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Andy Smith's late-round fantasy baseball sleepers for stolen bases (SB) in 2025. These are upside hitters and fantasy baseball stolen base draft targets.
If you target power-hitting and pitching early in your drafts, you may be trending towards the bottom in stolen base projections. However, several speed options are going late in drafts that carry elite steals upside.
While some of these fantasy baseball players may be "one-category" producers, with a handful of them contributing to two or more categories, these speedy players are also later-round targets to save your stolen base production as they are going outside the top 200 picks on NFBC drafts.
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Victor Robles, OF, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 201
The 27-year-old is expected to be the No. 1 right fielder in the Seattle lineup. Last season, Victor Robles made 77 starts with Seattle (14 with Washington at the start of the season) and swiped an overall 34 bases (career-high) throughout the season. He also held a career-best .307/.381/.433 slash line with 20 doubles and 44 runs.
He hit just four long balls and tallied 28 RBI. He was typically penciled in as the leadoff hitter in Seattle, which hindered his RBI output.
Under the hood, he generated a .257 xBA, which suggests he should face some regression in 2025. However, this average was still above the average mark. In addition, he also placed in the 63rd percentile in sprint speed.
Lastly, his elite defensive metrics (92nd percentile in arm strength) should always keep him in the Seattle lineup, making him a high-floor target for a stolen base.
ATC projects Robles to have the third-most stolen bases (39) in 2025.
Jacob Young, OF, Washington Nationals
ADP: 337
Similar to Robles, Jacob Young carries minimal power upside. Last season, across a career-high 150 games, Young hit just three long balls with 36 RBI. He held a .256/.316/.331 slash line.
However, he scored 75 runs and added an impressive 33 stolen bases.
His underlying metrics do not suggest a power surge is on the way in 2025. Young placed in the first and eighth percentile regarding barrel and hard-hit rate. In addition, he generated a poor .317 xSLG.
When looking at his speed metrics, Young jumps off the charts as he posted a 29.7 sprint speed, which placed him in the 97th percentile among qualified hitters. His elite 20 outs above average (OAA) should also help him hold a spot in the starting lineup.
According to ATC projections, he is a fine target in deeper formats at his current ADP. He is projected to swipe 31 bags in 2025, but do not expect much offensive production.
Jose Caballero, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
ADP: 295
Jose Caballero is slated to open the season as the team's starting shortstop, but that may not last too long as the recently acquired Ha-Seong Kim (elbow) is expected to return sometime in May.
Last summer, across a career-high 139 contests, the 28-year-old infielder stole 44 bases, which was the most in the American League. In the batter's box, he posted an underwhelming .227/.283/.347 slash line with just nine home runs.
His underlying metrics placed him within the 10th percentile among all hitter statistics, which is not a positive sign. However, he was an excellent defender, posting an elite seven OAA.
While Caballero may operate as a depth option once Kim returns, given his elite defensive skills, he could find a spot elsewhere in the infield as an injury replacement. Given the possibility he spends most of the season not seeing consistent at-bats, he is best left for AL-only formats.
Dylan Moore, 2B/SS/3B/OF, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 471
Dylan Moore saw time as a utility infielder (and outfielder) in Seattle last season and is slated to continue to operate in a super-utility role in 2025. In 135 games, Moore posted a .201/.320/.367 line with 23 doubles, 10 home runs, and 32 stolen bases. He added 53 runs with 42 RBI.
While his power metrics were not impressive, he showed a strong eye at the plate, giving him a slight edge in points league and category formats with on-base percentage. His 12.0% walk rate placed him in the 94th percentile among qualified hitters.
According to Statcast, Moore placed in the 66th percentile for sprint speed, which suggests he could see a slight drop in stolen base production.
The Mariners re-signed Jorge Polanco to play third base, but Moore could still find a role covering the keystone as he will likely have the edge in playing time over other second basemen on the team, such as Leo Rivas and Miles Mastrobuoni. He should also find starts in the outfield as well.
ATC projects the 32-year-old to swipe 28 bags. He is a great value pick in deeper formats, as he should have close to an everyday role in the starting nine.
Jake McCarthy, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 228
The 27-year-old struggled to find a consistent role in the starting lineup early on in 2024 but found a permanent spot over the final two months of the season. Overall, Jake McCarthy posted a strong .285/.349/.400 slash line with eight home runs and 25 stolen bases.
However, McCarthy saw his production soar in the second half as he posed a .291 AVG and .413 SLG compared to the .278 AVG and .387 SLG he held in the first half of the campaign.
Jake McCarthy delivers for the @Dbacks #walkoff! pic.twitter.com/B7vEcRXR5e
— MLB (@MLB) August 14, 2024
While he does not carry much power upside, he only struck out a 15.8% rate, which placed him in the 83rd percentile, giving him a more significant boost in points leagues. In addition, Statcast placed the Virgina product in the 98th percentile in sprint speed, which is an excellent sign for his stolen base production.
McCarthy has swiped at least 20 bags in each of his past three seasons and has shown no signs of slowing as ATC projects him to tally 29 in 2025.
Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 213
Cedric Mullins carries the highest upside on this list, given his ability to contribute with speed and power. Across 147 games, Mullins posted a .234/.305/.405 slash line with 18 home runs and 32 stolen bases. He tallied 69 runs with 54 RBI.
While Mullins did typically sit against southpaws, his solid production against right-handers helped balance his lost at-bats. Facing right-handed pitching, Mullins held a .245/.325/.441 line with 17 long balls.
The 30-year-old does not boast the most impressive power metrics as he relies on pulling the ball to the right side of Camden Yards, where he hit almost all of his home runs. His 13.7% pull rate was his highest since 2019.
From a speed perspective, Mullins placed in the 75th percentile in sprint speed and has swiped at least 30 bags in three of his previous four seasons.
#Birdland Cedric Mullins is a late-round SPEED boost!
✅ 18 HR / 32 SB in 147 games
✅ 30+ SB in 3/4 previous seasons
✅ 75th %tile sprint speed
✅ High pull-rate gives him 20/20 upside in 2025
Platoon risk, but worth the gamble! 🔥#FantasyBaseball (ADP:213 @TheReal_NFC ) pic.twitter.com/i1XddkhnTL— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) January 29, 2025
While his counting stats may not be as reliable, given he usually sits against Southpaws, he is the lone player on this list that carries a 20/20 upside in the 2025 season.
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