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Kev Mahserejian analyzes risers and fallers for Week 18 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. Which known studs should break out of their slump and which newcomers on the scene will stick?
The All-Star break may be over, but the fantasy baseball season is not. Two months is a lot of time to lock in and stay on the ball. Most H2H league matchups should have another month in the regular season. Knowing who is on the up or down is crucial right now because nothing is worse than dead weight or missed opportunity.
Throughout the first half, plenty of recently unknown players have thrived in fantasy baseball while many perennial All-Stars have disappointed. Below, I discuss which risers are worth snagging and which fallers are not worth your time anymore.
For all complaints, contact Kev Mahserejian on X (@RotoSurgeon). Without further ado, here are your risers and fallers for Week 18 of the fantasy baseball season!
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Fantasy Baseball Risers
Tyler Fitzgerald, San Francisco Giants
37% Rostered on Yahoo!
Five home runs in five consecutive games is an attention-grabber. Tyler Fitzgerald is on a tear and should continue playing daily even when he cools down, given his above-average defensive ability. The Giants tend to find these diamonds in the rough every year or two, and Fitzgerald is this season's prize.
Tyler Fitzgerald is now on an eight-game hitting streak, where he has gone 11-for-23 and posted a 1.891 OPS 🤯 pic.twitter.com/cyBLBSP3qV
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) July 25, 2024
Fitzgerald is slashing .316/.391/.602 through 110 plate appearances. His .417 BABIP suggests regression and a 29.1% strikeout rate back it, but with his power, 10% walk rate (viable for OBP leagues), and ability to steal the occasional base (seven this season), he is a valuable fantasy piece.
Verdict: Pick up in 12+ team leagues where MI is needed.
Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers
16% Rostered on Yahoo!
Is Gavin Lux back? The Dodgers second baseman is finally hitting like himself again after an atrocious start to the season. Lux tore his ACL running the bases in spring training last season, missed all of 2023, and was not a lock to make the Opening Day roster after struggling to field in March.
Nevertheless, Lux has three HRs, six runs, and eight RBI since July 11 while batting .406. He is not going to sustain this torrid pace, but there is a reason for optimism as he was due for positive regression given his xAVG and has seen a jump in his rolling expected wOBA over this stretch. Hitting in the Dodgers lineup is a boost for any hitter and Lux should continue playing nearly every day.
Verdict: Pick up in 12+ team leagues where MI is needed.
Luis L. Ortiz, Pittsburgh Pirates
32% Rostered on Yahoo!
The Pirates may have another stud SP in their rotation this season. Paul Skenes is already among the league's best pitchers. Mitch Keller is established as a rock. Jared Jones displayed ace upside while healthy. Now, Ortiz is finding his turn to flash. Through 73 2/3 innings this season, Ortiz holds a 2.57 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 3.49 xERA. His xFIP and SIERA both sit above 4.00, but since reentering the rotation as a starter on June 26, Ortiz holds a 1.01 ERA backed by a 1.76 FIP and 3.15 xFIP.
Dating back to his final start of the 2023 season, Luis Ortiz has thrown 5.0+ innings and allowed four or fewer hits in five consecutive starts, matching the second-longest such streak in franchise history 👏 pic.twitter.com/4a0Hmlr3SO
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) July 21, 2024
Ortiz is a different pitcher over the past month. He has not given up more than a single earned run in a given outing. While the matchups in this stretch are not elite offenses, the Cardinals, Mets, and Philles are all respectable versus right-handed pitching. Ortiz should be started in almost all situations moving forward.
Verdict: Pick up and hold in all formats.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Ben Rice, New York Yankees
57% Rostered on Yahoo!
Uncle Ben...I mean Ben Rice is looking less appetizing of late. Since his three-HR game on July 6, Rice is slashing .087/.204/.239 with two HRs, four runs, and seven RBI. The counting stats are fine, but an average like that is horrendous. His BABIP in this span is .083, making regression quite likely, but how long can one wait this out as he is striking out 38.9% of the time during this stretch?
Rice hits the ball very hard, making a high xAVG (.262) and xSLG (.566). However, he plays a position (catcher) with a high replacement value that can be found elsewhere. Shallower leagues should not hold through this slump.
Verdict: Hold in OBP and two-catcher leagues.
Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers
89% Rostered on Yahoo!
The Dodgers do not care about your fantasy baseball team. Evan Phillips is arguably their best reliever and one of the best in baseball since 2022. Despite this, Phillips has accrued just 15 saves this season after totaling 24 last year. Unfortunately, Phillips is not pitching well of late. He has allowed nine runs on four HRs since June 30 with just eight strikeouts to four walks in this span. Phillips has allowed a run in six of these past 10 starts.
Daniel Hudson gets the save instead of Evan Phillips. The Red Sox had three lefties due up, and the Dodgers broadcast mentioned that lefties were hitting him with an OPS +1.000 against.
— Jeff Erickson (@Jeff_Erickson) July 20, 2024
Phillips' struggles have made way for Daniel Hudson to eat into save opportunities. Hudson has four saves in July while Phillips has just two. In the Dodgers' most recent win against the Giants, Brent Honeywell closed the game while Hudson and Phillips both pitched before the ninth.
Verdict: Drop in 10-team leagues. Hold and bench otherwise if possible as this may be a cold streak.
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
51% Rostered on Yahoo!
Shane Baz has made three starts thus far and the results are mixed. He has allowed exactly three runs in two outings while his worst start was the game in which he allowed zero runs. Baz struck out 11 and walked just two in his first two starts, and then walked five and struck out just one while facing 18 batters.
The good news for Baz's managers is that he faced the toughest team versus RHP twice in this span and those were his most recent two outings against the Yankees. Baz may be declining, but a team seeing the same pitcher twice in one week typically favors them. Velocity is not an issue and neither is Baz's arm as his injury this season was an oblique rather than his surgically repaired elbow. He can still deliver on that upside throughout the rest of this season if the Rays allow him to work through this in the majors. His ability to generate ground balls is dramatically lower than his career rate and a .357 BABIP against should not sustain.
Shane Baz, 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/51LEBBKXhA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 6, 2024
Verdict: Hold and start Baz in this upcoming start then decide on his future on your roster.
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