X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

DraftKings NFL DFS: Week 9 Price Analysis & Picks

Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week five to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back again to open up the week nine DFS slate! If you're new here, this is not meant to be a definitive "picks" article, but just a first look to point out the best game environments and best projections and value plays. Quite often, by Sunday I'm not on all of the plays I start with here, but it does set the table for the rest of the week of search.

Again, I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, November 6th. Here we go!

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 50% off using code SUMMER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Game Environments

Six teams on bye

  • Cowboys
  • Steelers
  • Giants
  • Broncos
  • 49ers
  • Browns

 

Teams that are off the slate

  • Eagles
  • Texans
  • Chiefs
  • Titans
  • Ravens
  • Saints

 

That leaves us with just ten games on the main slate. Here are the top game environments at this point, super early in the week.

  1. Seahawks @ Cardinals: 51 O/U, 2 point spread
  2. Packers @ Lions: 50 O/U, 3 point spread
  3. Falcons @ Chargers, 50 O/U, 3 point spread
  4. Jets @ Bills: 48 O/U, 13 point spread
  5. Raiders @ Jaguars: 48 O/U, 2 point spread

 

Let's look at how these positions are shaping up early in the week.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Josh Allen $8,500 NYJ 27.0
Tua Tagovailoa $6,700 CHI 21.5
Kyler Murray $7,400 SEA 21.2
Joe Burrow $6,600 CAR 20.5
Kirk Cousins $6,200 WAS 20.3

 

Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Derek Carr $5,400 JAX 18.8
Kirk Cousins $6,200 WAS 20.3
Sam Ehlinger $5,000 NE 16.2
Tua Tagovailoa $6,700 CHI 21.5
Matthew Stafford $5,600 TAM 18.0

 

I don't see how you could get away from Josh Allen in this spot. The next highest projection (Tua) is almost six points behind him, and really nobody stands out in this spot with all of these other high-upside QBs off the slate.

Maybe you don't want to pay the $8,500 for Allen because that price is too prohibitive and you're worried about just a massive blowout that slows the pace down for the Bills. You probably also don't want to go to Josh Allen on 100% of your tournament lineups. Here are some other quick stats and thoughts to consider.

 

Kyler Murray: He has DeAndre Hopkins back and just had his best score of the year, putting up 28 DraftKings points against the Vikings. Now he gets his second go against the Seahawks defense. He scored just 18 points against them in that first game, but I think you can feel good about getting more than that this time around with more weapons and a possibly more efficient Seahawks offense opposing him as they get a bit more healthy. Murary has averaged more than 40 rushing yards per game, raising the floor and ceiling here - and again, there are not many rushing QBs available for us this week. Murray is well behind Allen in the "better" game environment, but he's probably the second best pick.

 

Tua Tagovailoa: He did not disappoint in the nut matchup last week against the Lions, scoring 32 DraftKings points. That was his second game going over 30 points (scored 42 in week two), and is clearly back to full health here. That big score raised the price, and the Bears aren't quite as good of a matchup as the Lions (they are middle-of-the-pack againt passers), but has easy 300+ yard and multiple touchdown upside nearly every week with the elite weapons he's working with right now.

 

Kirk Cousins: This feel like more of a tournament play with a game-stack involved to me, as Cousins ceiling is very hard to access. He has gone over 20 points just twice, and in those times he's scored just 22 and 23 points - so really not much of a shot at 30+ here (not impossible, but a much lower probability). The Commanders are a good matchup for passers, and this game has some potential to go back-and-forth with good pace, but all of this is pretty thin and best reserved for tournament lineups where you play a Vikings wide receiver or two along with a bring-back from the Commanders while hoping for a shootout.

 

My lean right now is forcing in Josh Allen with Kyler Murray as the fall-back plan.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Josh Jacobs $7,300 JAX 21.5
Joe Mixon $6,500 CAR 19.1
Jonathan Taylor $7,700 NE 18.2
Kenneth Walker $6,200 ARI 17.4
Rhamondre Stevenson $6,200 IND 17.1

 

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Josh Jacobs $7,300 JAX 21.5
Joe Mixon $6,500 CAR 19.1
Kenneth Walker $6,200 ARI 17.4
Rhamondre Stevenson $6,200 IND 17.1
Raheem Mostert $6,100 CHI 16.3

 

Josh Jacobs: The biggest bust of week eight, he scored just 7 DraftKings points as the Raiders were shut out by the Saints. The Raiders just couldn't keep hold of the ball, which kept Jacobs to only 12 touches (10 rushes, two catches). The good news is that his dominance of the backfield did not stop as only one other running back carried the ball (once) and he earned four targets. For the year, he has an 11% target share and a 78% share of the rushing attempts for the Raiders. The Jaguars aren't a smash matchup for running backs, but few running backs on this slate match his share of the workload, and the Raiders have a good shot to control this game.

 

Joe Mixon: He has not been efficient, and has been underwhelming in the box score. That has his price down to $6,500 - and the good news is that he has a massive workload for the Bengals. He has a 15% target share and handles 70% of the carries for the Bengals, and those numbers ballooned to 27% and 80% last week without Ja'Marr Chase playing. He should find his way to 20+ touches here, which is a really great find in this price range.

