RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to the Round 4 DFS Showdown article. The young PGA Tour season made its way to Honolulu this week for the Sony Open, the year's first full-field event. After a record-setting first week at Kapalua, things are off to a hot start as players who weren't exempt last week gain their first valuable FedEx Cup points of the new season.
Sunday at Waialae Country Club will surely have its fair share of fireworks. With 15 guys within three shots of the lead, this tournament is far from over as the field chases down J.J. Spaun, who closed Saturday's round with a hectic bogey-birdie-bogey-birdie finish to end the day with a one-shot lead. The windy conditions throughout the week have highlighted the ball strikers and scramblers, as eight of the top 10 players on the leaderboard rank among the top six or better in at least one strokes gained metric regarding putting, around the green, or approach shots.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Blustery conditions have been constant in Honolulu this week, with much of the same expected for the final round. Those starting more in the middle of the day seem to have had the most firepower thus far, with guys near the lead struggling to stay there as the rounds go on. Given the first three days, it wouldn't be surprising to see someone outside the top five hoisting the trophy come tomorrow evening.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Russell Henley was a highlight of my Horse For The Course article earlier in the week because of his incredibly long and successful history at Waialae Country Club. Since winning this event in 2013, he's amassed two top-5s, two top-15s, one top-20, and only two missed cuts in 12 total starts. He also finds himself as one of the 15 players within three shots to start tomorrow's final round.
Henley has turned in consistent rounds of 66-67-67 this week, but taking a closer look, he hasn't put a full 18 holes together yet.
Friday's and Saturday's rounds have produced nine holes of nearly mistake-free golf, but he has struggled to get things under par on the other nine, which has diminished his strokes gained metrics. If things come together tomorrow, he's well within striking distance to make a move on the leaders.
Russell Henley rolls it in for EAGLE to continue his charge up the leaderboard on moving day! 🦅
NBC & Peacock | @SonyOpenHawaii pic.twitter.com/zpTLxB7VP0
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 11, 2025
Other Options: Hideki Matsuyama
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Maverick McNealy seems like a differently regarded player these days after his win at the RSM Classic in November and a subsequent T8 at The Sentry last week. He hasn't performed as well with the irons so far at Waialae as he did at Kapalua a few days ago, but he did steady things some on Saturday, ranking 15th in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.21).
He is still finding ways to climb the leaderboard, though, as he ranks third on the week in strokes gained putting (+1.89) and strokes gained off the tee (+1.12). The former Stanford Cardinal is three shots back at -10 under par.
Other Options: Keegan Bradley, Sepp Straka
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Brian Harman ended last week at Kapalua ranking eighth in strokes gained on approach for the final round. It took one round to re-find it at Waialae before gaining nearly two strokes on approach over the last two rounds.
He also ranks fifth in strokes gained around the green (+0.96) and 15th in strokes gained putting (+1.01). With the solid play combined with his impressive course history, Harman is a strong play for Sunday's finale.
Other Options: Harry Hall, J.J. Spaun, Nicolas Echavarria
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Nick Dunlap fits the mold perfectly for guys who have popped off over the first three days. He's only made three bogeys on the week and has frustratingly remained capped at -3 under par as his best score.
He ranked sixth in strokes gained putting (+2.57) and eighth in strokes gained on approach (+1.66) for Saturday's round. If both metrics stay solid, he could be one of a few guys to shoot their best scores of the week tomorrow.
From Alabama sophomore to two-time PGA TOUR winner and Rookie of the Year. Nick Dunlap has ARRIVED. 😤 pic.twitter.com/KrllJyJXOJ
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) December 19, 2024
Other Options: Lucas Glover, Stephan Jaeger, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Ryan Gerard is hoping to kick off his 2025 with a solid finish at Waialae tomorrow as he currently sits in a tie for 11th at -10 under par.
One of the new faces coming from the Korn Ferry Tour last season, the 25-year-old hopes to have a more successful time on the PGA Tour this time around than he did in 2023 when he only had four top 25 finishes, which ultimately relegated him back to the developmental circuit.
Against the field this week, Gerard ranks 10th in strokes gained putting (+1.47) and 24th in strokes gained on approach (+0.77). Those metrics won't blow anyone's mind, but for the most part, they have steadily improved round-over-round. If that continues tomorrow, the big week needed for this up-and-comer could soon come to fruition.
Other Options: Nick Taylor
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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