May 5, 2016

Kyle Bishop takes a look at which MLB hitters and pitchers you should keep, drop, or trade for during week 5 of the 2016 MLB fantasy baseball season.

Last week’s buys did pretty well. Miguel Sano hasn’t gone deep since last week’s column, but he did start May by going 5-for-11 with three doubles and a couple of walks. He’s pushed his batting average up to .260 and, when the homers start coming, that’s plenty good enough. Though Chris Archer wasn’t dominant in his last start, he still managed to hold the dangerous Blue Jays lineup to a single run in six innings.

Meanwhile, on the sell side of the equation, Jean Segura is dealing with a hip injury, which feels like it will provide a convenient narrative that covers for the inevitable regression to his true talent level. He’s hitting just .250/.294/.313 since last week’s installment of this feature. Jordan Zimmermann kept right on chugging, though, with seven innings of one-run ball. He struck out seven because, well, he was facing the Twins.

But we’re not here to talk about the past. Let’s look at some more players to consider acquiring or dealing away this week.

Week 5 Buys

Marcus Semien, SS, Oakland Athletics

Yes, Semien is currently hitting a cool .195. But he also has six homers in under 100 plate appearances and, y’know, is a shortstop currently available for free in over half of Yahoo leagues. Plus, his .186 BABIP is sixth-lowest of any qualified hitter and over 100 points below his career mark. Even if he is selling out for power, as his flyball heavy profile suggests, some positive regression is likely there. Also encouraging – while the strikeouts haven’t come down, the walks have risen. And while the A’s don’t run much, Semien stole 11 bags last year and has the speed to improve on that.

Ian Kennedy, SP, Kansas City Royals

For one reason or another, I didn’t end up with any shares of Kennedy this season. It wasn’t for lack of faith, however. Kennedy has taken to the Royals’ excellent defense and friendly confines about as well as I thought he would. His strikeout and walk rates are solid as usual. Importantly, he’s done a pretty good job keeping the ball in the yard so far, with only three dingers allowed in 31 innings (all on the road).

Week 5 Sells

Mark Trumbo, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

Trumbo has always had impressive power and been a streaky hitter, so in a sense, his blistering start isn’t terribly surprising. He had a similar stretch last year, in fact. You shouldn’t expect it to continue. He’s chasing a little less and making a bit more contact on pitches in the strike zone, but in all other respects Trumbo is essentially doing what he’s always done. Not that that’s bad! He did average 32 homers and 94 RBI from 2011-13. Those numbers will play in any format. But his .403 BABIP will come down (career .294) and so will the 27.6% HR/FB (career 18.3%). If anyone in your league is willing to pay full freight for this not-actually-new-and-improved Trumbo, now’s the time to strike.

Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

The love that Garcia gets in some corners of the fantasy community is kind of mind boggling, to be frank. Here’s a dude who hasn’t pitched more than 130 innings since 2011. When he has been healthy, he’s posted a 7.24 K/9 and 12.4 K-BB%. Among the 113 starters who have thrown at least 750 innings since 2008 (a threshold which Garcia barely passes!) those marks rank 63^rd and 52^nd, respectively. His 1.26 WHIP? 44^th. He’s not all that young anymore, either, as he’ll turn 30 in July. His second start this year was an absolute murking of the Brewers, a one-hitter with 13 punchouts. Here are his season numbers otherwise: 4.84 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 22/13 K/BB. And he’s 82 percent owned! Enjoy the inevitable DL stint, you poor souls. Or, better yet, don’t.

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