RADIO
If it was at all possible, I fell more in love with the game of golf while watching the Olympics. Something that happens once every 208 weeks gave golfers around the world a golden opportunity to represent their country with pride and precision around a treacherous Le Golf National.
A golf venue that saw Scheffler shoot -19 and Matthieu Pavon shoot +13, had the best in the game belly flopping at the biggest moments while the World No. 1 stealthily steered his country to gold after taking the solo lead for the first time on the 72nd hole, with Noal Lyles copying Scheffler's styles winning gold in the 100M sprint after being in last place for almost half his race later that day.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of last Week
It is always fun to have a profitable week when the big events take place, as it makes those week's that much more memorable. Trust me, I won't forget losing every single bet we placed at the Open a few weeks ago. That was memorable too, but considering we tossed another $20 away on outrights, we still managed to come out on top thanks to our placement bets and farewell fiver. These are the weeks we pride ourselves on stellar bankroll management to turn outright loses into profit with the placements.
Xander was contending for the lead half way through Sunday until he peeled out like Vin Diesel in a muscle car, crashing his American muscle car into multiple hazards on the back nine, losing -3.15 strokes to the field and the only one inside the top-10 to not break par on the day. However, he parred the two very difficult final holes to claw on to a t9 and barely cash our top-10. It would have been a $60 swing had he not parred out. We must appreciate the good breaks we get!
Scheffler. was. incredible!
✅Breaking $100: +$15.66
💩Outrights: -$20
- Perez 4th (140-1 3 places ew 🙃)Placements: +$30
✅Scheffler -125 T5
✅Xander -200 T10 (t9) 🥵🤞🏼Farewell Fiver: +$5.66
✅R1 3-ball parlay (4 leg round robin)*Betting outrights continues to be a money pit 🤕 ... betting… https://t.co/8j0KCppQIS pic.twitter.com/rjzCeq9b2F
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) August 4, 2024
Outrights $10
A few of these lines have shortened since posting them in the discord on Monday morning, which is another awesome reason to get in there as you always want to hit a winner with the best number, when we land up hitting another one when ever that may be.
We are going with five guys this week, hoping to serve up a victory burger in the final regular season event of the year.
Billy Horschel $3.70 +2500
Blue Collar Billy has played phenomenally here in the past, with finishes of 4th, T27, 2nd, T6, T11, T60 and T5 in his last few starts. He is heading back to a course he has found deluxe comfort around after finishing T2 at the Open Championship a few weeks ago. His confidence must be sky-high right now with both his course history and recent form bubbling his "buddy" meter to the maximum. If the weather gets disgusting, he just finished T2 at the Open in very similar conditions, which should give him a third leg up on the field alongside form and course history. Let's go Billy you beauty!
Akshay Bhatia $2.06 +4500 (now +3500)
Entering the week with three missed cuts in his trio of appearances so far in his short career, Bhatia will return to the Wyndham Championship with a bag of golf shots that last year's version of himself could only have dreamed of. His driver ranks 10th in accuracy and 8th in SG OTT over the last 24 rounds and not so long ago did he three putt on the 72nd hole to miss out on a playoff with Cam Davis at the Rocket. It is time get back on the rocket that he rode to victory at the Valero earlier this year, a course that you could argue is a comp to Sedgefield with its tight fairways and shorter layout.
If Bhatia can get back into that Valero ball striking form again, he doesn't even need to putt that well to win a tournament. He won the Valero in a very similar way Scheffler has been winning his tournaments lately. Bhatia also gained a ridiculous +18.8 strokes from tee-t0-green in that campaign, with anything remotely close to that going to go a long way to winning the Wyndham.
Cameron Davis $2.06 +4500 (now +3500)
It was roughly this time last year that Cam Davis played himself into the BMW Championship from outside the playoff bubble with a T7 at this venue which improved on a T15 and T22 in his first two appearances back in 2020 and '19. The Aussie who flew all the way to England as an alternate for the Open, but not getting the nod to play, makes me want to bet on him even more as he is extremely hungry for good results right now. His form from tee to green ranks second in this field over the last 12 rounds heading to a course where he has gained at least +1.5 strokes on the greens in all three appearances, the very thing holding him back in his last eight rounds after the win at the Rocket. The putter is key to his success this week if that tee-to-green game remains as remarkable as it has been in the last three events.
Viktor Perez $1.16 +8000
The French word for momentum is élan, which is exactly what Viktor Perez has entering the week. In his last seven starts, he has four top-12 finishes, including a third in Canada and a fourth at last week's Olympics. His ball striking has been spluttering between weeks of inspireation, and so has the putter, either gaining significantly or losing a little. That is the volatile profile that can have somebody shoot 63 in the final round of the Olympics in his home country to roar up the leaderboard to finish 1 shot out of the medals as the 70th-ranked golfer in the world. He either shows up with incredible form that has spilled over from France, or he has partied his face off and he misses the cut. These are the two most likely ways I think his week goes sitting 71st in FedEx Cup points.
