X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

First Base: Overvalued/Undervalued for Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues

Paul Goldschmidt - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Picks

Joey Pollizze 1B fantasy baseball draft sleepers for points leagues (2024). Some of these first basemen are draft day values at their current fantasy ADP.

Teams have already reported to spring training, which means the MLB season is right around the corner. The first regular season series of the year will take place between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres on March 20-21 in Seoul, South Korea.

That means if you are in a fantasy baseball league, now is the perfect time to start prepping for your league. More specifically, if you're in a points league, this is the article for you. This piece will go through which first basemen are going too high and too low in fantasy drafts this year.

So, let's dive in and see which first basemen are being overvalued and undervalued in points leagues this year.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has a current ADP of 65. This is too low for a player who has hit over 30 home runs and 30 doubles in five of the past six seasons. Of course, his ADP in the sixth round is this low because of his down year in 2023. Goldschmidt still finished the year with solid hitting numbers.

The Cardinals' first baseman finished with a .268 batting average, 25 HRs, 80 RBI, and 31 doubles in 154 games. Regression was expected for Goldschmidt as he entered his age-35 season. However, he was still hitting the ball hard with a 50.8% hard-hit rate -- which landed him in the top 7% in the Majors last year -- and his 12.7% walk rate was in the top 11%.

Goldschmidt also continues to stay healthy, which is another key to his fantasy value. He has played over 150 games in eight straight seasons, and that availability mixed with his power numbers make him a great high-floor pick in the early rounds. The first baseman should be going earlier than pick 65.

Verdict: Undervalued

 

Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies

There's no doubt that Colorado Rockies first baseman/outfielder Nolan Jones had a fantastic rookie season in 2023. He finished the year with a .297 batting average, 20 HRs, 62 RBI, 22 doubles, and 20 stolen bases. On top of that, he gets to play at the most hitter-friendly ballpark at Coors Field. The future is definitely bright for Jones.

However, his ADP is way too high this year in just his second MLB season. His ADP on Yahoo is 47, and even his average ADP among all fantasy baseball sites (65) is too high in 2024.

Jones' numbers were great last year, though, there could be some regression coming for him at the plate. His expected batting average was .249, which was 48 points lower than what he finished with. The rookie also didn't hit the ball hard with a 41.3% hard-hit rate (below the league average), and he struck out on 29.7% of his plate appearances last year.

It wouldn't be bad to take a chance on Jones if he winds up falling in the eighth round, though, that seems unlikely. The first baseman is a risk at his current ADP, and there are certainly better options to choose from like Goldschmidt, Alex Bregman, and Logan Gilbert, all of whom are going around him in drafts.

Verdict: Overvalued

 

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds first baseman Spencer Steer is another second-year player that makes this list. Steer also had a great year in 2023, hitting .271 with 23 HRs, 86 RBI, and 37 doubles. Like Jones, there should be some regression at the plate for the California native.

Steer's metrics do not back the year that he had in 2023, as his expected batting average (.252), average exit velocity (88.7 mph), hard-hit rate (37.2%), and expected slugging (.417) were all below league average. He did provide some solid numbers in several categories. However, his 95.2 ADP this year is a bit too high.

Steer should still be able to hit over 20 HRs in 2024, but his batting average and RBI numbers could take a fall this upcoming season. I'd prefer Dylan Cease, Nick Castellanos, or Cole Ragans over the Reds' first baseman at his current ADP.

Verdict: Overvalued

 

Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers

What more does Texas Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe have to do to get more love in fantasy? Lowe's current ADP is 186, which is way too low for a player who hits at the top of one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

Lowe's numbers did decline from 2022 to 2023. However, there's no reason he should be going in the final rounds of fantasy baseball drafts in 2024. He hit .262 with 17 HRs, 82 RBI, 38 doubles, and three triples across 161 games. His 161 games last year also marked the third straight year he has played over 157 contests.

The thing to like most about Lowe is the fact that he will hit third in the Rangers' lineup, leading to plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. With Marcus Semien and Corey Seager hitting in front of him in 2023, the first baseman drove in a career-high 82 runs. That number might increase this season if Seager can stay healthy.

Lowe has driven in at least 70 runs in three straight seasons while hitting a career-high 27 HRs just two seasons ago in 2022. He is certainly worth a shot in the later rounds, and there's a strong chance he tops 20 HRs and over 80 RBI in one of the best offenses in the Majors.

Verdict: Undervalued

 

Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor is coming off a career year in 2023, where he hit .308, 17 HRs, 97 RBI, and 31 doubles. However, Naylor's ADP currently sits at 128. He's usually the 16th to 17th first baseman off the board in drafts this year.

Naylor has proven that he can contribute at a reliable level in fantasy with his solid home run, RBI, and double numbers over his career. The first baseman has totaled at least 17 HRs, 75 RBI, and 28 doubles in back-to-back seasons, which are key categories for points leagues. He also only struck out 68 times last year and has a career .270 average over his five-year career.

That all makes Naylor a solid option in the middle round of drafts. Spencer Torkelson, Anthony Santander, and Yainer Diaz are all going sooner than him in drafts this year, but the Guardians' first baseman might be the better value -- given his consistency over the past two seasons.

Verdict: Undervalued



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF