants didn't work out all that well last week with Swift and Monangai both failing to make value, but consider that they combined to go 20-108-1 between them, and it proved to still be a very productive spot. The negative game script forced the Bears to throw the ball more than they wanted; that's all.

I think the game script should favor a heavy workload for Jacobs this week. The Packers are touchdown favorites, and the Giants are down to third-string quarterback Jameis Winston and are also missing Darius Slayton. With 11 touchdowns already this season, Jacobs is one of the best bets for a touchdown (or two) on the board. He's my pick to lead the position in raw points, and I'll take the salary cap savings here on Jacobs over McCaffrey as my RB1.

Rico Dowdle ($6,800 DK, $8,100 FD)

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Things started so promising for Dowdle last week as he racked up over 30 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter against the Saints. Then the Panthers completely fell apart, turning the ball over multiple times and struggling to stop a very mediocre Saints offense that controlled the clock for much of the game.

So Rico was a bit of a bust as chalk last week, but he's set up pretty nicely for another solid week if (and only if) Carolina can play a cleaner game with fewer mistakes.

Dowdle's rushing prop against Atlanta is set at 86.5 this week, which is an indication that Vegas has plenty of respect for Dowdle and this Carolina offensive line. I've talked a lot about the Carolina big men this season, and they continue to grade out as a top-5 run-blocking unit.

Only 5 RBs are projected 100+ yards from scrimmage this week...

Christian McCaffrey
De'Von Achane
Bijan Robinson
RICO DOWDLE
Jaylen Warren pic.twitter.com/SaFWu1SHDF

— Underdog Picks (@UnderdogPicks) November 14, 2025

When these teams met earlier this season, it was Chuba Hubbard who was still the lead back in this offense, and he had 73 yards on 17 carries while Dowdle added 30 yards on ten carries. It should be more of an 80-20 split this week with Dowdle and Hubbard, and I won't be surprised if Dowdle bounces back with a pretty solid day.

The volatility of this Panthers team makes Dowdle a better tournament option than a cash play - we learned our lesson last week. Don't fade this spot, we've seen what Dowdle can do this year when the game script is in his favor.

Jaylen Warren ($6,100 DK, $7,000 FD)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Welcome to Jaylen Warren week, and buckle up, because this could be quite the ride! The Steelers running back exploded for his best output of the season when these two teams met about a month ago. Warren accounted for 158 yards from scrimmage and ran for nearly eight yards per carry against this Bengals defense.

So, naturally, Warren is going to be a chalky selection this week in DFS contests, especially when you factor in his price and the 49-point Vegas total.

But the rostership is likely well-deserved as this matchup is simply as good as it gets. You can see from the chart that the Steelers have the best DVOA matchup rating and O-line rating. We have only seen that happen a few times this season, and in both instances, the lead runner from that team has smashed.

I don't have too many deep dives here for you on this one. Sometimes the obvious answer is the right one. Warren should be in your cash game lineups, and instead of fading him in tournaments, I'd look to get creative with the ways in which you correlate him with some Cincy players. I wrote about this yesterday in our DFS stacks piece here.

Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,600 DK, $6,800 FD)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. L.A. Chargers

I think Etienne could easily get overlooked this week, despite having a top-5 matchup at the position. The Jags want to run the football more often than people give them credit for, and after a mid-season slump, Etienne has posted a few good games in a row over the last two weeks.

He's averaged 19 carries per game the last two weeks and could be leaned on a lot in this one as the Jags attempt to attack the Chargers' 26th-ranked run defense. Jacksonville has the 10th-ranked run offense and would be wise to feed Etienne and eat up some clock to keep their defense (and the Chargers offense) off the field.

It's probably the least-exciting click you will make into your lineup, but Etienne is underpriced for both his role and matchup this week.

Woody Marks ($5,400 DK, $6,300 FD)

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

One of the sneakier cheap plays on this slate is Woody Marks. Warren, Chase Brown, and RJ Harvey are all going to be popular plays this week, leaving Marks lightly-rostered despite his fantastic matchup and increasing opportunities.

Woody Marks Is In a Favorable Matchup in Tennessee https://t.co/Xb5lGNaKzj

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) November 15, 2025

The Titans' run defense has been poor all season. They rank 28th in DVOA rush defense and have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs. While Houston's rushing attack has not been its strength this season, they are likely to attack the vulnerable Tennessee front seven on the ground with its backup quarterback, Davis Mills, drawing another start.

Houston is a 5.5-point favorite in this game, and they dispatched the Titans with relative ease the first time they met. In that game, Marks had his best performance of the season, totaling 119 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.

Mills is not a downgrade for this offense; he orchestrated a big comeback last week and should be able to keep moving the chains, putting Marks in position to find paydirt once again. I love this pivot for tournaments as I think Marks has as much upside as any back not named Jacobs this week!

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More DFS Analysis and Lineup Picks