X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

First Base: Overvalued/Undervalued for Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues

Paul Goldschmidt - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Picks

Teams have already reported to spring training, which means the MLB season is right around the corner. The first regular season series of the year will take place between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres on March 20-21 in Seoul, South Korea.

That means if you are in a fantasy baseball league, now is the perfect time to start prepping for your league. More specifically, if you're in a points league, this is the article for you. This piece will go through which first basemen are going too high and too low in fantasy drafts this year.

So, let's dive in and see which first basemen are being overvalued and undervalued in points leagues this year.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has a current ADP of 65. This is too low for a player who has hit over 30 home runs and 30 doubles in five of the past six seasons. Of course, his ADP in the sixth round is this low because of his down year in 2023. Goldschmidt still finished the year with solid hitting numbers.

The Cardinals' first baseman finished with a .268 batting average, 25 HRs, 80 RBI, and 31 doubles in 154 games. Regression was expected for Goldschmidt as he entered his age-35 season. However, he was still hitting the ball hard with a 50.8% hard-hit rate -- which landed him in the top 7% in the Majors last year -- and his 12.7% walk rate was in the top 11%.

Goldschmidt also continues to stay healthy, which is another key to his fantasy value. He has played over 150 games in eight straight seasons, and that availability mixed with his power numbers make him a great high-floor pick in the early rounds. The first baseman should be going earlier than pick 65.

Verdict: Undervalued

 

Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies

There's no doubt that Colorado Rockies first baseman/outfielder Nolan Jones had a fantastic rookie season in 2023. He finished the year with a .297 batting average, 20 HRs, 62 RBI, 22 doubles, and 20 stolen bases. On top of that, he gets to play at the most hitter-friendly ballpark at Coors Field. The future is definitely bright for Jones.

However, his ADP is way too high this year in just his second MLB season. His ADP on Yahoo is 47, and even his average ADP among all fantasy baseball sites (65) is too high in 2024.

Jones' numbers were great last year, though, there could be some regression coming for him at the plate. His expected batting average was .249, which was 48 points lower than what he finished with. The rookie also didn't hit the ball hard with a 41.3% hard-hit rate (below the league average), and he struck out on 29.7% of his plate appearances last year.

It wouldn't be bad to take a chance on Jones if he winds up falling in the eighth round, though, that seems unlikely. The first baseman is a risk at his current ADP, and there are certainly better options to choose from like Goldschmidt, Alex Bregman, and Logan Gilbert, all of whom are going around him in drafts.

Verdict: Overvalued

 

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds first baseman Spencer Steer is another second-year player that makes this list. Steer also had a great year in 2023, hitting .271 with 23 HRs, 86 RBI, and 37 doubles. Like Jones, there should be some regression at the plate for the California native.

Steer's metrics do not back the year that he had in 2023, as his expected batting average (.252), average exit velocity (88.7 mph), hard-hit rate (37.2%), and expected slugging (.417) were all below league average. He did provide some solid numbers in several categories. However, his 95.2 ADP this year is a bit too high.

Steer should still be able to hit over 20 HRs in 2024, but his batting average and RBI numbers could take a fall this upcoming season. I'd prefer Dylan Cease, Nick Castellanos, or Cole Ragans over the Reds' first baseman at his current ADP.

Verdict: Overvalued

 

Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers

What more does Texas Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe have to do to get more love in fantasy? Lowe's current ADP is 186, which is way too low for a player who hits at the top of one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

Lowe's numbers did decline from 2022 to 2023. However, there's no reason he should be going in the final rounds of fantasy baseball drafts in 2024. He hit .262 with 17 HRs, 82 RBI, 38 doubles, and three triples across 161 games. His 161 games last year also marked the third straight year he has played over 157 contests.

The thing to like most about Lowe is the fact that he will hit third in the Rangers' lineup, leading to plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. With Marcus Semien and Corey Seager hitting in front of him in 2023, the first baseman drove in a career-high 82 runs. That number might increase this season if Seager can stay healthy.

