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Mav's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for Worlds LoL on 10/16/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back summoners, to another WORLDS EDITION article covering the six-game slate that involves only teams from Group B. I'm here to admit that C9 made me eat my words, as they do not suck. That would be FPX. Rogue put up a good fight just like C9 but lost the tiebreaker, and FPX had a total collapse. To be frank, C9 is NA's most successful worlds team, regardless of the roster. So maybe I should have had more faith in Uma Jan and those millions of dollars C9 made moves with. But not many analysts and experts predicted C9 or Rogue to get out of this "group of death," let alone see this epic collapse of 2019 worlds winners FPX. Shoutout to the legend MR MALMANGER who predicted C9 to get out of groups last night. I want whatever copium and hopium he was on. Luckily, we still cashed with RGE/DK stacks so it wasn't a terrible day. DK and C9 advance to the knockout stage, where matchups will be drawn on Oct 18 following the completion of the group stage. Onto group B!
Quick side note, as substitutions for T1 always make their slates interesting. Gumayusi has started over Teddy in all three games so far, but there's always a small chance that Teddy comes in for a game or two. Be wary, as Teddy could get subbed in/out even after lock.
Let's get into which two teams I think will get out of Group B after tomorrow. Currently, EDG sits at 3-0, T1 sits at 2-1, 100T at 1-2, and DFM at 0-3. Stop me if you've heard this before, but there are two clear favorites that SHOULD advance to the knockout stage. Those two teams being EDG and T1. I am very proud of DFM for being the first LJL team to advance to the group stage, but they are outclassed by every team in this group, even though they had early game leads vs both EDG and 100T. EDG is a wagon and a favorite to win the whole tournament, and T1 is clicking on all cylinders in terms of macro gameplay, as most LCK teams tend to focus on. 100T surely won't back down tomorrow, but it is definitely an uphill battle after extremely lackluster performances vs both T1 and EDG in the first-round robin. 100T managed three kills vs T1 in their first match, and only six kills vs EDG (all of which were kills on Meiko.) Players will accrue points from ALL games played tomorrow, so lineup construction is slightly different, as going to an underdog for value is the only option if you don't want a jungle captain on DK. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings, so for FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSI'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this Worlds slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 7:00 AM EST on Saturday, October 16th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
Group B Matches SAT 10/16 (teams on left are on red side and get counterpick)
7:00 AM DFM (+752) vs. EDG (-1226)
The oddsmakers are not holding back in this one, as EDG are extremely heavy favorites to come out ahead in this BO1 rematch vs DFM. In the first match, Steal of DFM led the way in early action for DFM, shutting down Scout's lane control early, and pushing his team ahead to a 5-0 early kill lead vs EDG. Unfortunately, EDG still found their way back into the game relatively easily, by playing for dragon team fights and clever map rotations. This game is as straightforward as it gets, with EDG cleanly defeating DFM in a slower paced win coming by superior map rotations, cross map plays, and stronger 5v5 team fighting capabilities.
7:55 AM 100T (+307) vs. T1 (-405)
The first game of the day for both of these teams, and a pivotal one if 100T plan to advance to the knockout stage. I am once again not placing my faith in NA, as T1 outclasses 100T once again. T1 was up 10k gold at 20 mins in their first matchup. T1 won both side lanes hard, which is what 100T strives to do in most cases. However, Ssumday is known for being a weak side player, especially now with Abbedagge on the team, so it's a tough draw for 100T. Do you try and play through Abbedagge who is against Faker, who is known for his potent laning and ability to always have an impact in the game? Or do you try and unlock FBI, so Huhi can roam around and affect his solo lanes along with Closer? I personally don't like what I've seen from Abbedagge this tournament even in advantageous matchups. FBI and Huhi have performed OK in my eyes, but Teddy and Keria are definitely the better bot lane at all points in the game. That leaves the carry burden to Closer and Ssumday, who face off against the youngster Oner and the consistent carry top lane menace that is Canna. I don't see a way that 100T wins this game unless they find a level 1 advantage as C9 did vs Rogue in their first match today, and consistently pressure T1 on the map. But again, T1 was one of the best early game teams in the LCK, and hardly slips up in the mid to late stages thanks to the veteran shot-calling and map rotations led by Faker. I think T1 dominates the side lanes once again, with Faker playing for his side lanes again rather than for himself. T1 comfortable win, low scoring.
