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Dan Yanofsky analyzes the UFC 258 main event, Usman vs. Burns, and predicts the winning fighter. Read our MMA analysis, betting picks and DFS picks weekly.
This weekend, at UFC 258, two of the best welterweights in the world face off to determine who will be the UFC Welterweight Champion.
A lot is on the line here, from legacies to future super fights. Who will walk out of Las Vegas as the champion? Who do you trust as the betting favorite?
Before we determine that, though, we must examine the history of both fighters.
UFC 258: Fighter Backgrounds
Usman started his MMA career in 2012. After losing the second fight of his career, he never looked back, going 17-0 between Legacy FC and the UFC. While with the UFC, Usman has won all but three of those contests via unanimous decision. A collegiate wrestling champion, Usman has used his ground game to take down and wear out his opponents. Usman's skills have resulted in him becoming a dominant UFC Welterweight Champion.
Since 2018, Usman has taken down favorites, contenders, and champions, notably Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington, and Jorge Masvidal. Regarding Woodley, Usman ragdolled the then-current UFC Welterweight Champion for five rounds. He then went to war with Colby Covington before stomping on the feet of Jorge Masvidal this past July. While he is known for his wrestling, Usman has also landed bombs. Just ask the jaw of Covington, which broke in the middle of their fight at UFC 245.
"The Nigerian Nightmare" takes on a fighter who has taken over the UFC welterweight division in Gilbert Burns. A multi-time submission grappling champion, including the 2011 World Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Champion, Burns made his debut in 2012. In 15 fights with the UFC, Burns is 12-3, and he is currently on a six-fight win streak.
Since losing to Dan Hooker at UFC 226, Burns won two more fights before returning to welterweight, a division he wasn't a part of since 2014. During that time, he won fights against Alexey Kunchenko, Gunnar Nelson, Maia, and Woodley. Burns took out the favorite in Maia with ease and then wouldn't give Woodley a chance to breathe.
UFC 258: Fight Outlook and Prediction
Both are coming into the fight in perfect condition and would be considered even. The books, however, say otherwise. When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook has Usman as the -278 favorite against Burns' +220. Usman's line has ranged from -230 to -280. Is it right to call it that far in favor of Usman, or is there more to Burns than meets the eye?
Usman has thrown 4.50 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute, higher than Burns' 3.15. He is also much more accurate than Burns, landing 53% of his shots compared to 46%. Since the Maia fight, Usman has landed 479 shots in five fights. Since making the move back to welterweight, Burns has landed 168 strikes. The champion also trumps Burns in takedown advantage (3.38 compared to 2.21) and takedown accuracy (47% compared to 37%).
Now, by looking at the advanced stats, Burns has a 73.7% finish rate compared to Usman's 47.1%. Could the fact that Usman has been in more five-minute rounds (47.7 rounds competed in compared to 38.9 for Burns), thus more cage time, play a factor?
As far as who can take it all home, Usman has a five-inch reach advantage over Burns. That could be very difficult for a fighter like Burns as he sees Usman grabbing after or hitting him all night long. Usman is a much more imposing figure, especially after seeing his body of work against bigger guys. A striking wrestler is something that coach Henri Hooft has perfected in the form of Usman. This is especially true when at any point, he can provide enough pressure to end a fight.
For Burns, another fighter from Hooft’s camp, he must counter shots as best as he can while changing levels. He can’t trade shots with Usman for long unless he gets a big blow. Even so, if he tries for too much power, it can tire him out. Going right away for the ground and staying on top will be a major factor for him if he wants to throw Usman off of his game.
On paper, it appears that Usman has the advantage, but you can never count Burns out. Both fighters know one another so well, considering they are teammates. Once the cage door closes, however, all bets are off. Burns may be worthy of a title shot, but it is hard not to give Usman the respect he has earned.
Prediction: Usman via round four TKO