Lowe has driven in at least 70 runs in three straight seasons while hitting a career-high 27 HRs just two seasons ago in 2022. He is certainly worth a shot in the later rounds, and there's a strong chance he tops 20 HRs and over 80 RBI in one of the best offenses in the Majors.

Verdict: Undervalued

 

Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor is coming off a career year in 2023, where he hit .308, 17 HRs, 97 RBI, and 31 doubles. However, Naylor's ADP currently sits at 128. He's usually the 16th to 17th first baseman off the board in drafts this year.

Naylor has proven that he can contribute at a reliable level in fantasy with his solid home run, RBI, and double numbers over his career. The first baseman has totaled at least 17 HRs, 75 RBI, and 28 doubles in back-to-back seasons, which are key categories for points leagues. He also only struck out 68 times last year and has a career .270 average over his five-year career.

That all makes Naylor a solid option in the middle round of drafts. Spencer Torkelson, Anthony Santander, and Yainer Diaz are all going sooner than him in drafts this year, but the Guardians' first baseman might be the better value -- given his consistency over the past two seasons.

Verdict: Undervalued



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Joe Ross37 mins ago

Being Built Up As A Starter
Taylor Moore38 mins ago

An Intriguing Option At Mexican Open
Shota Imanaga43 mins ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Rasmus Hojgaard59 mins ago

Eyeing A Major Bounce-Back At Mexican Open
Sam Hentges1 hour ago

Placed On 60-Day Injured List
Michael Kim1 hour ago

Looks To Keep Momentum Going At Mexican Open
Kansas City Chiefs1 hour ago

Transition Tag More Plausible For Trey Smith
Sam Stevens1 hour ago

Continues His Excellent 2025 Season At Genesis Invitational
Patrick Rodgers1 hour ago

Finishes Tied For Third At Genesis Invitational
Thorbjorn Olesen1 hour ago

Makes First PGA Tour Start In 2025 At Mexico Open
Justin Lower1 hour ago

Playing Well Heading To Mexico Open
Kurt Kitayama1 hour ago

Returns To Mexico Open
Noah Schultz1 hour ago

Making Cactus League Debut Next Week
Harry Hall1 hour ago

Stumbles At WM Phoenix Open, Looks Ahead To Mexico Open
PGA1 hour ago

Chris Gotterup Searching For Consistency Heading To Mexico Open
Akshay Bhatia1 hour ago

Highlights Field For Mexico Open
Aaron Rai1 hour ago

Looks To Get Back On Track At Mexican Open
Aaron Rodgers1 hour ago

Could Jump At The Chance To Play For Rams
Kyle Nicolas2 hours ago

Faces Live Hitters On Tuesday
Sam Darnold2 hours ago

Vikings In No Rush To Place Franchise Tag On Sam Darnold
Jacob Stallings2 hours ago

Slated To Be Primary Catcher
Andy Dalton2 hours ago

Panthers Agree On Two-Year Deal
Cincinnati Bengals2 hours ago

Bengals Trying To Land Extensions For Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Trey Hendrickson
Drew Thorpe2 hours ago

