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Thursday Night Football MKF Prop Picks: Browns vs Broncos

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Browns and Broncos and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight we kick off Week 7 with the Cleveland Browns hosting the Denver Broncos.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

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Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos: More or Less Contest

This game seems like it’s doomed to be a miserable Thursday night performance. Cleveland has 18 players on their injury report, which doesn’t even factor in players on Injured Reserve. However, they seem to be healthy on the defensive side of the ball, and Defensive Coordinator Joe Woods has been very aggressive with this unit. Melvin Gordon has gone for less than 53.5 yards in each of his last two contests, and he’s 3-of-6 on the year. In the team’s three losses, he has yet to go for more than 10 carries. With the presence of Javonte Williams looming and an aggressive defense in front of him, Gordon just doesn’t get enough volume to be confident in this play going for more. 

This line has a few main factors working against it. For one, Odell Beckham Jr. is hurt. For two, he’s got a backup quarterback in Case Keenum throwing him the ball. Keenum took the majority of the snaps this week, but he hasn’t been a full-time starter since early in the 2019 season. and Beckham is 2-of-4 against this mark this season, and the matchup this week is set up to slow him down. Denver still has a strong defense at all three levels, and the Browns prefer to run the ball when they can. If they can get out to a lead, Beckham could quickly see a reduced role in the offense.

Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight

 

Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos: More or Less Contest

  • Courtland Sutton MORE than 69.5 receiving yards
  • D’Ernest Johnson MORE than 55.5 rushing yards

Courtland Sutton started the year with a bad outing, but he’s been solid since. He leads the NFL in average air yards per game, and he has a 26.4 percent market share of his team’s air yards. With Jerry Jeudy (ankle) still sidelined for this game, Sutton remains the featured part of this offense, and he has seen double-digit targets in each of his last two games. As long as Denver doesn’t blow Cleveland out, Sutton should go for more than this line.

Cleveland wants to run the ball. They’re without arguably the league’s best running back duo, and it doesn’t matter. D’Ernest Johnson is a more than capable backup, and he can hold down the fort in the meantime. In his lone game as a full-time player last season, he had 13 carries for 95 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. With Keenum under center, the Browns will likely be trying to get this game over with as quickly as possible while coming out with a win. The best way to do that is to run the ball with Johnson and keep the clock moving.

 

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Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos: More or Less Contest

  • D’Ernest Johnson MORE than 11.5 fantasy points
  • Noah Fant LESS than 11.5 fantasy points

This is relying on a friendly game script. If Cleveland falls behind early, we could run into a situation where teammate Demetric Felton sees a lot of snaps thanks to his work as a receiver. I don’t believe that’s going to happen. Since starting 3-0, the Broncos have lost three straight games where they were never particularly close in the game. Cleveland has three losses on their record as well, to the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Arizona Cardinals. Two of those were one-score games. Cleveland is the better team here, and they should be able to get Johnson involved, especially down near the goal line.

Last week was just the second game where Noah Fant had seen double-digit targets this season, and it was the first time since Week 1 that he had more than 50 receiving yards in a game. Fant is second on the team in targets, but he just doesn’t have the same ceiling with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Throw in the fact the Browns are giving up an average of just 30.5 receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, and you’re counting on Fant to have a touchdown again. Relying on touchdowns for non-RBs or number-one wide receivers is bad practice.

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Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos: Rapid Fire Contest

Bridgewater is a full-time starting quarterback, while Keenum hasn’t been a full-time starter in the NFL since early in the 2019 season. He got the majority of the practice reps this week, but the team’s identity is on the ground. If everything goes according to plan, Kevin Stefanski will have no problem letting Keenum just turn around and hand the ball off all night while Bridgewater throws to keep Denver in the game. In the Johnson vs Gordon matchup, the argument is largely the same as it is for Bridgewater vs Keenum. Johnson and the Browns want to build a lead and run the ball. As long as they’re able to do that, Gordon won’t receive as heavy of a workload, which limits his overall output. 

 

Play the Rapid Fire Contest on Monkey Knife Fight



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NBA

Trey Jemison III Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
NBA

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

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Returns To The Win Column
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' Week 3 Status in Doubt
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Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
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Wins Back-To-Back Fights
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Dealing with Wrist Injury
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Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
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Gets Back In The Win Column
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Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
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Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
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Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
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Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

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Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
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Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
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Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
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Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
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CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
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John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
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Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
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Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
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Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

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Corey Perry

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Kyle Busch

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Ricky Stenhouse Jr

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Michael McDowell

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Chase Elliott

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NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

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Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
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CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
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Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

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CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
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CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
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Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

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In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

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David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
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Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension

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