8:50 AM T1 (+142) vs. EDG (-174)
T1 vs EDG. The two titans in this group. T1 lost the game vs EDG in their first matchup and tried to draft for Canna to carry, and JieJie + Flandre had different ideas as to how the game would turn out. This time around, I expect T1 to try and put their eggs into the Faker basket, by trying to play for more mid/jungle control rather than top/jungle. I think T1 is strong enough to find an early advantage in the mid lane for Faker, but Faker will then need to transfer his lead to try and get either side lane ahead. This game will be more dependent on the draft than anything else in my opinion, as T1 matchups well vs EDG. This is why I will have some T1 primary stacks exposure, but I will still be heavier on EDG big stacks and captains. T1 do get the counterpick in this match, so it will be interesting who will get the advantageous matchup. Regardless, I am taking EDG to win this game anyways, but wouldn't be surprised if T1 come out on top. Jiejie is great at counterganking his lanes, especially if draft shows which lanes T1 will be looking to target to find their advantages. Going to be a close game, but give me EDG to come out on top. Again, I will have exposure to big stacks from both sides.
9:45 AM DFM (+292) vs. 100T (-382)
This matchup should be another win for 100T just like the first meeting, which was a more quiet, macro-focused win. I expect DFM to up the pace and pressure in this rematch, as well as ban Closer's signature Viego. 100T bot lane absolutely stomped DFM in lane, while Abbedagge struggled heavily early, thanks to them giving Aria his pocket pick Zoe. Also, later game fights around the baron and elder dragon weren't the cleanest from 100T, which concerns me since they have to try and knock out either EDG or T1 tomorrow, both teams that are excellent past the 20-minute mark. This time around, I would expect 100T to tighten up their gameplay and come out on top for a clean win. But that's what scares me. This group seems almost too cut and dry, so give me DFM to upset 100T in this BO1, as a way to get different on this slate. DFM's top side of the map is their strength, while 100T plays through their bot lane more times than not. I really like Evi's Urgot that he displayed in the play-ins stage, as well as Steal's ability to play around his mid and top lane, as well as having a really deep champion pool. Assuming DFM bans Viego away from Closer and perhaps just hand over the Lee Sin, it's possible we get a very niche pick from Steal that would be Rek'Sai, a champ that is known to counter Lee Sin and has very strong early ganks. I would love to see some Rek'Sai come out here to get his solo lanes ahead early, then let Aria and Evi do the rest. It may be a longshot, but at these odds, I'll take a shot on the Japanese representatives for a one-off value play, in a matchup that should see plenty of action. If you prefer the 100T side, then FBI is definitely the target you want for value, as he and Huhi should win the bot lane matchup once again, and can potentially put up a good score even in a loss to T1.
10:40 AM DFM (+512) vs. T1 (-750)
T1 asboslutely demolished DFM in the first round robin matchup, off the back of Oner's Talon + Keria's Yuumi combo. They got ahead early and never looked back, keeping up the pressure which is how you should play vs inferior competition. I expect the same here. DFM gets the counterpick this time around and as mentioned before, we could see Steal pull out something like Rek'sai to throw T1 for a loop. Just like the DFM vs EDG match, even if DFM find an early lead, I am very confident in T1's ability to play the map and pull off rotations sooner than their counterparts. Another straightforward match in my eyes, with T1 coming out on top. I expect DFM to focus more on being able to contest these map rotations from T1, which is why i still like DFM one-offs for value. When T1 win, I don't think it will be another 22-3 dominant victory. I expect a slower paced game and a different draft strategy coming out from DFM on the red side.
11:35 AM EDG (-350) vs. 100T (+270)
EDG will have qualified for the knockout stage by this point, so maybe we see some experimental drafts and lackadaisical play from EDG, but I'm not predicting that to be the case. EDG is a force to be reckoned with and is not like their LPL counterparts in FPX, and won't drop the ball at all tomorrow. Perhaps 100T finds a lead in one of their lanes through the draft, but that still means you have to overcome two other lanes of EDG. After 100T were absolutely SMACKED by EDG in the first round robin, I don't see them taking 100T any lighter even if they have secured the knockout stage. Perhaps EDG forces an extra side lane dive or two and 100T one-offs may provide some value especially if they beat DFM, but again, as a way to differentiate, I will be looking to DFM for value over 100T. I mentioned before that FBI would be my go to value play for 100T, and i still think he is the better play than say Ssumday, who has to deal with Flandre who has had a great tourney so far. I think Ssumday will be lower owned however, so take that as you may. EDG win this match comfortably.