 

Kenneth Walker: In three games without Rashaad Penny in the mix, Walker has a 70% share of the running back carries and a "fine" 6% target share. He has dominated the backfield in a way that few of us saw coming over these last three weeks:

RB Snaps Routes
Kenneth Walker 93 34
DeeJay Dallas 38 10
Travis Homer 14 9

Important to note that Homer wasn't active until this last week, but he showed up and played just 14 snaps and ran nine routes to Walker's 47 and 19 in week eight. Walker is the guy, his big-play ability is right there with the league's best, and this is the week's best game environment (arguably).

 

Rhamondre Stevenson: Over the last four weeks, Stevenson has scored 22.5, 25.1, 23.8, and 21.3 DraftKings points. He has played 188 snaps and earned 23 targets on his 78 routes. His backup, Damien Harris, has played just 46 snaps and run 23 routes over that time - although he did miss week six entirely. It seems to be Stevenson's backfield right now, and he's shown us that he's a great fantasy back when getting the work. The matchup here isn't great, there have only been two strong RB scores against the Colts and both belong to Derrick Henry. However, the price is still more than low enough to consider Stevenson in this spot.

 

Aaron JonesHe will continue to not project well with AJ Dillon eating up nearly half of the RB snaps, but a few things are working in Jones' favor.

  1. The Lions are the worst defense in football
  2. Jones does the bulk of the pass game work (180 routes to Dillon's 97)
  3. His workload has trended upward (59% share of the rushing attempts and an 18% target share over the last three weeks)

The floor is pretty low for what he costs, but the upside is massive if the Lions can move the ball effectively against the Packers and keep pace.

 

Dalvin CookNot projecting very well at this point in the week, but that might need refining. He has scored 26, 15, and 28 DraftKings points in his last three weeks while firmly in control of the backfield (it's about a 75/25 split with Mattison). The Commanders are best attacked through the air, but the Vikings want Cook to be a big part of any game that he's healthy for. He's pricey, and the floor doesn't really match that price - but he has a higher ceiling than most here and could create some solid leverage in tournaments.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Cooper Kupp $8,900 TB 23.9
Justin Jefferson $8,600 WAS 23.1
Tyreek Hill $8,500 CHI 22.2
Stefon Diggs $8,400 NYJ 21.0
Davante Adams $8,100 JAX 18.9

 

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Zay Jones $4,100 LVR 11.4
Chris Godwin $6,200 LAR 17.2
DJ Moore $5,800 CIN 15.6
Cooper Kupp $8,900 TB 23.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown $6,600 GB 17.7

 

All of the big dogs are back. We have five wide receivers priced above $8,000. I would rank those five just like the projections do, I think we can probably get away with not playing Diggs in the big blowout spot there, and I'm not sure Davante Adams really deserves this price tag at this point. It would seem reasonable to say that we should try to get to one of Kupp, Jefferson, or Hill - since we need some of that 35+ point upside that is much harder to find on this short slate - and those three all provide is.

I think Jefferson has the fewest available holes to be poked. There are reasonable questions about if the Bucs can really push the ball on offense at this point, which could turn that game into a slog. Tyreek finds himself in a game that the Dolphins are likely to win handily, taking some points off the ceiling there. Jefferson, however, gets the best matchup of the bunch and has been just remarkable this year.

On the value side, we see Zay Jones popping up here. The Raiders are a good matchup, and Jones has a strong 19% target share this year despite missing a game. He has scored double-digit points in four of his seven games and has gone over 20 once already. His targets are low-value, and the Jaguars are not to be trusted on offense - but he is a punt play that we can probably stomach this week.

The wide receiver position is such a beast and changes so much throughout the week - that I don't want to waste too much of your time here with guesswork. Keep it locked on RotoBaller all week to get more clarity as we approach the weekend.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Tyler Higbee $3,700 TB 11.4
T.J. Hockenson $5,000 GB 11.1
Zach Ertz $5,100 SEA 10.3
Foster Moreau $3,200 JAX 10.3
Hayden Hurst $3,600 CAR 9.8

 

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Foster Moreau $3,200 JAX 10.3
Tyler Higbee $3,700 TB 11.4
Cade Otton $3,100 LAR 8.7
Hayden Hurst $3,600 CAR 9.7
Irv Smith $3,400 WAS 8.7

 

Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Dallas Goedert all off the slate - giving us another "punt it" week at tight end. The top projection being Tyler Higbee really tells the whole tale.

The projections above are assuming that Darren Waller will be out again, which I think needs updated as Waller was a game-time decision on Sunday, so you would think he'd get back healthy for this week. If he does, Moreau is out of consideration. The same situation applies to Cade Otton who only projects well with Cameron Brate out, and we currently have Brate as questionable. If Brate is out, I think Otton is the top play on the slate. Otherwise, Irv Smith and Hayden Hurst look decent at their price - but neither are to be trusted so we might be best off with the full punt. More to come on tight end throughout the week.

 

Okay cool, that's it - I hope this helps. Again, please, please read much more than this if you're investing money into the DFS slate on Sunday - this is just to set the table and get ready for the rest of the week of research and analysis. Thanks for being here!

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF