December 15, 2017

Potential Week 15 fantasy football sleepers and busts. RotoBaller's red zone tool identifies player TD scoring potential based on touches and opportunity.

Playoff time is finally here and finding players with scoring potential is more crucial than ever. Let's evaluate the all-important red zone stats to find great values at the skill positions. Just like targets are the lifeblood of a receiver's value in PPR leagues, red zone touches are the most relevant factor to consider for standard leagues.

In this article each week, we'll identify red zone risers and fallers who could see their fantasy value impacted by usage in the most critical area of the field. RotoBaller's Red Zone Sleepers tool is a great way to get an edge on the competition by identifying players with greater scoring opportunities.

Let's take a look at which players could be touchdown risers or fallers in fantasy football for Week 15 of the 2017 NFL season, based on red zone opportunities.

Red Zone Risers

RUNNING BACK

Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR) - 25.2% Red-zone touch%

Lets talk about Jonathan Stewart here for a moment, because this is important. Stewart has been better than a solid choice the past four weeks. He has scored five touchdowns in that span and has averaged 16 fantasy football points as well. He is climbing up the red-zone touch chart and is clearly the number one running back over fellow rookie teammate Christian McCaffrey. Stewart gets most of the hand-offs and dominates McCaffrey in red-zone touches, specifically inside the five-yard line. If you have Stewart on your team, you would be a fool not to at least put him in your flex spot against a not-so-great Green Bay defense in Week 15 in a semi-final matchup.

WIDE RECEIVER

Marquise Goodwin (WR, SF) - 14.5% Red-zone touch%

Marquise Goodwin has been rising up the red-zone touch chart and is one of the most picked-up WR on the waiver wire the past few weeks. Goodwin, who is a fifth-year player in the NFL, is on pace to finish with more receptions this year than his previous four seasons with the Buffalo Bills. He has averaged almost 13 fantasy football points in the past five weeks in half-PPR formats and is noticeably becoming new coming quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite target. The only issue is he has no red-zone touchdowns as of yet. He is long overdue and should be started in your flex in Week 15 at home against the Tennessee Titans.

TIGHT END

Julius Thomas (TE, MIA) - 14.7% Red-zone touch%

Yes, this is the same Julius Thomas who lit it up in Denver a few years back with Peyton Manning. No, he isn't quite doing the "light-up" thing with the Dolphins, but his red-zone numbers lately have been way better. He is currently fourth among all tight ends in red-zone percentage and has three red-zone touchdowns. If you are looking for a tight end to pick up and play, he would probably be a good candidate. He can maybe grab you that red-zone touchdown and put you over the top in your matchup. DISCLAIMER: If no touchdown occurs, numbers will be less than stellar.

Red Zone Fallers

RUNNING BACK

Dion Lewis  (RB, NE) - 12.5% Red-zone touch%

There are a lot of mouths to feed up in New England as far as running backs are concerned. Dion Lewis is one of them. It's really hard to trust any of the running backs (Rex Burkhead, James White) on this team as they all have a very similar red-zone touch percentage. The saving grace for Lewis is his ability to catch passes. He has been sharing the running back load with Burkhead as of late and will still probably serve as a decent flex position in a pivotal matchup this week against the Steelers.

WIDE RECEIVER

Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN) - 7.3% Red-zone touch%

Where have you gone Stefon Diggs? What looked to be a very promising fantasy football season in the first bunch of weeks actually has scaled the opposite way, and he has clearly relinquished the number one WR slot to teammate Adam Thielen. Diggs, over the past four weeks has totaled only 7.4 fantasy football points and has scored zero touchdowns. His red-zone touch percentage is clearly declining. This is enough information to keep him on your bench and look for greener pastures, brighter lights, or any other cliche metaphor you can fit in here.

TIGHT END

Zach Ertz (TE, PHI) - 8.7% Red-zone touch%

Zach Ertz?! What? How? When? C'mon! I said the same thing before even writing up this blurb here. Ertz has been a top-three fantasy football tight end all season. A must start. Interestingly enough, he only has 12 red-zone touches out of the Eagles 138 plays. He makes the most out of these touches with seven touchdowns. However, MVP candidate and trusted dominating quarterback Carson Wentz is out for the year with an ACL tear and Nick Foles will be at the helm. It's actually a tougher decision than I thought it would be, but if you have a decent option as a backup, it might not be terrible idea to take a look a little more closely at who you are starting this week in a vital playoff matchup.

Red Zone Sleepers Tool

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