October 25, 2022

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week five to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back again to crack the can on week eight DFS! If you're new here, this is not meant to be a definitive "picks" article, but just a first look to point out the best game environments and best projections and value plays. Quite often, by Sunday I'm not on all of the plays I start with here, but it does set the table for the rest of the week of search.

Again, I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, October 30th. Here we go!

Game Environments

Lots of big-time offenses off the main slate this week

• Bills (Sunday Night football)
• Chiefs (bye week)
• Chargers (bye week)
• Ravens (Thursday Night football)
• Bengals (Monday Night football)
• Bucs* (Thursday Night football)

* The Bucs might not actually be a good offense anymore

That leaves us with these top (projected) game environments

1. Dolphins @ Lions: 51.5 over/under, 3.5 point spread
2. Saints @ Raiders: 49.5 over/under, 1.5 point spread
3. Cardinals @ Vikings, 48.5 over/under, 3.5 point spread
4. Seahawks @ Giants, 44.5 over/under, 3 point spread
5. Steelers @ Eagles, 43.5 over/under, 10.5 point spread

I think that first game is a cut above the rest, but there is no massive game environment that is overly likely to be the key to the whole slate (like Bills vs. Chiefs was a couple of weeks ago).

Let's get into the position projections and my initial thoughts.

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

Top Values

A rare week without much going on at the top of the QB position. Hurts is really the only current fantasy stud here, but he's priced through the roof to match - and the matchup with the Steelers as an 11-point favorite isn't quite the ideal situation.

The one very tempting situation is Sam Ehlinger as just $4,000. If Ehlinger had been announced as the starter prior to prices being generated, I can promise you that price would be $5,000 or slightly more. So we get a stone-minimum quarterback against a beatable pass defense. The problem is, of course, that we have no idea if Sam Ehlinger is at all competent. If you play him and get 8-10 points while the field goes to Hurts and banks 30, your back is up against the wall. It is a strategy question for sure, but paying just $4,000 for your quarterback opens up a whole lot of opportunities.

Daniel Jones and Tua are interesting to me as well, both pretty affordable with higher floors and ceilings than Ehlinger, but bad scores are very much in the range of outcomes for those two names - and with Tua, I don't think you're likely to get any running numbers given his health situation. I would probably lean towards getting the whole way up to Hurts or coming all the way down to Ehlinger.

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

I'm really liking Kamara here as his price just won't get to where it seems like it should be. He hasn't scored a touchdown this year, which may be the reason for the lower price - but that's certain to start breaking the other way soon. He has 4, 7, 6, 9, and 9 targets in his five games this year in addition to the average of 15.5 rush attempts. He is getting tons of work, and is showing the same big play upside as always. He's a great play at $7,100 - and he's easy to afford if you pay down at QB.

The top projection, once again, belongs to Saquon Barkley. He still does not have a single "have to have it" score this year, but his minimum DraftKings points is a dozen, and he's averaged 21.6. His floor and ceiling are fantastic, and this is a superb matchup against the Seahawks.

The pay-down option may be Michael Carter, who should draw the start after that unfortunate injury to Breece Hall. The Jets did quickly trade for James Robinson, but you would imagine that Carter gets the bulk of the work here as Robinson gets acquainted with the playbook.

The other big name is Derrick Henry here, who is indeed a tougher play given his lack of pass game work, but you can't ask for a much better matchup here. Here are some notable running back scores against the Texans this year

• Josh Jacobs, Week 7: 39.5 points
• Austin Ekeler, Week 4: 34.9 points
• Khalil Herbert, Week 3: 33.9 points
• Jonathan Taylor, Week 1: 30.5 points

The floor is always lower than you'd like with Henry give his touchdown dependency, but I think it's fair to say that a multiple touchdown game is just as likely as a zero touchdown game for the big man here.

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

I think I might just start my lineup by clicking on Tyreek Hill. Notable WR games against the Lions this year

• A.J. Brown, Week 1: 28.5 points
• Jakobi Meyers, Week 5: 27.1 points
• DK Metcalf, Week 4: 24.9 points
• Curtis Samuel, Week 2: 22.9 points

Almost every week the Lions are getting torched by talented wide receivers, and Tyreek Hill looks excellent in this Dolphins offense. He has averaged 22.4 points the year, with double-digit targets in five of his seven games - and that is all with inconsistent QB play given the Tua injury, who is now back in the lineup and looked fine last week. I think the Tua+Waddle+Hill stack is super interesting in this spot, even in a cash game situation. Hill and Waddle have combined for a 54% share of the team's targets and a 65% share of their air yards.

D.J. Moore had a nice game in PJ Walker's first start, and the price has only come up to $5,300. He has a 28% target share on the year and a 39.5% share of the air yards. That doesn't really work when your team at the bottom of the league in points and yardage, but Moore's floor seems a bit higher than $5,300 would suggest.

Plenty to like here, but we must keep it locked on the injury reports and analysis from people smarter than I before making definitive decisions at this super important position.

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

Slim pickings at tight end this week, making it another "pay up or punt" spot. But in this case, the "pay ups" aren't even really "pay ups" with Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews off the slate. Goedert is a fine play, he doesn't have a ceiling game but he's been solid averaging 11.3 points per game. A big game is in the range of outcomes here if he lucks into a couple of touchdowns here. There's really nothing else I feel at all confident about after Goedert, which makes it somewhat less risky to just pay way down for a Thomas or Jordan type because it's likely that nobody will get a ton of points from their tight end slot this week.

That's all I've got to offer here, I hope this helps start off your week's research - I wish you all the best!

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