December 22, 2016

Nick Mariano's week 16 fantasy football rankings analysis for the 2016 NFL season. Consensus rankings comparison for running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks.

To recap Week 15: Philip Rivers wasn’t special at all, but Colin Kaepernick earned his bump and Dak Prescott didn’t have a QB1 game. Bill Belichick opted to use his agile running backs instead of LeGarrette Blount, but at least he got a cheap TD to salvage his day, unlike Thomas Rawls.

Knocking both Denver WRs down was a good call, as that entire offense is just in Struggle City right now. Robby Anderson delivered on his double-digit bump, while Brandon Marshall owners continue to stew. We also said Delanie Walker wouldn’t have a great game, though Eric Ebron couldn’t do anything either. Overall, pretty darn good on the calls. Let's keep it going in Week 16.

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Week 16 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Week of the Matts here, as I’ve got Matt Ryan up at #2 against a current #6 consensus. I wager that’ll rise a bit as the week progresses, but I think people will now overstate Carolina’s defense after their primetime victory. Ryan should get Julio Jones back and I highly doubt that Devonta Freeman scores three touchdowns against a sturdy front seven for the Panthers. Atlanta’s defense won’t win this game for them either, so I suspect an NFC South shootout in Carolina this week with Ryan’s arm in the spotlight.

The other one is Matt Barkley of course, who I have up at #15 against a #20 consensus ranking. Barkley will defend Soldier Field against a freshly-embarrassed Washington team. Even if we grant that Alshon Jeffery is limited by Josh Norman, Barkley has finally showed some consistent rapport with Cameron Meredith. The third-string QB is very unlikely to have a mistake-free game, but he’ll generate the points at the end of the day. Chicago’s defense was also embarrassed this past week, and Kirk Cousins should be able to pick them apart.

Week 16 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Did I say Kirk Cousins should pick them apart? I meant Robert Kelley will, and that’s why I have him at #11 against a #16 consensus mark. I know his Week 15 effort against Carolina wasn’t pretty, but he showed some promise by getting involved in the passing game and that matchup was awful anyhow. That’s why he’s featured this week, and wasn’t last week. Ty Montgomery and the Packers just shredded Chicago’s defense last week, as the Bears really suffered without NT Eddie Goldman around. Kelley is a different runner than TyMont for sure, but he should have success here.

Falling in my rankings is Carlos Hyde, who I’ve slipped to #15 against a #9 consensus. While his 13 carries for 71 yards last week was very healthy, we saw the limitations of gamescript thanks to an all-around awful team. That shouldn’t be a huge factor in Week 16 against fellow NFC-West disappointments in the Rams. While many are looking at Hyde’s Week 1 against LA (23-88-2 TDs on the ground), I see how well the Rams played last week against Thomas Rawls. The second game of a season’s divisional series is usually more of a defensive battle, especially with neither of these teams boasting killer offenses.

Week 16 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I made a swap in my top 10, with Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson trading slots. The consensus has Nelson above Coop, but I’m not buying it this week. That meant that Michael Crabtree is currently above Cooper, which I’m reading as a bit of an overreaction after Cooper was shadowed by San Diego’s Casey Hayward last week. This left Crabtree as a predictable beneficiary, but the Colts don’t have this effect on opponents. In fact, they get absolutely flamed by opposing #1 receivers. They are 29^th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average against #1 WRs, while they’re seventh vs. #2 WRs and 11^th against the slot.

Meanwhile, Nelson will have to tangle with Xavier Rhodes – who wasn’t active in Week Two when these teams first played this season – and that’s just not good for Jordy. He’ll also deal with Terrence Newman when free of Rhodes, and Newman just so happens to have carried a wonderful 86.2 PFF rating into Week 15. At least Green Bay is at home here, and with their recent play it’s difficult to bump Nelson from WR1 territory as a whole, but #5 is too high.

Week 16 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Alright, we’re going to take the same approach here as we did last week. Eric Ebron will get bumped to #7 from #12 and we’re going to fade the TE facing the Cardinals from the #6 slot to #12, also known as Jimmy Graham.

After watching the Lions-Giants game, I felt comfortable with the process. Matthew Stafford honestly missed a wide open Ebron at least twice on what would’ve been big gainers. NYG is weakest against the TE, a trait that they share with Detroit’s Week 16 opponent, Dallas. We just saw Cameron Brate have a very solid game against them, and Ebron should be able to follow suit. Stafford, whose one-finger glove really didn’t appear to affect his throw, just needs to hit him.

As for Graham, what more to you need to see at this point out of Arizona to simply avoid them? I know Delanie Walker didn’t post a complete goose egg in Week 15, but he wasn’t even a top-12 play. What makes Graham, who was practically invisible against the Rams in Week 15, any better of a bet than those who have tried and failed thus far? The answer is nothing, correct. Do something else with your TE life for Week 16.

I’d rather talk more about the skill positions than include kicker or defense, as they are far less interesting to me. Feel free to send me a vitriolic message should you want them back, I’ll listen I swear.