Throws 20-Pitch Bullpen Session
Milwaukee Brewers2 hours ago

Jesus Made Transitioning Well To The States
Ryan Palmer2 hours ago

Avoid Ryan Palmer Like The Plague At Mexico Open
Robert Gasser2 hours ago

Expected To Throw Off A Mound In April
Sal Frelick2 hours ago

Bulks Up
Jeffrey Springs3 hours ago

Not Facing Any Restrictions In 2025
Matteo Manassero3 hours ago

In For A Long Week In Mexico
Harrison Bader3 hours ago

To See Plenty Of Time In Left Field
DJ LeMahieu3 hours ago

Reset In The Offseason
Liam Hendriks3 hours ago

Sits At 93-94 MPH On Tuesday
Wilyer Abreu3 hours ago

Under The Weather
Masataka Yoshida4 hours ago

Plans To Be Ready For Opening Day
Luis Rengifo4 hours ago

To Be Ready For Opening Day
James Wood4 hours ago

Dealing With Quadriceps Tendinitis
Shane McClanahan4 hours ago

Clocking In At 97-98 MPH
Daniel Jones4 hours ago

A Potential Target For Colts
Adam Thielen4 hours ago

Panthers To Give Adam Thielen A Pay Raise?
Washington Commanders4 hours ago

Jesse Madden Joins Commanders Coaching Staff
New Orleans Saints4 hours ago

Scott Tolzien Joining Saints Offensive Staff
Jake Knapp4 hours ago

Returns To Defend His Title At The Mexico Open
Charley Hoffman5 hours ago

A Great Bounce-Back Candidate In Mexico
Shohei Ohtani5 hours ago

Throws Another Bullpen On Tuesday
Colton Cowser5 hours ago

Takes Live Batting Practice On Tuesday
Ben Griffin5 hours ago

A Potential Sneaky Play At Mexico Open
Blades Brown5 hours ago

Making Second Professional Start In Mexico
Stefon Diggs6 hours ago

Texans Won't Use Franchise Tag On Stefon Diggs
Najee Harris7 hours ago

Steelers Unlikely To Use Franchise Tag On Najee Harris
New York Jets8 hours ago

D.J. Reed Expected To Test The Open Market
Miami Dolphins8 hours ago

Jevon Holland Unlikely To Receive Franchise Tag
NFL8 hours ago

Cam Ward Undecided If He'll Throw At Scouting Combine
Jared Goff8 hours ago

Lions Offense To Remain "Predicated" On Jared Goff
New Orleans Saints18 hours ago

Saints Interview Jemal Singleton For Offensive-Coordinator Job
Baltimore Ravens18 hours ago

Ben Cleveland Arrested For DUI
Brandon McManus18 hours ago

Packers Likely To Re-Sign Brandon McManus
Green Bay Packers18 hours ago

Packers Expected To Release Jaire Alexander
Cleveland Browns19 hours ago

Browns To Offer Myles Garrett A Mega-Extension?
Dallas Cowboys19 hours ago

Cowboys Could Draft Ashton Jeanty
Nathan MacKinnon24 hours ago

Pots Two Goals In Monday's Win
Sam Reinhart24 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Assists Against Finland
Lucas Raymond1 day ago

Tries To Extend Point Streak Against USA
William Byron1 day ago

Trusts His Instinct To Win Second Straight Daytona 500
Jake Guentzel1 day ago

Looks To Extend Multi-Point Streak Monday
Jimmie Johnson1 day ago

Has Unexpected Emotions After Podium Finish At Daytona 500
Jake Oettinger1 day ago

Starts Against Sweden
John Hunter Nemechek1 day ago

Gets First Career Top-Five Finish At Daytona 500
Jake Sanderson1 day ago

Slots Into Team USA Lineup
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Ruled Out Monday
Gregory Rodrigues1 day ago

Gets TKO'd At UFC Vegas 102
Erik Van Rooyen1 day ago

Erik van Rooyen May Surprise At Vidanta Vallarta
Jared Cannonier1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
PGA1 day ago

Matti Schmid Heads To Mexico To Round Out Rough Edges
Nazim Sadykhov1 day ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
PGA1 day ago

C.T. Pan One To Watch Out For In Mexico
Ismael Bonfim1 day ago

Suffers Fifth Career Loss At UFC Vegas 102
Rodolfo Vieira1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 102
Andre Petroski1 day ago

Extends His Win Streak
Stephen Curry1 day ago

Named All-Star Game MVP
Ryan Blaney1 day ago

Strong Daytona 500 Performance Falls Short Of Victory
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Continues To Struggle At Daytona After Underwhelming Result
Chase Briscoe1 day ago

Scores First Top-Five Finish With Joe Gibbs Racing At Daytona 500
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Quietly Finishes The Daytona 500 As The Runner-Up
Ross Chastain1 day ago

Daytona 500 Effort Ends In An Early Crash
Adam Wilsby1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Extension With Nashville
Filip Gustavsson1 day ago

Feeling Better, Expected To Be Available On Monday
Kevin Lankinen1 day ago

Starting On Monday
Cale Makar1 day ago

Viewed As Game-Time Call
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Being Evaluated
Connor Matthews1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 102
Jose Delgado1 day ago

