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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC Fight Night, Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Ciryl Gane. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
After an exciting affair last week that featured the past and future of the UFC’s heavyweight division, two more fighters will look to impress.
A battle between knockout artists Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Ciryl Gane will look to continue the momentum of the division. Who will come out on top?
By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining who will be able to get their hands raised.
UFC Fight Night: Fighter Backgrounds
One of the most intimidating fighters in the UFC today, Rozenstruik started as a kickboxer. Competing for promotions like SUPERKOMBAT, SLAMM!!, and the WLF, Rosenstruik has won multiple tournament titles. After a career in which he had 76 wins, 64 via KO, he made the move to MMA.
Fighting all over, including promotions like Draka and RIZIN, Rozenstruik made his way to the UFC in 2019. He won four straight fights via some form of knockout, one a memorable buzzer beater against Alistair Overeem. On a roll, Rozenstruik was immediately booked into a top fight against Francis Ngannou at UFC 249. It would be Rozenstruik, however, who would fall less than a minute into the first round. He bounced back by beating former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior dos Santos in August via TKO.
The 32-year-old is ranked fourth in the UFC's heavyweight rankings. Knowing how busy it is, especially with Jon Jones lurking, Rozenstruik believes two more wins, this one included, could result in a title shot.
Gane, a Muay Thai competitor, made his MMA and heavyweight debut in 2018. He poetically won the TKO Heavyweight Title via TKO. Making his UFC debut in 2019, Gane, beat Raphael Pessoa via submission. It wasn't until his fourth fight with the promotion this past December where he beat dos Santos via TKO.
Ranked seventh in the UFC’s heavyweight rankings, the 30-year-old Gane has been slowly breaking out to become a true contender. In a crowded division, he is doing everything in his (literal and figurative) power to stand out.
Ngannou will be getting a title shot against Stipe Miocic, and Derrick Lewis is right behind him. How long until we see one of these two fighting for a title?
UFC Fight Night: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook has Rozenstruik as the +210 underdog, with Gane the -265 favorite. Understanding of his position, Rozenstruik knows he has to take Gane out right away. Can he break the man from France out?
Both fighters, who are relatively new to the UFC, are relatively even inside the octagon. Gane has a 54% Significant Strike Accuracy advantage against Rosenstruik's 51%. He has also landed about 5.61 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute compared to Rozenstruik's 4.04. With a 73% Significant Strike Defense and a 60% Takedown Accuracy rate (0% for the heavy-hitting Rozenstruik), however, the hype for Gane appears to be justified.
The finish rate of both (90.9 for Rozenstruik and 85.7% for Gane) is out of this world. Both make quick work of their opponents so their octagon time is limited. On paper, the power between the two could result in a true barnburner. Sometimes, however, a heavyweight bout has two sides to it. Will it be a fast bout like Rozenstruik v. Ngannou or a methodical game of chess like Ngannou v. Lewis?
As far as who can walk out of Las Vegas the winner, the stats are on the side of Gane here. He has an edge in footwork, speed, and defense. During Rozenstruik’s fight with Overeem, the former was losing as a result of Overeem’s pacing and avoidance of the straight power shot. If Gane can expose Rozenstruik’s faults, it could be game over. He could also surprise everyone by pulling out a few submission attempts; Gane has three wins via some form of submission.
That does not mean, however, that “Bigi Boy” doesn’t have a shot. He can strike at any point, and one mistake by Gane could be his downfall. We saw that during Curtis Blaydes’ bout with Derrick Lewis, where “The Black Beast” knocked out “Razor” as he was going for his patented takedown. Rozenstruik has looked as ready as he ever has been for a fight, but it will during fight night where he needs to truly show that.
The heavyweight division is on a roll. Both fighters will look to take advantage and make a statement in front of UFC President Dana White. A hungry Gane, who has a big height advantage, may have what it takes to spice things up.
Prediction: Gane via TKO (round two)
