Fantasy Baseball Advice: Three Up, Three Down after Week Five Action

by David Paul - RotoBaller 5/6/13 8:08 AM Follow Dave

The first month of the regular season has come and gone, and we've seen some strong performances and some very weak ones. Today,Rotoballer takes a look at three players on the rise and three whose stock is falling for the Month of May: Three Rising

Starling Marte (OF, PIT): He easily could have gone undrafted in your league, and if he was drafted, it was most likely after round 15. Now he’s one of the top-ranked fantasy players with a stat line that fills up all five categories. The .328 average is being driven by a +.400 BABIP, so it should fall back a bit, but the SBs are the bigger deal, and they're more sustainable. 20-25 SB was his range when the season began, but with 10 SB already, he could push his ceiling to 40-50 by the end of the year. A 20-HR/40-SB season is in the realm of good possibility, and that would make him a second-round value at a fifteenth-round price.
Jean Segura (SS, MIL): The Brewers #2 hitter came into his second season with expectations that he could be a light version of Elvis Andrus with low power and plus speed. Now with 4 HR already and +.300 BA, Segura is moving up to the Starlin Castro range. There should be plenty of run opportunities hitting in front of Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez. The speed was always there and with 8 SB to just 1 CS he could easily go for 35+ SB on the year.
Michael Cuddyer (OF, COL): He’s 34 and washed up. That’s what you thought after he put up a stinker injury-plagued year in 2012. Now fully healthy and playing in Colorado, he’s doing what he’s always done: hit for power with a respectable average. While the average will decline (Cuddyer is NOT a .300 hitter), the power and RBI should continue to pile up. With 6 HR and 23 RBI so far, a 25/90 season is possible. He’s healthy, and batting 5th in a lineup behind CarGo and Tulo should provide plenty of opportunities.

Three Falling

Ike Davis (1B, NYM): Two years in a row is too many. The K rate is hovering close to 30%, and the BA is once again below .200. Plain and simple: Ike strikes out way too much; he's been a complete mess at the plate and has a .138 average against LHP. He may come around and put together another 30-HR season, but it’s more likely he’s moving himself to a platoon situation where he sits against lefties. Losing starts against lefties should take 100 AB away from him going forward, rendering him a less appealing start in weekly leagues.
Danny Espinosa (2B/SS, WAS): Espinosa opted to avoid rotator cuff surgery in the offseason, which would have sidelined him through April and May; he instead chose rehab as the way to go. The way he’s been playing suggests he would have been better off getting surgery and coming back in June fully recovered. He’s batting an abysmal .180 and his LD rate is below 12%, which is almost half of the league average. An atrocious 0.14 BB/K rate indicates his approach is completely off. At this rate, you'd be better off owning just about anyone else.
Melky Cabrera (OF, TOR): What a difference illegal drug use makes. We all knew he wasn’t as good as his last two years, but didn’t think he was nearly as bad as he is right now. Where has the power gone? 0 HR in April with 3 XBH total and 26 singles. You don’t win fantasy league with a #3 OF who hits singles and doesn’t run. Add in that the K rate is up, the BB walk is down and you are looking at total dud year. Better find a new undetectable roid.

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