Super Bowl Odds: Breaking Down The NFL's Remaining Title Contenders

January 23, 2023

Who's going to win the Super Bowl and what are their odds? Joe Nicely's Super Bowl odds and predictions, breaking down the remaining Super Bowl contenders for the 2022 NFL season.

With two rounds of the NFL playoffs now in the books, we are down to the "Final Four". The AFC and NFC conference championship games are on the horizon with Kansas City, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and San Francisco still vying for the Lombardi Trophy. 

All of these teams have proven their mettle over the course of the regular season and throughout the playoffs. Now, just one opponent stands between them and a spot on football's ultimate stage.

In this article, we'll take a look at the Super Bowl-winning odds for each of these squads and break down their chances to slip on a ring in the coming weeks! All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook as of 1/23/23.

Philadelphia Eagles - Odds To Win Super Bowl: +260

• Regular Season Record: 14-3
• How They Got Here: NFC East Champions, First-Round Playoff Bye, Defeated New York Giants 38-7 in Divisional Round
• NFC Conference Championship Opponent: San Francisco 49ers

Why The Eagles Can Win The Super Bowl: A late-season blip aside, this is a squad that's been dominant throughout 2022. Although they dropped two of their last three regular-season games - with Jalen Hurts sidelined in both the losses - the Eagles still finished the year as the NFC East champions and with the top overall seed in the NFC. As a result, the conference goes through the City of Brotherly Love, meaning the Eagles will have home-field advantage against the San Francisco 49ers and rookie Niners quarterback Brock Purdy in the NFC Championship game.

After an opening-round bye, Philly flexed their muscles in a 38-7 beatdown of the New York Giants in the Divisional round of the playoffs. It was a performance that reminded fans just how terrific the Eagles have been this season. Before going down with an injured shoulder in Week 15, Hurts was a legitimate MVP candidate that displayed the ability to both pick apart teams through the air and destroy them with his legs.

Hurts' growth as a quarterback in his third NFL season has been aided tremendously by a draft-night sign and trade deal that brought A.J. Brown to Philly. The former Tennessee Titan has been worth every penny, as Brown recorded career-highs in receptions and receiving yards in 2022 while tying his career-best in TDs. Brown's running mate in the Eagles' receiving corps, former Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, has performed as advertised since joining the professional ranks. Smith has proven to be a dynamic playmaker with game-breaking ability that topped 100-yards receiving in five games during the regular season.

Philadelphia isn't just all offense, either. The Eagles feature a pair of shutdown corners in Darius Slay and James Bradberry that helped the squad finish the season ranked first in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA. While the defensive line did show some lapses at times earlier in the year, the midseason acquisitions of veterans Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh helped sure up the run-stopping unit. Philly finished the regular season ranked fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed per game.

Cincinnati Bengals - Odds To Win Super Bowl: +270

• Regular Season Record: 12-4
• How They Got Here: AFC North Champions, Defeated Baltimore Ravens 27-16 in Wild Card Round, Defeated Buffalo Bills 27-10 in Divisional Round
• AFC Conference Championship Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

Why The Bengals Can Win The Super Bowl: Deep postseason runs are becoming old hat for the Bengals. Selecting Joe Burrow with the top pick of the 2020 NFL Draft has rejuvenated the long-moribund Cincinnati franchise and changed the trajectory of the organization. Burrow led the Bengals to a surprising Super Bowl appearance last season, ultimately losing a 23-20 nailbiter to the Los Angeles Rams.

Cincinnati opened 2022 with a classic "Super Bowl Hangover" by losing their first two games of the season. However, the Bengals battled through the sluggish start – as well as the month-long absence of superstar wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase due to a hip injury – to find truly dominant form and close the regular season with an eight-game winning streak. Including their two playoff victories, they've now won 10 games in a row and face a Kansas City Chiefs team that they defeated in last year's AFC Championship game and again during the regular season this year.

It's hard to overstate just how instrumental Burrow is for this team. Besides being uber-talented physically and finishing 2022 near the top of the NFL in passing yards and TDs, the player that won a National Championship while at LSU instills a calm confidence in his teammates through his play and leadership.

Obviously, Burrow is not a one-man show, as the addition of Ja'Marr Chase in 2021 to an offensive attack that already featured a blossoming receiver in Tee Higgins and a talented running back in Joe Mixon, has paid huge dividends. Chase has quickly proven himself to be an elite offensive force that can change an entire game in one play.

Solid contributions from dependable receiver Tyler Boyd, offseason tight end acquisition Hayden Hurst, and utility back Samaje Perine – as well as a retooled offensive line that continued to gel as the season progressed – helped Cincinnati to average over 26 points and 265 passing yards per game in 2022.

With so much star power on the offensive side of the ball, it's understandable that a Bengals defense that lacks its own name recognition might go overlooked. However, this unit can't be ignored, as they finished the year ranked a rock-solid 11th in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA and have routinely answered the bell in challenging environments, most recently holding Josh Allen and the high-octane Buffalo Bills to just 10 points in a victory in the Divisional round.