Gets Quick Win In Debut At UFC Vegas 102
Dylan Budka1 day ago

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss At UFC Vegas 102
Edmen Shahbazyan1 day ago

Gets Knockout Win At UFC Vegas 102
Calvin Kattar1 day ago

Suffers Fourth Straight Loss At UFC Vegas 102
Youssef Zalal1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Vegas 102
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Fights For The Win But Gets Eliminated In Last-Lap Crash
Austin Cindric2 days ago

Has Best Run At Daytona 500 Until Last-Lap Crash
Justin Allgaier2 days ago

Earns First Top-10 Finish Since 2015
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

.'s Sour Luck Continues With Early Daytona 500 Crash
Helio Castroneves2 days ago

Eliminated From Daytona 500 In Crash With Teammate
Tyler Herro2 days ago

Wins Three-Point Contest
Donovan Mitchell2 days ago

Evan Mobley Win Skills Challenge
Mac McClung2 days ago

Wins Slam Dunk Contest
LeBron James2 days ago

Won't Play In All-Star Game
Joey Logano2 days ago

May Be A Favorite To Find The Front At Daytona, But What About For DFS?
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Is Denny Hamlin Worth Rostering For Daytona Lineups?
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Could Chase Elliott Be Worth Rostering At Daytona This Week?
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Should DFS Players Trust Ryan Blaney This Week At Daytona?
Alex Bowman2 days ago

Will Be One Of The Best DFS Plays Of The Week For Daytona
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Is A DFS Lock For Daytona Lineups
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Real Shot Of Winning But Should Be Avoided For DFS
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Undervalued For The Win At Daytona
Patrik Laine3 days ago

Collects Two Assists Saturday
Mikael Granlund3 days ago

Pots Overtime Winner Against Sweden
Filip Gustavsson3 days ago

Battling An Illness
Jordan Binnington3 days ago

Earns Another Start For Team Canada
Connor Hellebuyck3 days ago

Remains In Team USA Crease Saturday
Sam Bennett3 days ago

Enters Canada's Lineup On Saturday
Cale Makar3 days ago

A Game-Time Call Saturday
Sam Steel3 days ago

Signs Two-Year Extension
Thomas Harley3 days ago

Joining Team Canada
4 days ago

Kevin Knox II Expected To Sign 10-Day Contract
Damion Baugh4 days ago

Signs Two-Way Deal
4 days ago

Isaiah Wong Waived By Hornets
Jared Butler4 days ago

76ers Converting Jared Butler To Standard Contract
Gregory Rodrigues4 days ago

Searching For Fourth Consecutive UFC Win On Saturday
Yves Missi4 days ago

Suffers Hyperextended Knee On Thursday
Jared Cannonier4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Nazim Sadykhov4 days ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Davis4 days ago

Sidelined For "At Least" Four Weeks
Ismael Bonfim4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 102
Rodolfo Vieira4 days ago

Seeking Victory In Eighth UFC Appearance
Daniel Gafford4 days ago

Out At Least Six Weeks
Andre Petroski4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Amir Coffey5 days ago

Ruled Out For Thursday
Brandon Ingram5 days ago

Expected To Miss At Least One More Month
Chet Holmgren5 days ago

Back In Action Thursday
Anthony Edwards5 days ago

Ready To Play Thursday
Nikola Jović5 days ago

Nikola Jovic Available Thursday
Duncan Robinson5 days ago

Good To Go Against Mavericks
Gary Payton II5 days ago

Out Against Rockets
Mike Conley5 days ago

Not Ready To Return Thursday
Rudy Gobert5 days ago

Out On Thursday
Connor Matthews5 days ago

Opens Up UFC Vegas 102 Main Card
Jose Delgado5 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 102
Dylan Budka5 days ago

Searching For First UFC Win On Saturday
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Backup Quarterbacks To Buy In Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Leagues

Superflex dynasty fantasy football leagues have become increasingly popular in recent years. Many gamers prefer them as they believe the importance of quarterbacks is on par with that of the NFL. While that holds, this means it’s important to roster several backup quarterbacks as well. Signal-callers go down every year, and you don’t want to […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Late-Round Values To Target In Dynasty Fantasy Football Start-Up Drafts

