RADIO
Matt's wide receiver (WR) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for the Divisional Round of 2025. His WR lineups advice for the Divisional Round fantasy football start/sit decisions.
One week down, three more to go before you can crown yourself a fantasy football postseason champion. Each week, the challenge grows. Options become increasingly more limited. The matchups become less favorable. However, that one final chance at glory keeps pushing us forward.
This week, fantasy managers must look past the names and look into the matchups. Just because a player was once a prominent fantasy star doesn't necessarily make them a must-start option this week.
Here are your RotoBaller Divisional Weekend starts and sits at the wide receiver position.
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Divisional Weekend Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
A.J. Brown - WR, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams
After seeing three targets a week ago, there is bound to be a correction. A.J. Brown finished last week's playoff contest against the Packers with just one reception for 10 yards, leaving fantasy managers gutted, especially those trotting him out there for their one-and-done contests. We have already seen this play out twice this season. Look for Brown to channel his "Inner Excellence" this week.
In Week 9, Brown saw just four targets and finished with 5.6 fantasy points. The following week, Hurts targeted Brown seven times. Brown caught five of those targets for 109 yards. Then, in Week 14, Brown would once again see only four balls head his direction, finishing once again with fewer than 10 fantasy points. The following week, Brown was peppered with 11 targets, recording eight receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown.
If history has taught us anything, it's that it tends to repeat itself. From Weeks 15-17, Brown had an air yards share of 50.8% and a target share of 39.2%, accounting for 37.9% of the Eagles' receiving market share.
Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
For the first time in Terry McLaurin's career, he has a competent quarterback. With Jayden Daniels under center, McLaurin set a new franchise record with 13 touchdown receptions this season, pushing him to the WR7 in fantasy (over 18 weeks).
QBs Terry McLaurin played with before Jayden Daniels:
Case Keenum
Dwayne Haskins
Colt McCoy
Alex Smith
Kyle Allen
Taylor Heinicke
Garrett Gilbert
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Carson Wentz
Sam HowellNo one deserves this more than Scary Terry 🙏 pic.twitter.com/f1wXreltXs
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) January 13, 2025
Since Week 12, McLaurin has averaged more than 18 fantasy points per game and finished with more than 17 fantasy points in six of his last seven outings, including 21.90 this past week against Tampa Bay. Over those seven contests, McLaurin has accounted for more than 36% of the Commanders' air yards, earning a 22.9% target share in the process.
Expect the targets to keep heading in McLaurin's direction. After seeing 10 of Daniels' 35 passing attempts last week, it wouldn't surprise fantasy managers if McLaurin saw closer to a 35% target share this week against the Lions. Detroit has allowed 3,147 receiving yards, 13 touchdown receptions, and 37.18 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season.
Nico Collins - WR, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
I'm not a fan of this matchup, but I love Nico Collins. Could the Texans shock the world and dethrone the champs? Sure. Is it likely to happen? No. This makes Collins an even more appealing target this week in those postseason tournaments.
Last week, against the Los Angeles Chargers, Collins caught seven passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. On the season, Los Angeles allowed 32.75 fantasy points per game. Kansas City has allowed production similar to that of the Chargers against the receiver position this season, allowing 33.22 fantasy points per game. The passing game goes through Collins. In last week's contest, John Metchie III caught four balls for 28 yards. Robert Woods had two receptions for 22 yards, Xavier Hutchinson one for 34 yards. Diontae Johnson had one catch for 12 yards.
NICO TD!
The @HoustonTexans cap off a 13-play, 99-yard drive to take the lead.
📺: #LACvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/nvpKwkjGvH— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2025
The Chiefs' defense has been a funnel defense this season, allowing tight ends to succeed. Looking at Next Gen Stats, 104 of Collins's 122 receiving yards came courtesy of inbreaking routes. Look for the Texans to attack the middle of the field against the Chiefs with Collins for a majority of the game. It will be interesting to see if Chiefs safeties and linebackers, who have struggled at times, can find a way to contain Collins.
Divisional Weekend Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Marquise Brown - WR, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
It's simple for me: Marquise Brown or DeAndre Hopkins will draw coverage from All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr. so I am avoiding that matchup much like my "routine" checkup with my doctor after turning 40.
In two games this season, Brown has nine receptions on 15 targets, which is not too bad. However, that has only translated into 91 receiving yards and 18.1 fantasy points. While I believe Brown will become more involved in this Chiefs offense, I don't think it will be this week.
Over the final four weeks of the fantasy football season, only the Cincinnati Bengals allowed fewer fantasy points per game than the 25.18 per contest the Texans had allowed. In that Week 14 through Week 17 span, Houston allowed 490 receiving yards and just a pair of touchdowns to opposing receivers, with Stingley playing a prominent role.
Last week, Stingley was targeted 10 times, allowing five receptions, and coming away with two interceptions of his own against Justin Herbert. Herbert had only three interceptions all season before throwing four picks against the Texans in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Stingley, along with Kamari Lassiter, has forced 11 interceptions this season, 112 tackles, and 35 passes deflected.
I am frankly blown away by the #Texans’ young lockdown CB duo of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter.
The speed at which they play is only matched by their playmaking prowess as cover guys and ballhawks. It’s easy to become enamored with their sheer athleticism, but don’t… pic.twitter.com/6SgZcwSyph
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) January 12, 2025
Amari Cooper - WR, Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sometimes, if it's broken, there is no point in fixing it, and you are better off simply discarding it. Let's look at all the receivers that had more receiving yards last week for the Bills than Amari Cooper. There was Curtis Samuel (68), Khalil Shakir (61), and Mack Hollins (19). Even Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Ty Johnson all had more than the eight receiving yards Cooper was responsible for.
While the Ravens have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, Baltimore has seemingly adjusted in recent weeks, allowing just 26.38 fantasy points, the third-fewest during Weeks 14 through 17.
Cooper could be productive after watching George Pickens post 19.7 fantasy points last week, hauling in five passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. After Pickens, the production was non-existent as Mike Williams, Van Jefferson, and Calvin Austin III combined for four receptions for 99 yards.
Jameson Williams - WR, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders
Let's give Jameson Williams the credit he deserves after he finished 2024 as the WR23 in fantasy, averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game. Williams has done an excellent job refining his game, becoming a much more complete receiver, registering 10 double-digit fantasy performances in 14 contests.
As much as Williams has improved throughout the season, so has the Commanders' pass defense. Marshon Lattimore made his Commanders debut last week against Mike Evans and the Buccaneers. With another game under his belt, Lattimore should further improve a defense that allowed 29.49 fantasy points per game, seventh-fewest, over the final quarter of the fantasy football season.
Detroit is likely to play some smash-mouth football this week to control the clock, keep the ball away from Jayden Daniels, and play to its strengths against the Commanders' weaknesses. Washington possesses the 13th-ranked defense overall this season, finishing third against the pass but 30th against the run.
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