Fantasy Basketball Breakouts, Busts, And Locks: Oklahoma City Thunder 2023-2024 Outlook

October 22, 2023

Daniel Leonard looks at one fantasy basketball breakout, bust, and lock from the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 2023-24 NBA season.

The NBA season is right on the horizon, so now we should start analyzing certain teams and what you can expect from their players heading into the season. Today, I’ll be talking about the Oklahoma City Thunder and giving their lock, bust, and breakout fantasy player heading into the 2023-24 season.

The OKC Thunder finished last season with a 40-42 record, which was good enough for 10th in the Western Conference and netted them a play-in berth. They went on to win their first play-in game against the New Orleans Pelicans but narrowly lost to the Timberwolves in the next game. By all accounts, this was a very successful year for OKC; they saw a 16-game increase in wins and also improved in offense and defense. After the loss, they were awarded the 10th overall pick, in which they selected guard Cason Wallace. Other than that move, they really are bringing back the same roster with hopes of improving even more.

I will determine my breakout player based on flashes that I saw last year, and I'm projecting an even bigger jump this upcoming season. I will determine my fantasy bust by projecting that the player will either regress from last season or that his ADP is too high. The way that I will determine my fantasy lock is by projecting that this player will continue his high level of play and should be your number one priority over any other OKC Thunder player in drafts.

Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Jalen Williams

Coming off of a very impressive rookie campaign, I feel like Jalen Williams is in a great position to improve even more and have a breakout season. Last year, the 12th overall pick averaged 14.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on about 52/35/81 shooting splits. As the year progressed, Williams became more comfortable and effective, which led him to finish second in Rookie of the Year voting and a first-team all-rookie nod.

Williams now enters his second season and is looking to build off of his good season. The Thunder really didn't go out of their way to make any splash moves, so Williams is primed to play significant minutes again. The 22-year-old showcased his versatility on offense and defense last year, making him a staple in any lineup. During the offseason, Williams gained some weight to play next to talented big man Chet Holmgren. Williams is now expected to be the team's starting power forward for the season.

He is currently being drafted as the 64th overall player, according to the Yahoo Fantasy rankings. You might say that is a good ranking, but in my opinion, I think he can blow this ranking out of the water next year. He will get the same amount of opportunities as last year, and now he is fully acclimated to the NBA. So, with that understanding, I think it's completely feasible for him to perform even better.

Fantasy Basketball Bust: Luguentz Dort

After three stout seasons to start his NBA career, Luguentz Dort was awarded a five-year, $82 million deal in the 2022 offseason. This was a great contract for both sides at the time, but some have argued that he has not lived up to the expectations. Just because I have Dort on my fantasy bust list doesn't mean I think he is bad. I believe Dort is a top-five perimeter defender in the league, but he just won't find as much fantasy success in this upcoming season.

Dort once again will be the starting small forward for OKC and will be tasked with being an effective 3 and D guard. I feel like his scoring and efficiency will take a hit again. The factors causing this are younger players scoring improvements, fewer touches, and his own streaky shooting. Last season, he averaged 13.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists on 38/33/77 shooting splits. While these stats do look kind of solid, he was not good when it came to efficiency. He also saw a dip in points, FG%, and FT% compared to the year before, which is not a good sign at all for him.

Dort is currently slated to go around the mid-to-late rounds in most fantasy rankings, and although this seems like a fair draft spot, I think this could possibly be a risk. His declining numbers and bad efficiency won't help him gain more opportunities on offense. Now calling Dort a fantasy bust does not mean I think he will have a bad season. I'm just not as high on him as some people are.

Fantasy Basketball Lock: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Last season, SGA put himself on the map and became one of the best fantasy players in the entire league. The young guard proved to be one of the league's most proficient scorers and elite defensive players. He averaged 31.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists with one block and 1.6 steals per game. He did this with elite efficiency; his splits were 51/34/90.

SGA proved that he was a certified superstar last year; no matter how many double teams were thrown at him, he continued to shine. His mix of elite pace and shot-making made him an unstoppable force, not to mention his elite perimeter defense, which helped the Thunder improve immensely. Coach Mark Daigneault's offensive system allowed him to thrive as a lead ball handler, and with more weapons being added around him, he should continue to shine.

Gilgeous-Alexander is currently being ranked as the fourth overall player, according to the Yahoo Fantasy rankings. This is the correct ranking for him, in my opinion. I expect another year of stout offensive and defensive performances next season. If you have the opportunity to grab SGA early, make sure that you do; he will once again finish in the top five in fantasy.

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