RADIO
Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to the RotoBaller Thanksgiving Thursday start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 12! Many - including myself - believe Thanksgiving is the single best football day of the year, and 2023 gives us three compelling matchups to fill us up all day long. That is, of course, if the turkey and stuffing haven't done that already.
Thanksgiving Thursday will bring us three games, so there will be lots of fantasy football start/sit and lineup decisions to be made. First, on Thursday, the Green Bay Packers visit the red-hot Detroit Lions in a key NFC North divisional matchup. Following this game, we have the Washington Commanders traveling to take on the Dallas Cowboys. This mid-afternoon game might be the best opportunity for you to sneak in a nap in what should be a blowout in the second half. To end the day, we have The San Francisco 49ers visiting Seattle to take on the Seahawks to see who will be leading the NFC West division
Each week, I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. But with an oversized three games on this holiday Thursday, there are plenty of start/sit decisions to make.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions - 12:30 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Actives/Inactives Report for notable injuries:
- Aaron Jones (RB, GBP) - Knee - DOUBTFUL
- Luke Musgrave (TE, GBP) - Abdomen - OUT
- Dontayvion Wicks (WR, GBP) - Concussion - QUESTIONABLE
- A.J. Dillon (RB, GBP) - Groin - QUESTIONABLE
- Jayden Reed (WR, GBP) - Chest - QUESTIONABLE
Green Bay RB Aaron Jones (knee) is unlikely to play this week after being carted off in LA. The injury isn't considered long-term right now, but enough to make him miss this week and possibly next.
— lindsey ok (@lindseyyok) November 22, 2023
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
The Sun God has one finish outside the top-12 wide receivers in his last six games and has only finished outside WR2 numbers once this season. His 31.3% target share is fourth-best among receivers in the last three weeks.
David Montgomery (RB, DET)
In the two games since he returned from injury, Montgomery has been a top-1o back in half-PPR formats both weeks even with Jahmyr Gibbs now taking over more of the snaps. Assuming the Lions have a lead in the second half, Montgomery should be the one who closes out the game for the Lions.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)
Gibbs has seen almost 60% of the snaps in both games since Montgomery has come back, and hasn't finished lower than RB6 in any of the past four games. Only Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey have a higher target share among running backs in the last three weeks.
Jahmyr Gibbs overall PPR fantasy finishes since returning from injury:
RB2
RB1
RB2
RB3Pretty, pretty, pretty good
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 21, 2023
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Christian Watson (WR, GBP)
Watson is a borderline flex play for the Packers this week against the Lions. Detroit has allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers this year, and that is usually when Watson gets himself into big games. Four of the five games where Watson has not scored a touchdown, he finished outside WR60 for the week.
Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed (WRs, GBP)
Doubs and Reed now lead the Packers in target share on the season and both have seen exactly 11 targets over the last two weeks. Doubs' second-best finish of the season came in Week 4 against the Lions when he torched them for nine receptions and 95 yards. If forced to pick between the two, I lean toward Doubs but Reed also got involved in the running game last week, which spikes his value.
Romeo Doubs snatches this ball out of the air for a touchdown — his 4th in five games and his 7th this seasonpic.twitter.com/1HOjBzIeHm
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) November 19, 2023
A.J. Dillon (RB, GBP)
The Lions are a top-1o team against running backs this year, but it looks like A.J. Dillon will have this backfield all to himself on Thanksgiving. Dillon finished as RB24 after Aaron Jones left with injury last week and he also put up RB12 numbers in Week 5, the last time Jones did not play.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Green Bay has actually been stingy against QBs this year, but "Home" Jared Goff is a thing in 2023. In five games at home, he has a 70% completion rate and 12 total touchdowns. In five road games, he is completing 65% of his passes and has six total touchdowns.
Jared Goff has averaged 6.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his #Lions tenure, the most extreme split among current starters.
Goff has had 9 of his 10 three-plus-TD Lions performances at home in Detroit.