Taylor Moore $1.03 +9000 (now +7000)
Taylor Moore is becoming somebody who tends to play well at places where he is comfortable. He showed up at the Rocket Mortgage earlier this year when he wasn't even in the best of form, and now after a T12 at the 3M, his game seems to have found itself a little heading back to a venue he has a T22 and T5 at in his first two starts. At 90-1, he felt like great value given his history here and his ability to win a golf tournament like he did at the Valspar two years ago.
Placings ($85)
With a field lacking the elites like Scottie and co. we are not betting any top-5s, but rolling out four top-10s, three top-20s and two top-40s to return $13.36 for each bet.
These are the numbers we will be using to determine if we have an actual edge on these bets.
Sungjae Im T20 -110 (52% implied odds)
In his 25 starts this year Im has finished T20 in 56% of them, giving us a raw edge of 4% before course fit. He is the unanimous favorite this week and has finishes of T14, T2, T24, T9, and T6 in his five starts here. He also enters the week with seven consecutive top-20s in non-majors and eight top-20s in his last 10 starts on tour, with the majors going 1 for 4 this year in the top-20 market.
Cameron Young T10 +300 (25% implied odds)
In his seven top-20s this year, he has also finished top-10 in six of them, with the Genesis Invitational being his only top-20 without a top-10, making a top-10 bet here the optimal play despite him having lost -$31 on the year in that market so far. He has two top-10s in his last three starts and in a field like this he has gained the fourth most strokes and is a premier talent amongst those teeing it up this week.
Cameron Davis T20 +175 (36% implied odds)
Davis only has one top-10 this year which was his win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic three starts ago, but has five top-20s (40% rate) on the year making that his go-to market. Those recent three events including the win have seen him dominate tee to green, but the putter let him down in the last pair of starts after the dub. His affinity to excel on short, positional courses comes through in his track record here with finishes of T7, T15, and T22 in '23, '20, and '19, gaining on the greens each time. If he doesn't win for us, this bet should still give us reasonable exposure to Davis at a course he fancies.
Akshay Bhatia T20 +175 (36% implied odds)
He has four finishes inside the top 22 in his last half-dozen starts and his last 30 starts have produced a top-20 in 40% of those them. Although he has struggled mightily here with three missed cuts, we know that Akshay is a different golfer now, with a major top-20 and a win at the Valero in April. His driver, at a course that rewards accuracy, ranks 10th in fairways found in this field over the last 24 rounds with his strokes gained off the tee ranking 8th as a result of tons of accuracy and average distance.
Aaron Rai T40 -130 (57%) / T10 +350 (22%)
In his last 22 starts over the last year, Rai has finished inside the top 40 at a 64% clip, giving us a raw edge of 7% in that market. If we ignore the Open Championship (T75), Rai has cashed a top-40 in his last eight consecutive starts, with his last five all being top-20 and the last three all top-10, so we are going to bet him +350 for a top-10 as well with a 1% edge in that market (23% rate on the season) but knowing that he is in some great form right now bumps that edge up a little more.
Kurt Kitayama T40 +100 (50%)
Kitayama has made a living in the top-40 market, finishing inside that mark at a 71% rate, giving us a whopping 20% edge. 11 of his last 13 starts have been T41 or better, with 10 of them cashing that top-40 bid.
Billy Horschel T10+260 (28%)
Horschel has finished inside the top-10 in 27% of his 19 starts in the last year making it a neutral edge at +260 but if we take a peek at his course history here, we have five top-11 finishes in his last seven appearances here. If we add 1% for each top-10 and in the last seven years, we can add 4% to his 27% giving us a 3% edge.
Eric Cole T10 +550 (15%)
Cole has two top-10s in his last four starts at the John Deere Classic and Rocket Mortgage Classic. His putter and chipping have regained some consistency and the iron play has also shown up a few more times than we are used to. If he can improve on the T14 he had here last year despite having a driver that lost him over -2.5 strokes off the tee. Off the tee, he has been significantly better this year and now the rest of the game seems to have returned.
Si Woo Kim T40 -175 (64%)
Si Woo has 15 top-40 finishes in 20 starts in 2024 and doing so at a 72% clip in the last year. At the Wyndham he has five top-40s in his last seven appearances, with a WD and MC making up the difference. We are laying some juice here, but we get an 8% edge before looking into his incredible course history here that would add 5% more to our edge of 8% to get us to 13%.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
+2790 for the 4-ball parlay ($1 on the 4-legger and $1 on each of the four combinations of 3-leggers).
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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