Top Captain Plays/Builds(in order)
Viper- shoutout Koby here from Rotoballer, as he is infatuated with EDG, and why shouldn't he be? They are looking absolutely clean so far this tournament with minor slipups. Viper is the main kill carry for EDG even in a more top-focused meta, and you will need an Evi one-off if you want to fit 4 EDG with EDG team slot, and a T1 one-off. Viper is my favorite captain play tomorrow.
JieJie- If EDG smashes tomorrow and wins all their games, which I think they will, then fitting four EDG and three T1 with T1 team slot is doable with JieJie captain. Problem is, you will have zero salary leftover, so your lineup will not be unique, and you will be chopping up the takedown with some friends. That's why I'm looking to pay up for Viper and even Scout with Aria for value, in order to differentiate my EDG/T1 lineups. Scout is right behind Viper in terms of kill share and gets a slight boost in this top-focused meta. But I still prefer Viper and will have exposure to both.
Oner- The young jungler for T1 flashed some great upside and has an aggressive champion pool. If T1 tops the group tomorrow, it will most likely be off the backs of Oner and Canna dominating the top side of the map, with Gumayusi being a later game insurance policy. I really like Jungle captains in this meta, but they can still be suboptimal considering Trundle and Jarvan IV are meta picks at the moment, meaning ADC and MID captains still have higher chances of being optimal. Paying up for Gumayusi is a good way to get different in T1 stacks, but as mentioned he has a small chance of being subbed out and has a lower KP% than Oner.
Faker- Not necessarily my favorite captain play on this slate at all, as typically he is more focused on getting his side lane teammates ahead with picks like Twisted Fate and Ryze, picks that also focus more on split pushing later in the game rather than team fighting, so not necessarily the kill hungry champs you want to takedown a tournament. However, it's very possible we get a Faker Leblanc game tomorrow vs EDG, in hopes of attacking Scout + JieJie just like DFM did when they found an early lead vs EDG. This pick does have the kill upside you're looking for in a captain play, but again may be a popular captain choice as you can fit four T1 members with Viper, Scout, and EDG team slot. I prefer Oner and Gumayusi if looking for T1 leverage captain plays tomorrow.
100T/DFM value - I will not have any exposure to 100T or DFM captains, but DFM Evi, Steal, Aria are my preferred one-off value plays tomorrow, in order, to fit the more expensive MID and ADC captains, as well as grabbing EDG and T1 team slots. I believe DFM value can pay off as long as they don't lose too hard vs T1 and EDG, and the same goes for 100T value one offs.
Summary
- TLDR: EDG finish 6-0, T1 finish 4-2, 100T and DFM finish 1-5. I still have less faith in 100T than C9, considering 100T showed me nothing in the first round robin. At least C9 managed to find early game leads vs the "top teams" in their group in the first round robin, while 100T have not, and looked somewhat shaky in their win vs inferior opponent DFM. I think Group B's top two favorites are stronger than Group A's former top two favorites in DK and FPX, meaning once again NA's chances of advancing are slim, but not impossible. I just think 100T are countered too hard by EDG's and T1's strengths.
- I think EDG is playing out of their minds ever since their comeback victory vs FPX in the LPL finals. I believe EDG has an advantage over T1 in every role except for top lane where I give a slight advantage to Canna, but even then, in their first match against each other, EDG stifled T1's win condition which was play through Canna's Jayce. EDG is just so clean, so as mentioned before, T1's chance to overcome EDG tomorrow will have to come through the Faker + Oner early pressure and shutdown of Scout. I like DFM for one-0ff value tomorrow, which could still turn out suboptimal if DFM and 100T both get stomped in their games vs EDG and T1 tomorrow, but it's a GPP play for sure. That being said, I will be fading DFM AND 100T in some of my lineups, but I like me some DFM for great leverage and value on tomorrow's slate, with some 100T one offs in play as well. Good luck tomorrow!
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