Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational

March 3, 2025

Todd McGill's DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Picks for daily fantasy golf based on course history

The Florida swing is off to a fast start, as the middle-of-the-pack PGA Tour players gave us a helluva show this past week at PGA National. From Jake Knapp's 59 to his Sunday collapse, having Spieth and Fowler in the mix again, to Joe Highsmith's unbelievable weekend, the Cognizant Classic was full of everything golf fans could have wanted. It was far from the grueling test it has garnered through the years, which poses interesting questions ahead of Bay Hill this week and TPC Sawgrass the next.

As mentioned, Bay Hill is the next stop on the list as the Tour's best players come back together for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. One of the more prestigious events, winning this tournament is a big feather in a player's cap. After the softer conditions yielded record-low scores at PGA National, it will be interesting to see how players fare this week at a venue that has varied widely in difficulty over the last few iterations.

Horse For The Course is an article highlighting players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For some of the favorite DFS plays of the week, check out the Core Four article written by my buddy, Joe Nicely, here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using the Promo Code TDG for an extra discount at checkout!

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational

After struggling with a rib injury for much of 2025 that has had little clarification to the public, Xander Schauffele is planning on teeing it up Thursday for his second event of the season. Many wondered when we would see the X-Man return to action to prepare for The Masters in April. Injuries to the midsection are a peculiar ailment for golfers, and it seems that he was in no rush to push the issue, given how much time he's taken to heal.

Scottie Scheffler is coming to defend his title as the still-dominant force he was at this point last season- albeit with much less hardware. However, given the strange, injury-riddled start to the season for both Schauffele and Scheffler, the lack of wins at this point in the season is understandable. Though the World No. One seems as close as ever to capturing another title, which could easily come this week.

I had the pleasure of driving through Bay Hill a few weeks ago while in Orlando for the PGA Show, and even then, the course looked green and lush. I imagine the course will be playing difficult if the rain forecasted on Tuesday and Wednesday don't force the same soft conditions that made last week so easy. Scottie Scheffeler shooting -15 under par last year isn't something Mr. Palmer would have liked at his event.

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Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Par 72- 7,466 | Greens: Tifeagle Bermudagrass | Designed By: Dick Wilson/Joe Lee

The longtime home of Arnold Palmer, Bay Hill Club & Lodge is one of the more historical places in golf, certainly over the last 25 years. Maybe not the most iconic layout or marvelous course design as other places we think of in this atmosphere of world-class venues, but the 18th hole has brought fans some truly spectacular moments that only the prestige of winning The King's event could provide. With many top players competing at a high level, 2025 could be another year of continued drama.

Iron play tends to take a backseat this week and is replaced by the need to find advantageous routes off the tee and have soft hands around the green. Scheffler led the field last year in both strokes gained metrics en route to a five-stroke victory. The layout doesn't benefit one particular skillset, and length off the tee doesn't carry the same weight as previous weeks. But it tests every facet of a player's game and usually produces a top-heavy leaderboard.

Typically, the strokes gained on approach numbers are subdued because of firm conditions that force players to score from different areas of the course, but the softer the conditions, the more approach play will affect scores. My recommendation is to be cognizant of the weather over the next couple of days and adjust DFS lineups accordingly.

Recent AP Invitational Winners

• 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15)
• 2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
• 2021: Bryson Dechambeau (-11)
• 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)

The Horse

Scottie Scheffler

• Notable Finishes: 1st ('22 &'24), T4 ('23)

I'm sure this will come as no shock to anyone, but Scottie Scheffler has owned Bay Hill in recent memory. Having won this event two out of the past three seasons, he is undoubtedly the one to watch for come Thursday. He leads the field by more than a shot in total strokes gained average at this event (+2.856) and is in the top five in three of the four individual strokes gained metrics.

The former Texas Longhorn has admittedly not been as sharp with the driver as we've come to expect from him, and the short game finally showed signs of life at his last start at Torrey Pines. No one will be surprised if this is the week he returns to his winning ways.

The Ponies

Rory McIlroy

• Notable Finishes: 1st ('18), T2 ('23), T4 ('17)

571-yard par 5.

Rory just went driver, 7-iron. pic.twitter.com/0kwG8vap4i

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 2, 2025

Much like his highly discussed drought in majors despite constantly being in contention, Rory McIlroy has had similar fortune at Bay Hill in recent memory. Last year's T21 finish was the second-worst placement in 10 career starts for the Northern Irishman. That should speak volumes about the level of play he's consistently produced here.

He's successfully averaging positive metrics across the board over his last 20 career rounds (past five seasons), but perhaps none more frustrating than the +0.222 in strokes gained putting. It's always good to see him in green figures in this metric, but anyone who's watched this event year-over-year has noticed his woes on these greens.

Corey Conners

• Notable finishes: 3rd ('21), T11 ('22)

Corey Conners drives it from 325 yards to 2 FEET FROM THE HOLE on the par-4 14th. 😦

📺: Golf Channel and @peacock pic.twitter.com/ILQVIkl1Io

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) May 5, 2023

This pick gets much more interesting should approach play become a more important factor, as Corey Conners is an anomaly to how most players have found success here. Riding a +1.320 strokes gained on approach average over his last 18 rounds, the Canadian doesn't bode well on these Bermuda surfaces, which is a bit surprising given his success at other courses with similar grass types.

Iron play hasn't been the greatest of late, but this is a point in the schedule that has typically been much kinder to the 33-year-old. While expectations should be held in check until we see where his game is after a couple of weeks off, he should get things headed in the right direction.

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Ben Griffin

• Notable Finishes: T14 ('23)

Ben Griffin: Topped it. Holed it.

Golf, man. pic.twitter.com/Wp66otbnNJ

— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) January 19, 2025

Truthfully, there are more qualified players for the final spot in this article than Ben Griffin. His current form after posting back-to-back T4 finishes in Mexico and PGA National, coupled with the one-tournament sample, ultimately gives him the nod. Does that necessarily fit the criteria for a course history article? I think so!

Griffin has shown more comfortability on bermuda putting surfaces in his young PGA Tour career, and his prototypical form on approach was actually his lone disappointing metric at this event in 2023. Given the recent production with his irons, I look for his history at Bay Hill to get even better come Sunday evening.

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