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 16, 2023
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
Only 10 targets in the last two weeks has been disappointing, but LaPorta still ranks sixth among all tight ends in target share in 2023. He's also fourth in air yards at the position, so he is getting deep balls from Goff on a regular basis.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jordan Love (QB, DET)
Jordan Love's finish as QB9 against the Chargers in Week 11 was the first time he finished better than 12th since Week 3. He does have two passing touchdowns each of the last two weeks, and the Packers are more than a touchdown underdog, so as a Superflex play or a streamer in a 12- or 14-team league, he is borderline viable.
Tucker Kraft (TE, GBP)
Luke Musgrave got six targets in Week 11, but I don't expect that trend to continue for Tucker Kraft who will likely take his place in Week 12. Detroit has been a stout team against tight ends at home this year.
Jameson Williams (WR, DET)
Over the last three weeks, Green Bay has the sixth-best yards per pass attempt allowed to opponents (just 5.5 yards). That takes away a big part of Jameson Williams' game and he is just a dart throw with all wide receivers in play this week.
T.J. Hockenson has five drops this season on 92 targets.
Jameson Williams has five drops this season on 17 targets.
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) November 16, 2023
Kirksey’s Thanksgiving Picks
Current Spread: DET -7.5, TOTAL: 46.5
Picks: DET -7.5, OVER 46.5
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys - 4:30 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Actives/Inactives Report for notable injuries:
- Antonio Gibson (RB, WSH) - Toe - QUESTIONABLE
- Rico Dowdle (RB, DAL) - Ankle - QUESTIONABLE
- Michael Gallup (WR, DAL) - Personal - QUESTIONABLE
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
It's a pretty simple equation this week. The Commanders allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and Dak Prescott is on one of the hottest streaks of his career. He has four top-three finishes in his last five games.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Dak's excellence has, of course, led to huge weeks for Lamb as well. He has four top-1o finishes in the last five weeks and the Commanders have given up the most receiving yards and touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
Most receiving yards when in the slot this season:
🔥 CeeDee Lamb - 523 pic.twitter.com/0UqOTsWS24
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 20, 2023
Brandin Cooks (WR, DAL)
Cooks now ranks second on the Cowboys in target share. He also ranks 27th in the league in average target distance (12.3 yards) while the Commanders allow the second-highest yards per completion to opponents this season (11.5 yards).
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
Pollard finally found the end zone last week, his first time since Week 1. His volume and workload still are elite and the Commanders have allowed nine total touchdowns to running backs this season including four through the air, second-most in the league.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
Jake Ferguson has seen his targets decrease for three straight weeks, but he still has a 17.2% share on the year and only four teams have given up more receiving touchdowns to the position than Washington.
Sam Howell (QB, WSH)
Despite throwing just one touchdown compared to three picks, Howell still finished as QB10 against the Giants last week, his fifth straight top-10 finish. He leads the NFL in passing attempts and passing yards and now comes into Dallas as a major underdog. The rushing he provides also gives Howell a nice 2-5 point boost each week.
Sam Howell leads all QBs in completion % and yards while under pressure.
He's completing 57% of his passes and has racked up 1,001 yards under pressure, 256 more than anybody else. (Sometimes the pressure is his own fault, but he's done well under durress). #Commanders
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) November 22, 2023
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WSH)
Brian Robinson has always handled the majority of the rushing snaps for Washington, but now he is getting supremely involved in the passing game with Antonio Gibson injured. His 15 targets in the last two weeks are more than his previous seven games combined. That's led to two weeks of top-12 production for Robinson and he can get there again in this game just based on volume.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WSH)
McLaurin has seen fewer than seven targets just once since Week 3 and now leads the Commanders in seasonal target share. McLaurin leads the NFL in routes run this year and is 12th in deep targets.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jahan Dotson (WR, WSH)
Jahan Dotson's target share has plummeted to just 10% over the last three games. While he is good to break a big play for a touchdown every so often, he isn't consistent enough to be a starter this week against a wicked Dallas secondary.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WSH)
Gibson is coming off of an injury and may not even suit up in this game. Against the Cowboys who are top-five in fewest receiving yards and receiving touchdowns to running backs, I don't see a reason to go here.
