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At times, the dynasty football marketplace can feel like the Wild West. Player values move up and down based on any significant (or insignificant) transactions, news items, or social media posts.
With that said, we must always think about how certain players should be valued. What’s a player’s current value? Are they overvalued or undervalued by the dynasty community? Should you be looking to buy or throw them out the door? That’s what we’re aiming to do with our Dynasty Price Check series.
Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Today, we will examine Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and what we can expect from him in 2024.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!Justin Herbert Background
Herbert was selected sixth overall by the Chargers in the 2020 NFL Draft. When starter Tyrod Taylor was forced to miss action due to a bizarre incident where a trainer accidentally punctured his lung, the young rookie burst onto the scene. He finished as the QB9 in 2020 and looked like a superstar in the making.
What a throw ⚡️ What a catch.
Justin Herbert is putting on a show in his NFL debut.
📺 CBS
— The Athletic NFL (@TheAthleticNFL) September 20, 2020
He continued on an upward trajectory in 2021 throwing for over 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns en route to an overall QB2 finish. 2022 was a disappointment compared to what we saw during his first two years. Herbert battled through a rib cartilage injury that appeared to affect his play. He finished as the QB11. His 2023 was cut short when he fractured a finger on his throwing hand in a Week 14 loss to the Denver Broncos.
It’s been a tough couple of seasons for the former sixth-overall pick. Make no mistake though. He is still talented and is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Justin Herbert with a 🚀 for his 35th touchdown pass this year!
It’s a new single-season franchise record for the @chargers. (Via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/Qdo4MHrAPL
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 2, 2022
The Chargers signed their young quarterback to a five-year, $262.5 million deal last summer. He is tied to Los Angeles for the foreseeable future.
What is Justin Herbert Worth in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues?
Herbert is currently ranked as the QB8 in our up-to-date dynasty rankings. This is a fair ranking given his last two seasons and lack of rushing production. KeepTradeCut (KTC), which crowdsources data from dynasty players to create rankings and values, also shows Herbert as the dynasty QB8. KTC estimates his trade value as an early 2024 first-round pick in superflex leagues and a late first-round pick in one quarterback leagues.
Earlier this offseason, before all the Chargers’ cap-saving moves, it felt like a good idea to try and down-tier off Herbert for an underrated quarterback with equal upside. I tried to do exactly this across my dynasty portfolio. In a 12-team, superflex, one-point tight end premium league, I made the following trade:
Give - Justin Herbert
Get- Kyler Murray, TE Michael Mayer
This deal was made before the Chargers gave Keenan Allen and Mike Williams the boot. Looking at the Chargers’ salary cap situation, I had anticipated this might happen and wanted to move off Herbert (before his value dipped) for a quarterback I felt was undervalued but still gave me the same upside. I also picked up a player in Mayer I believe has a big upside in a full-point tight end premium league.
Herbert seems to have fallen out of favor with the dynasty community after the Chargers hired Greg Roman to call plays and sent their top two receivers packing. Ironically, now it feels like the right move is to go buy Herbert.
Quarterbacks to post multiple 24.0+ PPG Seasons in their first four years
[ Patrick Mahomes ]
[ Josh Allen ]
[ Lamar Jackson ]
[ Justin Herbert ]yet, according to @KeepTradeCut, no player in the Top 50 has lost more value over the past month than Herbert
BUY JUSTIN HERBERT pic.twitter.com/MjXn5w4N76
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) March 21, 2024
A few months ago, you could make the argument that Herbert was a sell. Today, he’s arguably a great buy-low. Man, if that doesn’t tell you how crazy the dynasty marketplace is, I don’t know what will.
Justin Herbert 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
While he remains one of the better dynasty football quarterbacks, Herbert’s 2024 outlook is, well, not great. He lost pass catchers Allen and Williams. Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer are currently his top receivers. Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman, and their run-heavy offensive scheme are now in town. They are determined to take some pressure off Herbert and are expected to lean heavily on the run game.
From an NFL perspective, this makes perfect sense. It’s not a bad idea to balance an offense with an efficient running game. From a fantasy football perspective though, we can’t really say this is good news for Herbert. A drop in passing volume will hurt and force him to be uber-efficient to produce fantasy-viable statistics. And look, that might still happen. Herbert is a talented enough player to pull it off. However, Johnston and Palmer as WR1 and WR2 don’t make it feel like that’s a realistic expectation.
It stands to reason that Los Angeles will select a receiver at fifth overall in next week’s NFL Draft, but Harbaugh has hinted they will take an offensive lineman or even trade back. It is a deep receiver class, but there’s a clear drop-off between Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, and the other receivers available.
Herbert has never really presented a ton of rushing upside for fantasy football. His career high in rushing yards is 302. That’s solid for a pocket quarterback, but not enough to give Konami Code appeal. This also hurts his outlook.
While Herbert has been one of the best dynasty fantasy football quarterbacks, it might be wise for redraft players to pass on him in 2024. His situation is undoubtedly the worst it’s ever been. There are major question marks at receiver along with Los Angeles’ offensive scheme. He remains an uber-talented player and is someone you should want on all your dynasty rosters. For 2024 though, it’s wise to temper expectations and look elsewhere for your starting fantasy quarterback.
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