X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Round 4 PGA DFS Showdown Slate Picks - 2025 Sony Open

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to the Round 4 DFS Showdown article. The young PGA Tour season made its way to Honolulu this week for the Sony Open, the year's first full-field event. After a record-setting first week at Kapalua, things are off to a hot start as players who weren't exempt last week gain their first valuable FedEx Cup points of the new season.

Sunday at Waialae Country Club will surely have its fair share of fireworks. With 15 guys within three shots of the lead, this tournament is far from over as the field chases down J.J. Spaun, who closed Saturday's round with a hectic bogey-birdie-bogey-birdie finish to end the day with a one-shot lead. The windy conditions throughout the week have highlighted the ball strikers and scramblers, as eight of the top 10 players on the leaderboard rank among the top six or better in at least one strokes gained metric regarding putting, around the green, or approach shots.

Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times

 

Blustery conditions have been constant in Honolulu this week, with much of the same expected for the final round. Those starting more in the middle of the day seem to have had the most firepower thus far, with guys near the lead struggling to stay there as the rounds go on. Given the first three days, it wouldn't be surprising to see someone outside the top five hoisting the trophy come tomorrow evening.

 

Round 4 Strategy

The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point.

Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.

 

$10,000+

Favorite Play: Russell Henley was a highlight of my Horse For The Course article earlier in the week because of his incredibly long and successful history at Waialae Country Club. Since winning this event in 2013, he's amassed two top-5s, two top-15s, one top-20, and only two missed cuts in 12 total starts. He also finds himself as one of the 15 players within three shots to start tomorrow's final round.

Henley has turned in consistent rounds of 66-67-67 this week, but taking a closer look, he hasn't put a full 18 holes together yet.

Friday's and Saturday's rounds have produced nine holes of nearly mistake-free golf, but he has struggled to get things under par on the other nine, which has diminished his strokes gained metrics. If things come together tomorrow, he's well within striking distance to make a move on the leaders.

Other Options: Hideki Matsuyama

 

$9,000+

Favorite Play: Maverick McNealy seems like a differently regarded player these days after his win at the RSM Classic in November and a subsequent T8 at The Sentry last week. He hasn't performed as well with the irons so far at Waialae as he did at Kapalua a few days ago, but he did steady things some on Saturday, ranking 15th in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.21).

He is still finding ways to climb the leaderboard, though, as he ranks third on the week in strokes gained putting (+1.89) and strokes gained off the tee (+1.12). The former Stanford Cardinal is three shots back at -10 under par.

Other Options: Keegan Bradley, Sepp Straka

 

$8,000+

Favorite Play: Brian Harman ended last week at Kapalua ranking eighth in strokes gained on approach for the final round. It took one round to re-find it at Waialae before gaining nearly two strokes on approach over the last two rounds.

He also ranks fifth in strokes gained around the green (+0.96) and 15th in strokes gained putting (+1.01). With the solid play combined with his impressive course history, Harman is a strong play for Sunday's finale.

Other Options: Harry Hall, J.J. Spaun, Nicolas Echavarria

 

$7,000+

Favorite Play: Nick Dunlap fits the mold perfectly for guys who have popped off over the first three days. He's only made three bogeys on the week and has frustratingly remained capped at -3 under par as his best score.

He ranked sixth in strokes gained putting (+2.57) and eighth in strokes gained on approach (+1.66) for Saturday's round. If both metrics stay solid, he could be one of a few guys to shoot their best scores of the week tomorrow.

Other Options: Lucas Glover, Stephan Jaeger, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson

 

$6,000+

Favorite Play: Ryan Gerard is hoping to kick off his 2025 with a solid finish at Waialae tomorrow as he currently sits in a tie for 11th at -10 under par.

One of the new faces coming from the Korn Ferry Tour last season, the 25-year-old hopes to have a more successful time on the PGA Tour this time around than he did in 2023 when he only had four top 25 finishes, which ultimately relegated him back to the developmental circuit.

Against the field this week, Gerard ranks 10th in strokes gained putting (+1.47) and 24th in strokes gained on approach (+0.77). Those metrics won't blow anyone's mind, but for the most part, they have steadily improved round-over-round. If that continues tomorrow, the big week needed for this up-and-comer could soon come to fruition.

Other Options: Nick Taylor

 

Showdown Optimizer

The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.

Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Braden Schneider

Limited in Training Camp
Lars Eller

Recovering From Abdominal Procedure
Nick Jensen

in Danger of Missing Start of Season
Brandon Montour

to Miss Two Weeks After Ankle Surgery
Gabriel Landeskog

a "Full Go" for the Season
Samuel Girard

Avalanche Hope to Have Samuel Girard Available for Start of Season
Mackenzie Blackwood

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Tuch

Day-to-Day With Undisclosed Injury
Jordan Greenway

to Sit Out Training Camp
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Considered Day-to-Day
Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
Brooklyn Nets

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP