RADIO
What’s up RotoBallers. I’m here today to try and unearth some outfielders that you can get later in your drafts, and will also provide similar value to other outfielders who are being drafted earlier on average.
If you’re looking to make a splash on draft day, you should give RotoBaller’s ADP Draft Sleepers Tool a long, hard look. The tool allows you to compare a player’s expected production against his top comparables going later in the draft.
Frankly, it’s a great resource for identifying overvalued talents and hidden gems alike. To give you a glimpse into how it works, I’ve used the tool to scan through this year’s stock of outfielders. Ready to see what value picks the Draft Sleepers Tool unearthed? Let’s take a look:
Justin Upton vs. Kole Calhoun
| Name | ADP | Age | PA | BA | OBP | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| Upton | 40.2 | 26 | 605 | .253 | .337 | 71 | 23 | 75 | 8 |
| Calhoun | 97.4 | 26 | 639 | .264 | .324 | 82 | 19 | 67 | 9 |
I've long been on record as disliking Justin Upton's new home. Park Factors reveal that PETCO Park depresses batting average at one of the worst rates in the majors for right handed hitters. This helps to explain why Upton is only projected to hit for a league average .253 batting average next year. Two years removed from his last season as a real stolen base threat, this is a loss Upton can't afford. In the late third round, you're largely picking from a pool of multidimensional hitters like George Springer, Jose Reyes, and Corey Dickerson. Unlike Upton, these are players who bring more to the plate than just power.
Five rounds later, Kole Calhoun looks like a strong candidate to replicate Upton's diminished production. If anything, his projection is fairly conservative compared to the numbers he put up in limited playing time last year. He's reason enough to not pay through the nose for Upton on draft day.
Matt Holliday vs. Jayson Werth
| Name | ADP | Age | PA | BA | OBP | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| Holliday | 82.4 | 34 | 617 | .277 | .365 | 78 | 20 | 77 | 4 |
| Werth | 168.2 | 35 | 573 | .285 | .375 | 73 | 17 | 69 | 6 |
With Matt Holliday you're paying for health. Holliday has played an average of 147 games a year over the last five seasons, impressive for someone entering his age 35 season. On the other hand, Jayson Werth has struggled with injuries throughout his career. During the same period, he's had years in which he played as few as 81 games. Compared to Holliday, his 132 games per year average is a distinct step down.
The question is, how much are you willing to pay for that health record? While healthy, Werth's production has been fairly similar to Holliday's. Holliday has averaged an extra 15 games a season, and there's real value to those extra games. Is that enough to justify drafting Holliday eight rounds before Werth? I'm not so sure it is.
Yoenis Cespedes vs. J.D. Martinez
| Name | ADP | Age | PA | BA | OBP | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| Cespedes | 64.4 | 28 | 600 | .268 | .319 | 75 | 24 | 87 | 7 |
| Martinez | 109.0 | 26 | 584 | .273 | .323 | 71 | 22 | 80 | 6 |
Let's get one point straight before beginning: J.D. Martinez doesn't have to replicate last year's production to be a better value than Yoenis Cespedes. Baked into his projection is the expectation that Martinez will lose nearly 30 points of batting average compared to 2014. That sounds reasonable.
Given the changes he's made to his swing, there certainly isn't a good reason to assume he should lose more than that. What you're left with is a player almost identical to Cespedes in terms of expected production. The difference is you can find Martinez four rounds later in the draft. Now that's a value.
All RotoBaller readers can use the 2B/SS ADP Draft Sleepers Tool (also in the upper right corner of site). And to get full access to all positions (SP, OF, 1B/3B) you can just...
