Dynasty Price Check - Josh Rosen

May 5, 2019

Miami Dolphins quarterback Josh Rosen has been in the news ever since the NFL Draft and has finally found a new home for the 2019 NFL season. Pierre Camus looks at Rosen's value in dynasty leagues for the upcoming fantasy football season and beyond. Is he a buy-low QB worth acquiring?

Now that the NFL Draft results are set in stone, we roll on with our Dynasty Price Check series where we evaluate the current market for fantasy-relevant players.

Today's column will take a look at Miami Dolphins QB Josh Rosen. Rosen has been talked about more than any other non-rookie over the last couple of weeks, as his job was recently taken by #1 pick Kyler Murray. It didn't take long for the Cards to find a trade partner, as the QB-starved Dolphins gladly gave up a second-round pick (62 overall) and next year's fifth-round pick to get their new signal-caller. We know Murray will be starting from Week 1 but Rosen must beat out journeyman and Magic Man, Ryan Fitzpatrick, for the job in Miami and show why he was taken with the 10th pick in 2018.

For all discussions regarding Rosen's dynasty value, we assume you are playing in a 12-team, one-quarterback dynasty league with 0.5 PPR scoring. As always, player values can shift quickly in dynasty leagues so be sure to stay on top of the NFL news cycle when proposing trades and check out RotoBaller's Dynasty rankings.

Overview

Josh Rosen
Team: Miami Dolphins
College: UCLA
Age: 22
Height/Weight: 6'4", 226 pounds
2017 NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick 10 overall

An Inauspicious Debut

Josh Rosen was part of an illustrious draft class that saw five quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He was taken 10th overall, just ahead of his current team in Miami when the Cardinals made him their QB of the future (we thought). He was the fourth QB off the board despite wide speculation that the Giants might take him second overall.

Much like his peers at the position, he saw immediate playing time. His rookie year began in Week 3 when he entered in the fourth quarter of a loss to the Chicago Bears in place of an ineffective Sam Bradford who was strip-sacked by Khalil Mack and appeared frazzled after the play. Rosen completed the first two passes of his career and appeared as if he might lead his team to a last-minute victory but instead threw an interception and came up short on a subsequent series.

After being named starting quarterback for the red birds, Rosen earned his first victory in Week 5 over the 49ers despite completing 10 of 25 pass attempts. Over the remainder of the season, Rosen would post a modest average of 172 passing yards per game with a 9-13 TD-INT rate. He would also fumble the ball 10 times in those 11 games. The Cardinals would go 3-11 under Rosen, thus earning the right to pick first in the 2019 NFL Draft and effectively ending his tenure with the team.

While Rosen turned the ball over way too much and didn't have nearly the success of his counterparts like Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson, something has to be said for the atrocious offensive line of Arizona. They allowed him to be sacked 45 times in 14 games, which is why they finished dead last in PFF's year-end Offensive Line rankings. To quote Michael Renner, "11 different offensive linemen played at least 100 snaps for the Cardinals this season, and not a single one played well. Quarterback Josh Rosen didn’t have a chance."

His receivers didn't help much either. There's no better target for a young passer to have than Larry Fitzgerald but at age 35, Larry Legend seemed to have lost a step. Christian Kirk flashed as a rookie at times but he was lost to injury for the last four weeks of the season. The rest of the WR corps consisted of J.J. Nelson, Chad Williams, and Trent Sherfield. Rosen won't necessarily get an upgrade in this department with the Dolphins' current crop that includes bust Devante Parker but it won't be worse either.

The coaching was a mess from the beginning too. It goes without saying that Steve Wilks' brief tenure as a head coach didn't end well, with a 3-13 record in one season. The defensive-minded coach relied on OC Mike McCoy to run the offense but he was replaced after Week 7 by first-time offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. This helped for about a week and did get David Johnson back on track but it wasn't long before the Cards were back to their losing ways. Rosen now gets a whole new set of coaches to contend with, including first-time head coach Brian Flores and coordinator Chad O'Shea.

Dynasty Value

Rosen is just 22 years old with a year of NFL experience under his belt. It's hard to believe so many people have given up on him after one year, especially the Cardinals. Fantasy owners are largely doing the same, discarding Rosen as a backup even in two-QB leagues. He is currently the 25th-ranked dynasty quarterback, although that may move up if he performs well in training camp.

One aspect of his situation that can't be overlooked is the fact that the Dolphins stink. They were an adequate 7-9 last year, but the coaching staff is gone and the plan is to tank rebuild for another year or two in order to accumulate high picks in favor of high-priced free agents. The Dolphins rank in the middle in terms of strength of schedule for 2019 but start the year off with four straight games against playoff teams and have a pair of games against teams coming off a bye. The Bills and Jets should be better than last year and, oh yeah, the Patriots are still champions.

All told, the going might be rough for Miami this season, so Rosen should be expected to have some ups and downs similar to last year. Hopefully, he can cut down the turnovers and have enough moments that show promise for the future. In a perfect world, the Dolphins can use their upcoming top picks to help the line rather than following the Arizona model and drafting a QB a year after giving up on Rosen. His value is still in question, but it should be slightly higher than it was a few weeks ago.

Possible Trades

Most Rosen owners aren't selling now if they haven't already. There is little reason to do so, as his value is so far depressed from the intially-required investment.

If you need youth at the QB position or are looking for a high-upside backup or QB2 in Superflex leagues, Rosen shouldn't cost you an early first-round rookie pick, as many would prefer to invest in Dwayne Haskins or Kyler Murray instead. Rosen's pre-NFL Draft value was somewhere in the latter part of the first round.

As usual, Twitter tells all for #dynastytrades:

PPR SuperFlex
Latest Rosen ?️ check!!!#fantasyfootball #dynastyfootball #dynastypolls #dynastytrades @SuperFlexPod

— David Casper (@dcghost82) April 22, 2019

His stock is a bit higher now that he's moved on with a chance to start (and start over) but that doesn't mean you should pay 2018 prices. Start by offering an early second-round pick if possible or a future first-rounder as long as you aren't in complete rebuild mode. If the owner balks, you could consider parting with a late first-rounder but only because of the lack of star power in this year's draft class.

Conclusion

Many will be scared away by all the drama surrounding Rosen and the perception that his value has fallen off a cliff, but he's the same player that was a top-10 pick just one calendar year ago. There is no better buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues, even after his trade to Miami, as long as you are willing to be patient.

More Dynasty League Strategy