RADIO
With most fantasy leagues heading into their final week of the regular season, there's a fairly good chance your lineups are pretty concrete. You know which players you can rely on and who is better-served on your bench. Yet even this late in the season there are still some running backs who are throwing up some head scratching duds.
The players you'll see on this week's Warning Signals are, for the most part, the lead dog on their respective teams. Workload shouldn't be an issue for the three backs listed, so this is more about some questionable showings over their last few outings. More importantly, all of them are players you should be able to rely on with ease at this point in the season. Between the sheer volume they're expected to receiver combined with their offenses and talent, fantasy production shouldn't really be in question.
I should also point out that heading into Week 13 there aren't really that many high-end studs that have been disappointing lately. Sure Todd Gurley had a down game in a blowout loss against the Bengals and Devonta Freeman is banged-up, but it's not like these are irreparable issues. We should be more concerned about the RB2s that could make or break your playoff matchups in the coming weeks so those are the guys we'll be focusing on going forward.
Running Backs Sending Out Warning Signals
Mark Ingram – RB, CIN
At first glance Mark Ingram's numbers aren't all that terrible. Sure he hasn't topped 100 yards in a while, but he also hasn't gone below 50 either. The much more glaring weakness in Ingram's stat line has been his massive touchdown drought. When he was out there trotting along for 50+ yards against the Buccaneers and Panthers in Weeks 2 and 3, you were treated to a touchdown to salvage his fantasy day. Now, Ingram can't even sniff the endzone. In fact, he hasn't scored since Week 7 against the Indianapolis Colts--that's four straight games without a touchdown. Not good for a guy who can't crack 100 total yards either.
Touchdowns in general can be rather fluky but you can usually handle a dry spell while the yardage is making up for it. Unfortunately for Ingram, his low yardage totals are bringing his overall numbers down on top of it all. With both running backs and receivers alike, volume can make up for a lack of scoring and vice versa--you can deal with one problem if the other is compensating for it. That isn't happening with Ingram right now so I'd be concerned about him getting you through the fantasy playoffs.
With tough matchups against the Panthers and Buccaneers in the next two weeks, it's not like you should be expecting some big turnaround any time soon either. I understand that it's hard to straight-up bench a guy like Ingram, especially considering how effective he's shown he can be. What you can do, however, is try to take advantage of any league that has a late trade deadline and try to deal him before the playoffs arrive. It'd be a tough move for sure, and your rules might not allow it, but it's worth considering.
In short, you're not going to bench Ingram based solely on his lack of touchdowns. He's still the top running back in New Orleans regardless. Just be wary about the "set it and forget it" mentality that comes along with owning a starting running back that isn't actually racking up fantasy points lately.
Latavius Murray – RB, OAK
I'm fairly certain we've spoken about Latavius Murray in the past so forgive me for bringing up a player from earlier this year. Murray is dealing with somewhat of a slump in recent weeks, yet I'm not exactly in panic mode just yet. His overall rushing totals aren't spectacular as he's only exceeded 100 yards once this season and was held to under 50 yards in two out of his last three games. I suppose that last bit of info might invoke thoughts of panic, but bear with me.
Given how desolate the running back position has been as a whole, Latavius Murray hasn't really been all that disappointing by comparison. He's been helped by the sheer number of carries he's racked up since the start of the year. In fact, Murray's lowest number of rushing attempts came in Week 1 when he ran it 11 times. He's in a very underrated offense that mixes it up both through the air and on the ground, so his workload fluctuates, but not enough to warrant worrying about.
What I'm trying to say is that it may seem like he hasn't been all that productive as of late but you have to stick with him and reap the benefits if and when they do arrive. I'm fairly confident that Murray is talented enough to contribute as a mid-range RB2 and that's exactly what you drafted him as. I prefer him over the likes of Buck Allen, T.J. Yeldon and any of the backs in either Green Bay or Denver. His usage is just too consistent.
LeGarrette Blount – RB, NE
Remember what I said earlier about how all three of the players on this week's list were the lead back on their respective teams? Blount is arguably the exception to the rule. If LeGarrette Blount played for any other franchise in the NFL, we'd all be throwing out remotes at the TV wondering why they won't feed him the ball more. Yet because he plays for the New England Patriots, we're all perfectly content (or at least I am, and I'd imagine other fantasy analysts are as well) chuckling at the idea that we actually thought we had Bill Belichick figured out.
The Patriots are the type of team that will rotate players in and out of their lineup to the point where it becomes infuriating to figure out from a fantasy perspective, particularly as it pertains to the ground game. With Dion Lewis lost for the year, the expectation was that Blount would slide right into a higher workload while James White handled a little more of the pass-catching duties. Instead, Blount hasn't seen any sort of significant increase in touches and isn't really doing much with them either. Unfortunately for us fantasy owners, the Patriots aren't going to provide us with any sort of clarity in regard to their offensive philosophy so the best we could hope for is that Blount falls into the endzone in order to salvage his fantasy outings.
At some point or another, injuries do catch up to everyone. With Rob Gronkowski now lost for at least a week or two, conventional wisdom would imply that New England would lean a little more on the ground game. Sadly, Bill Belichick's Pats are anything but conventional, so good luck hitching yourself to that train of thought.
Updates From Last Week
Lamar Miller – RB, MIA
I'm not really sure what on Earth happened to Lamar Miller in Sunday's loss against the New York Jets, but somehow the dude ended up with just five carries for two--count 'em TWO--rushing yards. Last week I had said that I was looking ahead to Miller's upcoming schedule in the fantasy playoffs for some more breakout games and I'm still standing by that statement. The Giants, Chargers, and Colts are ripe for the picking come playoff time. Throw in yet another coaching change with the firing of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and we could have ourselves a repeat of what we saw earlier in the season when the Dolphins became reinvigorated offensively. It's said that new OC Zac Taylor wants to reemphasize the run so hopefully that starts to take shape rather quickly.
Frank Gore – RB, IND
If you read last week's column you'd remember that I called for benching Frank Gore in his next two outings against the Buccaneers and Steelers. As it stands I'm one-for-one, with Gore ending Sunday's matchup against Tampa Bay with just 24 yards on 19 carries. For those of you keeping track at home, that averages out to 1.3 yards per carry. I don't toot my own horn all that often but...toot toot. I would keep Gore on the pine in Pittsburgh, although with the news that Ahmad Bradshaw is headed to the IR I'm not really sure who the Colts have left to eat into his workload. Still, if you'd like some reassurance as to why you shouldn't depend on Gore just yet, look no further than his own head coach Chuck Pagano who stated "he's beat to crap." Doesn't really sound like a guy I'm willing to rely on in a win-or-go home scenario right now.
DeMarco Murray – RB, PHI
I can promise you this will be the very last time we discuss DeMarco Murray. Considering how terrible the Eagles were on Thanksgiving day you might think I'm willing to cut Murray some slack, but the fact of the matter is analyzing Philly's fantasy relevance is exhausting. Every week it's the same old song-and-dance with them; someone has a decent day while someone else is dreadful. That's not going to change in Week 13. Take what you can get out of DeMarco at this point and be grateful with whatever it is you end up with. This is one hell of a roller coaster ride that isn't going away anytime soon.
