RADIO
We're back for Week 8 after finally getting back on the board last week. It wasn't great, and I'll still tell you to fade what I pick here, but it was progress. College football is a different animal and it's clear I've struggled to find the right value of late, but there's still a lot of football left to be played.
- Week 7 Picks: 1-2 (33%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 11-12 (48%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NCAA schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet.
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Florida State at Wake Forest (-2)
O/U: 69
The Seminoles have been testing the waters with a two-quarterback system over the past few weeks, and it’s gone about as well as you could think of. While the team is 2-1 over that period, neither James Blackman or Alex Hornibrook seem to be comfortable with the way things are going. Defensively, FSU has been pretty rough, allowing at least 24 points in five of their last six games. However, what goes lost in conversation is that 49 of the 193 points they’ve allowed this year is off of turnovers.
Wake Forest might be without quarterback Jamie Newman (shoulder) after he was forced out last week’s game. Sam Hartman did a solid job as backup, but don’t expect it again if Newman is forced to miss Saturday night. On the ground, the Demon Deacons have four players with over 275 yards rushing, including Newman, so it’s not like they’re one dimensional. On defense, Wake is more vulnerable through the air (allow 12.5 yards per catch), and that's with their weak schedule to start the season.
Consider the fact that FSU’s quarterback situation is a mess, and Wake Forest might be without theirs, and it’s hard to trust either offense. Also keep in mind that in the last five times these two have met, the total has gone under, and over that same stretch, the highest combined point total was 55.
Pick: Under 69
Baylor at Oklahoma State (-3.5)
O/U: 68.5
The Bears snuck past Texas Tech a week ago in double-overtime, but they should consider themselves lucky. Quarterback Charlie Brewer threw for 352 yards, while rushing for three touchdowns, but he also tossed three interceptions. Fortunately, their defense forced three turnovers to keep them in it. Brewer might be a great dual-threat option, but if Baylor wants to avoid disaster, he can't put himself in a similar position against Ok State.
Oklahoma State is led from beginning to end by running back Chubba Hubbard. The NCAA's-leading rusher is fresh off of three scores last week, in a loss to Texas Tech. However, quarterback Spencer Sanders has had his own problems taking care of the football, including last week's dismal game, where he threw three picks with a pair of fumbles. Hubbard will again need to be a major piece for the Cowboys, as Baylor houses the top-ranked scoring defense in the Big 12 (17.8 ppg).
Both teams have seemed to have issues with ball security recently, despite housing two high-powered attacks. However, I think Baylor is able to slow up Hubbard enough that OSU will be forced to pass more than they're comfortable with. From a total points perspective, three of the last four games, on either side, have gone under. Keep in mind that the Cowboys are 11-1 in their last 12 against Baylor, so you could also play the points, but I’ll be playing the under.
Pick: Under 68.5
Oregon at Washington (+3)
O/U: 50
Oregon has built themselves quite a team thus far. Not only do they have NFL quarterback prospect Justin Herbert playing at top potential (17 TD), but their defense has allowed just one touchdown in their last five games, and their 8.7 points allowed per game is third in the country. That’s quite a combination and one that will give Washington all they can handle.
The Huskies made up for the recent loss to Stanford with a 51-27 drubbing of Arizona last week. Jacob Eason is establishing himself as a top-tier quarterback, but his weapons around him, especially Salvon Ahmed, have helped carry Washington thus far. Defensively, they’ve been solid, with last week’s game serving as the highest point total they’ve allowed all year. However, with 363 yards allowed a game, they have their vulnerabilities.
Dating back to the start of 2018, the total has gone under in 10 of Washington’s 14 Pac-12 games, while the under has hit in seven of 12 conference games for Oregon. While these two teams have incredible defenses, their offense’s don’t seem to be getting enough credit. It’s important to note that the total opened at 56 and has dropped 5.5 points since. Everyone is expecting a low-scoring game due to the defenses. Not me.
Pick: Over 50