Kansas City Chiefs - Odds To Win Super Bowl: +270

• Regular Season Record: 14-3
• How They Got Here: AFC West Champions, First-Round Playoff Bye, Defeated Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 in Divisional Round
• AFC Conference Championship Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

Why The Chiefs Can Win The Super Bowl: While certainly a talented team from top-to-bottom with future HOF coach Andy Reid on the sidelines, this Chiefs squad will go as far as Patrick Mahomes can take them. Unfortunately, Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain in Kansas City's Divisional round win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, which has sent the Chiefs' odds to win the Super Bowl into a freefall.

For the purposes of this discussion, we'll assume that Mahomes is able to suit up against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Conference Championship game, though it's hard to pretend that the likely 2022 NFL MVP will be at 100%. Even at less than full strength, Mahomes is a generational talent that is well on his way to being one of the game's all-time greats. Equipped with elite arm talent and savvy – and with Reid's creative playcalling – Mahomes is capable of leading this high-octane offense to victory over anyone in any game environment.

Although their QB's health is certainly a concern, the Chiefs have earned home-field advantage against Cincinnati in the AFC Championship game in the notoriously-tough confines of Arrowhead Stadium. This is also an extremely experienced Kansas City organization that will be making its fifth consecutive appearance in the AFC Conference Championship game.

In addition to having the superhuman Mahomes under center, this offense boasts another future HOFer in tight end Travis Kelce. A weapon the likes of which we've never truly seen at his position, Kelce once again led all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, and TDs in 2022.

Offseason acquisitions JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been solid if unspectacular, additions to a receiving corps that lost Tyreek Hill via an offseason trade. Speedster Mecole Hardman has sporadically filled the Hill role to a much lesser extent this season and has a chance to return from an extended injury absence against the Bengals, while mid-season trade acquisition Kadarius Toney remains an enigmatic wild card that can electrify when he's able to get on the field.

Despite career-worst production from Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the KC backfield has been a pleasant surprise. Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco has been an effective threat on the ground, while veteran Jerick McKinnon has stayed healthy enough to post his best production in years.

Though certainly less successful, Kansas City's defense is perhaps just as aggressive as their offense. The Chiefs are an attacking squad that's had success getting to opposing quarterbacks. They finished the regular season ranked second in the NFL in sacks and fourth in QB hits.

San Francisco 49ers - Odds To Win Super Bowl: +320

• Regular Season Record: 13-4
• How They Got Here: NFC West Champions, Defeated Seattle Seahawks 41-23 in Wild Card Round, Defeated Dallas Cowboys 19-12 in Divisional Round
• NFC Conference Championship Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

Why The 49ers Can Win The Super Bowl: With head coach Kyle Shanahan's consistently-productive zone-blocking scheme on offense and a ferocious defense that was the NFL's best in 2022, the San Francisco 49ers just seem built for the postseason. The proof is in the pudding, as Shanahan is no stranger to playoff success. In his sixth season in the Bay, he reached a Super Bowl with the Niners in 2019 and the NFC Championship game last year.

Having lost not one but two starting quarterbacks to season-ending injuries this season, 2022 is perhaps Shanahan's finest work, as he and the Niners have now won eight games in a row with unheralded rookie QB Brock Purdy at the helm and 12 straight overall.

The last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy has shredded the infamous "Mr. Irrelevant" moniker to bits by throwing for 1,374 yards and 13 TDs to just four INTs during the regular season. The rookie has looked poised in the pocket while steadily delivering the ball to San Fran's game-breaking tight end George Kittle – whose production has actually improved with Purdy at the helm – as well as their constantly-improving wideout Brandon Aiyuk. San Francisco fans are also breathing a huge sigh of relief, as dynamic receiver Deebo Samuel has returned from an MCL sprain and looked as explosive as ever in the team's Wild Card victory over Seattle.

The Niners swung a midseason blockbuster trade with the Carolina Panthers for dynamic dual-threat running back Christian McCaffrey and the Stanford alum has been as good as advertised since returning to the Bay area. Since making his Niners debut in Week 7, CMC posted 1,210 all-purpose yards and 11 total TDs for San Fran in the regular season and 193 scrimmage yards and two scores across their two playoff games. McCaffrey has recently been spelled by Elijah Mitchell, a back that's been consistently picking up chunk gains for this rushing attacked and whose value shouldn't be underestimated.

As good as this Niners offense has been, their defense has been even better. Led by defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans - who will likely be a head coach as soon as the team's season ends - San Fran has rolled out a savage unit in 2022. This group finished the season first in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA, allowing the fewest average points and total yards per game in the league. Though susceptible at times, this Niners secondary led the NFL with 20 interceptions, while all-world Edge rusher Nick Bosa led the defense to 44 team sacks in 2022.

Traveling to Philadelphia for a Conference Championship game with a rookie quarterback is no easy task. Still, the Niners possess tons of postseason experience, a proven playoff scheme, and a deep roster that gives them explosive players all over the field.

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