The most important part of every Dynasty fantasy football league is the startup draft. There's nothing more impactful that you can do to boost your team in the short term than nail your picks in the drafts. But as the rounds wear on, less and less obvious picks are present. By the late rounds, it […]


Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Top AFC West Players To Buy In Dynasty Fantasy Football Leagues

While the 2024 fantasy football season is in the rearview mirror, the grind never stops for dynasty players. However, now is the perfect time for fantasy players to look into trade options in their dynasty leagues. Let’s look at eight players from the AFC West that fantasy players should explore trading for this offseason.Be sure […]


Travis Hunter - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Prospects, NFL Rookies

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Rookie Rankings (Pre-NFL Draft) -Abdul Carter, Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, and more

We are only a few days removed from the Super Bowl, but rookie drafts are already underway, and the fantasy football landscape is, once again, being reshaped. As we get closer to the NFL Draft in Green Bay, understand that the market will change several times. It'll change after the combine, during free agency, and […]


Derrick Henry - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

The Running Back Age Cliff: When Should You Fade Aging Fantasy Football Veterans?

The NFL and other professional sports leagues are all centered around collecting the most genetically gifted and physically talented athletes and having them compete against each other. The mental aspect of the game is important as well, but without the raw physical ability, one simply cannot compete in the big leagues. For running backs, toughness, […]


Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

AFC Players To Sell In Dynasty Fantasy Football Leagues

While knowing which players to buy in dynasty fantasy football leagues is essential to success, it’s equally important to know which players to sell. You never want to get stuck “holding the bag” on players who seem to be heading down the wrong path. Surprisingly, many dynasty gamers stubbornly refuse to move off their prior […]


Tre Harris - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Draft

Rookies to Target in Early 2025 Fantasy Football Best Ball Drafts

Best ball fantasy football formats are all about hunting for as much upside as possible. Drafting players who can produce explosive scoring games, like those in the 20 PPR point range or more, is massively important, especially in the later rounds. The uncertainty surrounding most NFL rookies and the constant whiffs by consensus opinions of […]


Rashee Rice - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL wr, Draft Sleepers

AFC Players To Buy In Dynasty Fantasy Football Leagues

The offseason is the most important time for dynasty fantasy football managers to improve their teams. This could mean acquiring a star player who might be coming off a down year or trading away a top dynasty asset for multiple first-round picks. Many of those decisions will come down to how your team is currently […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

NFL Draft RB Prospect Comparisons: Which 2025 Rookies Resemble Today’s Fantasy Football Stars?

It’s no secret that the 2025 NFL Draft class of running backs projects to be one of the deepest in recent memory. There are a slew of talented young backs with successful college careers who will hope to hear their names called between April 24 and 26. After the Super Bowl season that Saquon Barkley […]


Dak Prescott - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFC Players To Sell In Dynasty Fantasy Football Leagues

There are always players other dynasty fantasy football managers may still have faith in. It's not always readily apparent which will be good buys and which ones you should sell, but that's what I'm here for. It can be hard to let go of players who have helped you win in the past. But you […]


Trevor Lawrence - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Breakouts: Quarterback

With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, it is officially the 2025 fantasy football draft season. While the landscape across the league is subject to change significantly throughout free agency and the NFL Draft, it’s never too early to get a head start on prepping for your draft. While three of the usual suspects […]


Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers From the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs

The NFL playoffs give fantasy football managers a unique chance to see how fantasy-relevant players perform in a higher-pressure situation than the regular season. Usually, performing well against higher-quality defenses, which often find their way into the postseason, can be revealing of a player's skill. It doesn't always give us a clear picture of how […]


Noah Gray - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Tight End Sleepers

Backup Tight Ends To Buy In Dynasty Fantasy Football Leagues

Any time a starting tight end goes down, their backup's stock immediately rises. Maybe you were like me last season, jumping to pick up Grant Calcaterra for the wrong game. I could have had him on my roster for free if I had grabbed him before Dallas Goedert got hurt. It is a tight end […]