November 1, 2022

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week five to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back again to open up the week nine DFS slate! If you're new here, this is not meant to be a definitive "picks" article, but just a first look to point out the best game environments and best projections and value plays. Quite often, by Sunday I'm not on all of the plays I start with here, but it does set the table for the rest of the week of search.

Again, I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, November 6th. Here we go!

Game Environments

Six teams on bye

• Cowboys
• Steelers
• Giants
• Broncos
• 49ers
• Browns

Teams that are off the slate

• Eagles
• Texans
• Chiefs
• Titans
• Ravens
• Saints

That leaves us with just ten games on the main slate. Here are the top game environments at this point, super early in the week.

1. Seahawks @ Cardinals: 51 O/U, 2 point spread
2. Packers @ Lions: 50 O/U, 3 point spread
3. Falcons @ Chargers, 50 O/U, 3 point spread
4. Jets @ Bills: 48 O/U, 13 point spread
5. Raiders @ Jaguars: 48 O/U, 2 point spread

Let's look at how these positions are shaping up early in the week.

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

Top Values

I don't see how you could get away from Josh Allen in this spot. The next highest projection (Tua) is almost six points behind him, and really nobody stands out in this spot with all of these other high-upside QBs off the slate.

Maybe you don't want to pay the $8,500 for Allen because that price is too prohibitive and you're worried about just a massive blowout that slows the pace down for the Bills. You probably also don't want to go to Josh Allen on 100% of your tournament lineups. Here are some other quick stats and thoughts to consider.

Kyler Murray: He has DeAndre Hopkins back and just had his best score of the year, putting up 28 DraftKings points against the Vikings. Now he gets his second go against the Seahawks defense. He scored just 18 points against them in that first game, but I think you can feel good about getting more than that this time around with more weapons and a possibly more efficient Seahawks offense opposing him as they get a bit more healthy. Murary has averaged more than 40 rushing yards per game, raising the floor and ceiling here - and again, there are not many rushing QBs available for us this week. Murray is well behind Allen in the "better" game environment, but he's probably the second best pick.

Tua Tagovailoa: He did not disappoint in the nut matchup last week against the Lions, scoring 32 DraftKings points. That was his second game going over 30 points (scored 42 in week two), and is clearly back to full health here. That big score raised the price, and the Bears aren't quite as good of a matchup as the Lions (they are middle-of-the-pack againt passers), but has easy 300+ yard and multiple touchdown upside nearly every week with the elite weapons he's working with right now.

Kirk Cousins: This feel like more of a tournament play with a game-stack involved to me, as Cousins ceiling is very hard to access. He has gone over 20 points just twice, and in those times he's scored just 22 and 23 points - so really not much of a shot at 30+ here (not impossible, but a much lower probability). The Commanders are a good matchup for passers, and this game has some potential to go back-and-forth with good pace, but all of this is pretty thin and best reserved for tournament lineups where you play a Vikings wide receiver or two along with a bring-back from the Commanders while hoping for a shootout.

My lean right now is forcing in Josh Allen with Kyler Murray as the fall-back plan.

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

Josh Jacobs: The biggest bust of week eight, he scored just 7 DraftKings points as the Raiders were shut out by the Saints. The Raiders just couldn't keep hold of the ball, which kept Jacobs to only 12 touches (10 rushes, two catches). The good news is that his dominance of the backfield did not stop as only one other running back carried the ball (once) and he earned four targets. For the year, he has an 11% target share and a 78% share of the rushing attempts for the Raiders. The Jaguars aren't a smash matchup for running backs, but few running backs on this slate match his share of the workload, and the Raiders have a good shot to control this game.

Joe Mixon: He has not been efficient, and has been underwhelming in the box score. That has his price down to $6,500 - and the good news is that he has a massive workload for the Bengals. He has a 15% target share and handles 70% of the carries for the Bengals, and those numbers ballooned to 27% and 80% last week without Ja'Marr Chase playing. He should find his way to 20+ touches here, which is a really great find in this price range.

