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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 on 02/08/25. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The UFC returns to Australia for UFC 312 on February 9. The card will feature a lot of Australian and Asian prospects due to the proximity, but not the main event. Two massive title fights are on the card, with the main event between Dricus du Plessis defending the UFC middleweight title against Sean Strickland and the co-main event being Weili Zhang defending the strawweight belt against the undefeated Tatiana Suarez. The main card is a little lackluster beyond the top two fights, but it could at least produce some memorable finishes. Let's hope that UFC 312 is one of those cards you never expect to be any good that turns out to be quite fun.
To open up the main card, we have Jake Matthews taking on Francisco Prado. Also, on the main card, Jimmy Crute is scheduled to take on Rodolfo Bellato and Tallison Texeira, who's making his Octagon debut, taking on Justin Tafa in a three-round heavyweight bout. On the prelims, Ilia Topuria's older brother Aleksandre Topuria will be making his debut against the undefeated Colby Thicknesse, who is also making his UFC debut.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 on 02/08/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dricus Du Plessis, $8.6K - vs. Sean Strickland
The main event will see middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis aim to defend his middleweight belt for the second time when he takes on former middleweight champion Sean Strickland in a rematch. The two fought last year at UFC 297 where Du Plessis got his hand raised and took the middleweight belt from Strickland in what ended up being one of the closest five-round matchups of 2024.
A rematch for the MW title…WE. CAN’T. WAIT 👊@DricusDuPlessis vs @SStricklandMMA
[ #UFC312 | Saturday 10pmET | Live on ESPN+ PPV ] pic.twitter.com/GwikFI0NST
— UFC (@ufc) February 7, 2025
Du Plessis was last seen in action last August at UFC 305, where he defended the middleweight belt for the first time by securing a fourth-round rear-naked-choke against former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.
The South African champion didn't look good in his fight with Adesanya and was arguably losing the fight 3-1 until he managed to pull off a submission victory. Since entering the UFC, Du Plessis has gone 8-0, defeating former champions like Adesanya, Strickland, and Robert Whittaker.
Strickland started his UFC career as a middleweight but decided to drop down to welterweight after winning two in a row. Strickland went 5-3 at welterweight before moving back to middleweight, where he went 5-0 before getting knocked out by former middleweight champion Alex Pereira before losing by a split decision to Jared Cannonier.
Then he went on a three-fight winning streak, earning him a shot at the middleweight belt. He was defeated in his next fight by Du Plessis.
After his controversial loss to Du Plessis, Strickland got back in the win column and maintained his status as a divisional title contender by defeating former title challenger Paulo Costa five months later by unanimous decision at UFC 302. He is 4-2 in his last six fights and is close to reaching the top of several striking records.
Du Plessis enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-2 and 8-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.18 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Du Plessis is absorbing 4.85 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 54%. Regarding his grappling, Du Plessis is averaging 3.04 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 50%.
Strickland enters this fight with an MMA record of 29-6 and 16-6 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.01 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Strickland is absorbing 4.48 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 61%. When it comes to his grappling, Strickland is averaging 0.78 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 64% and a takedown defense of 77%.
I see this fight playing out similarly to the last time. Strickland will push the pace and will likely land more significant strikes. Du Plessis punished Strickland in close quarters in their first bout, and I think he's going to use his wrestling a bit more this time around.
It will be another close fight, but I give an edge to the favorite DDP, considering his willingness to mix it up. My prediction is that Du Plessis gets this done via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tatiana Suarez, $8.2K - vs. Weili Zhang
In the co-main event of UFC 312, reigning strawweight champion Weili Zhang is set to take on undefeated challenger Tatiana Suarez. Zhang looks to defend the title for the third time, while Suarez looks to become the new strawweight champion and remain undefeated.
Suarez is an elite wrestler who steamrolled her way to a title shot. Suarez's career has been plagued by injuries, but when able to make it into the Octagon, she’s been almost untouchable. With an impressive seven-fight win streak in the UFC, many pegged her to be a future UFC champion.
The 33-year-old has been with the UFC since July 2016, when she won season 23 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” defeating Amanda Cooper via submission. Suarez holds wins against Jessica Andrade, Montana De La Rosa, and Carla Esparza.
Zhang has been the dominant force in the strawweight division. The 34-year-old first captured the belt in August 2019 by defeating Andrade via TKO. Her first title defense was against the former champion Jonna Jedrzejczyk, where she scored a split decision.
She then lost back-to-back fights to former champ Rose Namajunas before knocking out Jedrzejczyk and tapping out champion Esparza to regain her belt. The fight marks Zhang's first in 10 months, as she defeated Xiaonan Yan at UFC 300 by decision to extend her win streak to four.
Suarez enters this fight as the slight favorite with an MMA record of 10-0 and 7-0 in the UFC. She is averaging 4.27 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 63%. Suarez absorbs 1.38 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 51%. Her grappling is elite, averaging 6.20 takedowns every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 61% and a takedown defense of 100%.
Zhang enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-3 and 9-2 in the UFC. She is averaging 5.66 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Zhang is absorbing 3.15 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 53%. Regarding her grappling, Zhang averages 2.51 takedowns every 15 minutes. Zhang has a takedown accuracy of 46% and a takedown defense of 50%.
Despite her injuries and inactivity, I'm going with Suarez to win this one. Suarez gets stronger as the fight goes on, but we still haven't seen her fight for five full rounds. This is an interesting matchup because Zhang is so good and tough to beat. But, I think Tatiana will be able to get it to the ground and get the win via the third or fourth-round TKO or submission.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Aleksandre Topuria, $9.3K - vs. Colby Thicknesse
Aleksandre Topuria is scheduled to take on Colby Thicknesse in a bantamweight matchup on the prelims of UFC 312 on Saturday. Topuria is riding a three-fight winning streak heading into his highly anticipated debut meanwhile, Thicknesse has won all seven of his professional fights.
Topuria enters this bout with an MMA record of 5-1. He was originally scheduled to face off against Cody Haddon, who withdrew from the bantamweight pairing due to injury. Topuria is on a three-fight win streak heading into his UFC debut, though he hasn't fought since 2023.
He was preparing for his next fight on the Spanish regional scene but decided to put his career on hold when his younger brother and reigning featherweight champion Ilia Topuria was granted a UFC title shot.
Just like Topuria, Thicknesse is also making his UFC debut. A long-time training partner of former featherweight champion Alex Volkanovski, Thicknesse will replace the injured Cody Haddon against Topuria on just 14 days’ notice.
Thicknesse won the 2020 Oceania Open Championships and he makes his UFC debut after winning four fights in 2024, with three straight ending in the first round. He was last seen in action in November 2024 at HEX Fight Series 33, where he defeated Marven Malunes via first-round TKO.
All five of Topuria's wins have come inside the distance, including three first-round knockouts, showcasing an ability to overwhelm and finish opponents early. His wrestling is great; he's fast and explosive, and he has knockout power. Just like Topuria, Thicknesse is another wrestler with a solid gas tank but he doesn't have Topurias speed or punching power.
Also, Thicknesse didn't have a full camp to prepare as he was stepping up on short notice. From watching the tape, Topuria seems to be better everywhere, and I think he's going to win via TKO in the second or third round.
