Thursday Night Football MKF Prop Picks: Browns vs Broncos

October 21, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Browns and Broncos and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight we kick off Week 7 with the Cleveland Browns hosting the Denver Broncos.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

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Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos: More or Less Contest

• Melvin Gordon LESS than 53.5 rushing yards
• Odell Beckham Jr. LESS than 55.5 receiving yards

This game seems like it’s doomed to be a miserable Thursday night performance. Cleveland has 18 players on their injury report, which doesn’t even factor in players on Injured Reserve. However, they seem to be healthy on the defensive side of the ball, and Defensive Coordinator Joe Woods has been very aggressive with this unit. Melvin Gordon has gone for less than 53.5 yards in each of his last two contests, and he’s 3-of-6 on the year. In the team’s three losses, he has yet to go for more than 10 carries. With the presence of Javonte Williams looming and an aggressive defense in front of him, Gordon just doesn’t get enough volume to be confident in this play going for more. 

This line has a few main factors working against it. For one, Odell Beckham Jr. is hurt. For two, he’s got a backup quarterback in Case Keenum throwing him the ball. Keenum took the majority of the snaps this week, but he hasn’t been a full-time starter since early in the 2019 season. and Beckham is 2-of-4 against this mark this season, and the matchup this week is set up to slow him down. Denver still has a strong defense at all three levels, and the Browns prefer to run the ball when they can. If they can get out to a lead, Beckham could quickly see a reduced role in the offense.

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Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos: More or Less Contest

• Courtland Sutton MORE than 69.5 receiving yards
• D’Ernest Johnson MORE than 55.5 rushing yards

Courtland Sutton started the year with a bad outing, but he’s been solid since. He leads the NFL in average air yards per game, and he has a 26.4 percent market share of his team’s air yards. With Jerry Jeudy (ankle) still sidelined for this game, Sutton remains the featured part of this offense, and he has seen double-digit targets in each of his last two games. As long as Denver doesn’t blow Cleveland out, Sutton should go for more than this line.

Cleveland wants to run the ball. They’re without arguably the league’s best running back duo, and it doesn’t matter. D’Ernest Johnson is a more than capable backup, and he can hold down the fort in the meantime. In his lone game as a full-time player last season, he had 13 carries for 95 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. With Keenum under center, the Browns will likely be trying to get this game over with as quickly as possible while coming out with a win. The best way to do that is to run the ball with Johnson and keep the clock moving.

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Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos: More or Less Contest

• D’Ernest Johnson MORE than 11.5 fantasy points
• Noah Fant LESS than 11.5 fantasy points

This is relying on a friendly game script. If Cleveland falls behind early, we could run into a situation where teammate Demetric Felton sees a lot of snaps thanks to his work as a receiver. I don’t believe that’s going to happen. Since starting 3-0, the Broncos have lost three straight games where they were never particularly close in the game. Cleveland has three losses on their record as well, to the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Arizona Cardinals. Two of those were one-score games. Cleveland is the better team here, and they should be able to get Johnson involved, especially down near the goal line.

Last week was just the second game where Noah Fant had seen double-digit targets this season, and it was the first time since Week 1 that he had more than 50 receiving yards in a game. Fant is second on the team in targets, but he just doesn’t have the same ceiling with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Throw in the fact the Browns are giving up an average of just 30.5 receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, and you’re counting on Fant to have a touchdown again. Relying on touchdowns for non-RBs or number-one wide receivers is bad practice.

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Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos: Rapid Fire Contest

• Teddy Bridgewater -20.5 passing yards vs Case Keenum & D’Ernest Johnson -2.5 rushing yards vs Melvin Gordon

Bridgewater is a full-time starting quarterback, while Keenum hasn’t been a full-time starter in the NFL since early in the 2019 season. He got the majority of the practice reps this week, but the team’s identity is on the ground. If everything goes according to plan, Kevin Stefanski will have no problem letting Keenum just turn around and hand the ball off all night while Bridgewater throws to keep Denver in the game. In the Johnson vs Gordon matchup, the argument is largely the same as it is for Bridgewater vs Keenum. Johnson and the Browns want to build a lead and run the ball. As long as they’re able to do that, Gordon won’t receive as heavy of a workload, which limits his overall output. 

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