RADIO
After a week of family vacation, I am rejuvenated and reenergized to finish the PGA Tour with a bang. Up next on the schedule, the PGA Tour players will fly across the Atlantic Ocean to co-host the Scottish Open in conjunction with the DP World Tour. It's a huge event and a great week of preparation for those looking to compete in similar conditions to those which they will have to face in the following week for the final major of the season, The Open Championship.
An incredibly crafted golf course in The Renaissance Club will again be the Scottish Open's host venue. It's a relatively new build Coore & Crenshaw design curated within the old-school vibe of North Berwick, Scotland. The correlation between this new design and those historic venues which are in the Open Championship rota is certainly debatable, it still provides a great test for players to acclimate to the course style and time zones.
As always with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the incoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project course fits and past results in team golf formats. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping this unique event. Here are my top 10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why I think they will crush it this week in Scotland.
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No. 10 - Brian Harman
Slowly creeping back into form just in time to defend the Claret Jug at the Open Championship, Brian Harman checks in at the #10 spot in my Power Rankings. He just gained over 8+ strokes Tee-to-Green at the Travelers Championship which isn't all that surprising given his love for that golf course, but it was his T21 finish at the US Open at Pinehurst that initially caught my attention in the week prior.
Harman has now made seven consecutive cuts which is a good marker for his consistency that was touch-and-go earlier in the season. He also brings some positive experiences at The Renaissance Club this week. Harman managed to finish T12 at this event last year which really continued to elevate his confidence before he demolished the field at The Open Championship. I really like the course fit and I believe the form is trending in the right direction. Plus, he's got the stones!
🚨🪨🪨 Brian Harman was heckled all week, but one comment helped him stay focused after making bogey yesterday:
🗣️“He said Harman, you don’t have the stones for this… It just helped snap me back. I’m good enough to do this, I’m going to do this” #TheOpenpic.twitter.com/WeyUJGee5H
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) July 23, 2023
No. 9 - Hideki Matsuyama
Even on a borderline links course like I would say that the Renaissance Club resembles, having touch and ability around the green becomes extremely important. Well, there has been none better recently in that department than Hideki Matsuyama. He returned to form in early June with Top-10 finishes at both The Memorial Tournament and the US Open. He previously dealt with the standard mid-summer Matsuyama injury concerns before looking great in his return.
The only thing that kept him from being higher in my rankings was that he hadn't faired well in his only appearance at this event since being held at The Renaissance Club. Matsuyama elected to skip this event last season and missed the cut here in 2022. At any rate, the putting concerns should be mitigated here and if he continues to flush his irons with consistency, we know he can contend anywhere. I feel like this could be a sneaky week to use Matsuyama in DFS and betting matchups.
No. 8 - Wyndham Clark
The 2024 Major Championship season has been a complete bust for Wyndham Clark. He's the 3rd highest OWGR-ranked player in the field and recently secured his spot representing Team USA in the upcoming Olympics, but I think that even Clark would admit he's been disappointed in his recent campaign. There is however some reason for optimism for his chances at The Renaissance Club where he has posted a T25 and T16 in the last two seasons.
Clark also enters this week after a T9 finish at the Travelers Championship which is a definite step in the right direction. It's his only Top-10 since the Heritage in April. Clark had gone seven consecutive starts on the PGA Tour before the Travelers with less than one stroke gained on approach in any event. He finally got things going with the irons in Connecticut and completed the week at +3.4 strokes gained on Approach. This could be another "get-right" spot for Clark and a chance to resurrect his year.
No. 7 - Viktor Hovland
There is so much talent bundled up inside of Viktor Hovland that it's hard to imagine a player of his caliber with zero wins this season. Hovland rejoined his old swing coach ahead of the PGA Championship and has finished inside the Top 20 in three of the four starts since, which includes a solo third place at the PGA Championship.
He seems ready to compete at the highest level once again, and judging by his recent pressers, the struggles seem to be more mental than physical. Hovland has been dominating off-the-tee again, utilizing his driver to shred apart golf courses like The Renaissance Club which should be right up his alley in terms of course design. He's making enough birdies to win, it comes down to avoiding the costly errors and bogeys if he is going to get back to the winner's circle.
No. 6 - Tom Kim
I just listed four players that I think could be on the verge of a much-anticipated return to form and meeting expectations. One player that is already doing it, is Tom Kim. After finally lapsing after an exhausted run headed into the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Kim was dialed in at the Travelers Championship, taking Scottie Scheffler to extra holes before finally losing in a playoff.
Kim has been grooving with his driver. He's actually picked up a decent amount of distance, but it's his accuracy that is separating him from the competition. It has also carried him at this event in the past. In 2022, Kim became a household name after nearly winning the Scottish Open before ultimately finishing in solo third. He backed that up in 2023 with a T6. Given where his game is at currently, I fully expect him to be a major factor once again at the Renaissance Club.