Logan Thomas (TE, WSH)
Logan Thomas has one top-10 finish at the position in his last six games and the Cowboys allow the fourth-fewest receptions to the position. With a full slate of games, there are at least 10-12 tight ends I would rather start.
Kirksey’s Thanksgiving Picks
Current Spread: DAL -10.5, TOTAL: 48.5
Picks: WSH +10.5, OVER 48.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks - 8:20 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Actives/Inactives Report for notable injuries:
- Geno Smith (QB, SEA) - Triceps - QUESTIONABLE
- DK Metcalf (WR, SEA) - Toe - QUESTIONABLE
- Kenneth Walker III - (RB, SEA) - Oblique - DOUBTFUL - NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
If you need more evidence as to why you start the best running back in the game on this Thanksgiving slate, consider this. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this year on just the 19th-most yards allowed. Seattle has allowed 5.5 yards per rush over their last three games.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Seattle has allowed only one tight end touchdown this season, but George Kittle is not like other tight ends. He has finished top-3 in half-PPR formats each of the last three weeks, and top-10 in five of his last six games.
George Kittle has back-to-back games with 20+ DFS points scored.
Over the last 3 weeks, the Seahawks allowed the second most points to tight ends.
Last three games versus the Seahawks:
Kittle has had 27 targets and averaged 25.3 points. pic.twitter.com/gGbUoEIR8h— Michael Hauff (@TheFFRealist) November 21, 2023
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Aiyuk now leads the 49ers in target share on the season and has at least six targets in six of his last seven games. In addition to his top-five finish from last week, Aiyuk is first in the NFL in air yards share and second in yards per route run.
DK Metcalf (WR, SEA)
San Francisco has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this year primarily because everyone is trailing them by so many points in the second half. That could be the case here for Seattle, but Metcalf has also separated himself among this receiving corps with 24% of the targets in the last three games. In his last five games, he has one below nine targets.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Purdy has three straight top-12 quarterback finishes and five in his last seven games, so he is inching very close to must-start status each week. The Seahawks have allowed top-12 numbers in pass attempts and passing yards this season and are giving up almost 10 yards per completion this season.
Brock Purdy season ranks
NFL Rank
Pass Rating 115.1 1st
Comp pct 70.2% 1st
TD/Att 6.5% 1st
Yards/Att 9.7 1st
Yards/Comp 13.8 1st pic.twitter.com/EdrEsr7aZ0— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 21, 2023
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Deebo Samuel was eased back in with 56% of snaps in Week 10 but was back to 85% in Week 11 as he is fully recovered from injury. He might take a back seat to Aiyuk, Kittle, and McCaffrey now, but Samuel is still elite after the catch. Samuel is just 94th in routes run this year, but jumps all the way up to 22nd in yards per route run thanks to the 49ers knowing how to get him the ball in space.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SF)
It's been really boom or bust for Lockett over the past two months. Here are his finishes in half-PPR formats over the last six weeks: 22, 50, 12, 53, 8, 36. That takes him out of "no doubt-about-it" starting status, but with just over 23% of the targets coming his way, he is certainly in the WR3/Flex conversation.
Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA)
Walker is likely to miss this game, so it will be the Charbonnet show. He saw 85% of the snaps last week and produced 69 yards on 21 touches. The efficiency might also lag in this game since the 49ers are a top-five team against running backs, but volume should help Charbonnet get to at least RB2 status in Week 12.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Noah Fant and Will Dissly (TEs, SEA)
Both Fant and Dissly have target shares under 6% and San Francisco is the second-best team against tight ends this year. That's all you need to know.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA)
JSN has dropped to just 17% target share for the Seahawks and hasn't finished above WR24 since Week 7. With a full complement of wide receivers available this week, I will be looking elsewhere.
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Coming off a nasty hit and a triceps injury that knocked him out of the game for over a quarter, I'm looking for other options at quarterback instead of throwing Geno out there against the team that allows the third-fewest fantasy points to the position this year. I would take Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, and Jordan Love over him this week.
Kirksey’s Thanksgiving Picks
Current Spread: SF -7, TOTAL: 43.5
Picks: SEA +7, OVER 43.5
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