Kenneth Walker: In three games without Rashaad Penny in the mix, Walker has a 70% share of the running back carries and a "fine" 6% target share. He has dominated the backfield in a way that few of us saw coming over these last three weeks:

Important to note that Homer wasn't active until this last week, but he showed up and played just 14 snaps and ran nine routes to Walker's 47 and 19 in week eight. Walker is the guy, his big-play ability is right there with the league's best, and this is the week's best game environment (arguably).

Rhamondre Stevenson: Over the last four weeks, Stevenson has scored 22.5, 25.1, 23.8, and 21.3 DraftKings points. He has played 188 snaps and earned 23 targets on his 78 routes. His backup, Damien Harris, has played just 46 snaps and run 23 routes over that time - although he did miss week six entirely. It seems to be Stevenson's backfield right now, and he's shown us that he's a great fantasy back when getting the work. The matchup here isn't great, there have only been two strong RB scores against the Colts and both belong to Derrick Henry. However, the price is still more than low enough to consider Stevenson in this spot.

Aaron Jones: He will continue to not project well with AJ Dillon eating up nearly half of the RB snaps, but a few things are working in Jones' favor.

1. The Lions are the worst defense in football
2. Jones does the bulk of the pass game work (180 routes to Dillon's 97)
3. His workload has trended upward (59% share of the rushing attempts and an 18% target share over the last three weeks)

The floor is pretty low for what he costs, but the upside is massive if the Lions can move the ball effectively against the Packers and keep pace.

Dalvin Cook: Not projecting very well at this point in the week, but that might need refining. He has scored 26, 15, and 28 DraftKings points in his last three weeks while firmly in control of the backfield (it's about a 75/25 split with Mattison). The Commanders are best attacked through the air, but the Vikings want Cook to be a big part of any game that he's healthy for. He's pricey, and the floor doesn't really match that price - but he has a higher ceiling than most here and could create some solid leverage in tournaments.

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

All of the big dogs are back. We have five wide receivers priced above $8,000. I would rank those five just like the projections do, I think we can probably get away with not playing Diggs in the big blowout spot there, and I'm not sure Davante Adams really deserves this price tag at this point. It would seem reasonable to say that we should try to get to one of Kupp, Jefferson, or Hill - since we need some of that 35+ point upside that is much harder to find on this short slate - and those three all provide is.

I think Jefferson has the fewest available holes to be poked. There are reasonable questions about if the Bucs can really push the ball on offense at this point, which could turn that game into a slog. Tyreek finds himself in a game that the Dolphins are likely to win handily, taking some points off the ceiling there. Jefferson, however, gets the best matchup of the bunch and has been just remarkable this year.

On the value side, we see Zay Jones popping up here. The Raiders are a good matchup, and Jones has a strong 19% target share this year despite missing a game. He has scored double-digit points in four of his seven games and has gone over 20 once already. His targets are low-value, and the Jaguars are not to be trusted on offense - but he is a punt play that we can probably stomach this week.

The wide receiver position is such a beast and changes so much throughout the week - that I don't want to waste too much of your time here with guesswork. Keep it locked on RotoBaller all week to get more clarity as we approach the weekend.

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Dallas Goedert all off the slate - giving us another "punt it" week at tight end. The top projection being Tyler Higbee really tells the whole tale.

The projections above are assuming that Darren Waller will be out again, which I think needs updated as Waller was a game-time decision on Sunday, so you would think he'd get back healthy for this week. If he does, Moreau is out of consideration. The same situation applies to Cade Otton who only projects well with Cameron Brate out, and we currently have Brate as questionable. If Brate is out, I think Otton is the top play on the slate. Otherwise, Irv Smith and Hayden Hurst look decent at their price - but neither are to be trusted so we might be best off with the full punt. More to come on tight end throughout the week.

Okay cool, that's it - I hope this helps. Again, please, please read much more than this if you're investing money into the DFS slate on Sunday - this is just to set the table and get ready for the rest of the week of research and analysis. Thanks for being here!

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