🚨🪨🪨 Brian Harman was heckled all week, but one comment helped him stay focused after making bogey yesterday:
🗣️“He said Harman, you don’t have the stones for this… It just helped snap me back. I’m good enough to do this, I’m going to do this” #TheOpenpic.twitter.com/WeyUJGee5H
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) July 23, 2023
No. 5 - Tommy Fleetwood
The PGA Tour has exited United States soil, so therefore Tommy Fleetwood must be a consideration to win. I'm kidding...mostly. Fleetwood has been phenomenal in particular over the last two years at The Renaissance Club, recording a T6 and T4 finish in the books. He's another player like Kim that does his damage with the Driver by continuously hitting the fairway which has shown a strong correlation to success here in the past.
Fleetwood has been incrementally getting better each start on the PGA Tour of late. His last five starts have been T26, T21, T20, T16, 15th. We know Fleetwood has every statistical metric to win a PGA Tour event, whether it be co-sanctioned or not, but I'd have to admit it would be quite fitting for Fleetwood to finally break through and get his win at the Scottish Open.
No. 4 - Ludvig Aberg
I've just about run out of glowingly positive adjectives to describe Ludvig Aberg. He's one the most effortlessly fluent drivers of the golf ball that we have ever seen at such a young age, but it's his mental acuity that he likely doesn't get enough credit for. He's proven that he is not rattled by the pressure of the big moments and frankly, Aberg has none of the negative scar tissue that we see often negatively impact so many players.
I really like Aberg on shorter golf courses like this. The fairways are tough to hit but a player like Aberg possesses the ability to gain on players that he is competing against with both power and accuracy. In 2023, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Ben An were the top three players in terms of strokes gained off the tee at the Scottish Open. All three of them finished T3 or better. The same formula will be followed by Ludvig Aberg this week and he should be set up perfectly for a great week in North Berwick. The purest swing you will ever see.
Ludvig Aberg’s golf swing is absurd.
Soooo pure. pic.twitter.com/gt9nyeIn0g
— LKD (@LukeKerrDineen) January 20, 2024
No. 3 - Collin Morikawa
I have already listed two players who consistently play from the fairway, but this one is the best. Collin Morikawa ranks second in the field in Fairways in Regulation over the last 36 rounds played, and he is primed to earn another victory. Morikawa was the runner-up to Scheffler at The Memorial one month ago and then proceeded to back up that performance with back-to-back Top-15s at both the US Open and Travelers Championship.
He's back to elite-level ball striking and has kept improving with the putter throughout the season. Morikawa seems as ready to win as any player, and he has to be hungry given the time since he last lifted a trophy on the PGA Tour. I'll be anxiously awaiting the outright odds to drop on Monday morning to see if we can squeeze some value from Morikawa despite his missed cut in his only previous attempt at the Scottish Open here. Stay the course if you have been on Morikawa, I still believe it's coming soon!
No. 2 - Rory McIlroy
Last we saw Rory McIlroy, he was skidding his way out of the parking lot at Pinehurst with disappointment and angst dripping all over his face. He then released a rather "processed" statement congratulating DeChambeau, saying that everything was fine and that he needed a break so badly that he elected to WD from the Travelers Championship. Do you believe him? That is the question we all have to answer this week.
If you are interested in backing McIlroy this week and are in search of a little bit of positive news, he returns this week to The Renaissance Club where he epically won the 2023 Scottish Open late on a Sunday in North Berwick. His form and ability are unquestioned, it is just hard to know if there will be any lasting impact from the two late short putts missed by McIlroy on Sunday at Pinehurst. There's nothing like a good narrative switch though...right?
Rory McIlroy’s approach into 18 struck by 2-iron he added to the bag before Scottish Open and plans to use for Open Championship, per @jonathanrwall. pic.twitter.com/zMPP2dv1ds
— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) July 16, 2023
No. 1 - Xander Schauffele
If it were not for a historic season from world #1 Scottie Scheffler, we would all be more hyper-focused on the excellent year being produced by Xander Schauffele. He was the 2022 Champion at the Scottish Open the first time the event was ever hosted at The Renaissance Club. Schauffle checks all the boxes with his form and clearly has the course history to further cement his case at the top of my Power Rankings this week.
Schauffle has exceptional length off the tee and he's been one of the most consistent approach players on the PGA Tour for several seasons now. The big difference this year is that I have noticed that Schauffele is the best putter among the elites in the game. He has gained over four strokes putting in three of his last four starts. He had rid himself of the monkey on his back by winning the PGA Championship and has now had time to reset and recharge for the final major of the summer. He's my favorite to win the Scottish Open for the second time in his career this week!
Enjoy the Scottish Open and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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