Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

NFL DFS GPP Stacks for FanDuel, DraftKings (Conference Championship Round)


Hey there RotoBallers! With the end of the NFL regular season, there aren't any season-long league concerns left for us fantasy gamers. That makes the Conference Championship Round of the playoffs a perfect time to focus on making some DFS lineups. Since there are only four teams in action on the slate, I will be altering the format that this article has followed up until this point. Instead of picking out top stacks, I will touch on the passing game matchup for each of the four teams left with the teams listed in order of my stacking preference.

The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize the number of points scored. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.

This article will center on games across both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each stack will reference two pass-catchers along with their quarterback. The pass-catchers will be listed in preferential order but sometimes a three-man stack is in play as full-game stacks led to several wins in the Milly Maker in 2018. If you feel strongly about how an offense will perform in a given week then consider loading up on several offensive players from that offense. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

Conference Championship Round DFS Tournament Stacks

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans

The Chiefs are my (and probably everyone else's) favorite stack of the weekend. Not only do they possess the most explosive passing offense left on the slate but they also are the only team to draw a plus matchup in the passing game. While the defenses of the Packers, 49ers, and these very Chiefs have been effective at shutting down enemy passing attacks this season, the Titans struggled in that area. Tennessee finished with a pass defense that ranked 21st in the league in DVOA. The next worst defense against the pass? The Packers with a pass-defense DVOA of 10th.

We saw last week just how dangerous the Chiefs can be on offense. They, of course, got down 21-0 in the first quarter before roaring back with a 28-point second quarter and finishing with 51 points to send the Texans home. Patrick Mahomes should have little trouble moving the ball against a Tennessee defense that allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.

Kansas City's top two pass catchers in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are both in play as top options on the slate. That being said, both will come with very high ownership rates. With that in mind, consider getting some exposure to Sammy Watkins this weekend. Watkins draws the most favorable matchup of the Chiefs as he will run the majority of his routes against Tennessee slot corner Logan Ryan. Ryan earned the lowest Pro Football Focus grade of the Titans' top-three corners and allowed 0.31 fantasy points per route covered in the regular season. Watkins also finally showed some signs of life last week as he finished with 76 yards on two catches.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

After being a disaster on defense the past few seasons, the Chiefs really shored up their secondary this year. Kansas City finished the season ranked sixth in pass-defense DVOA and allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Their run defense, however, remains a spot that can be attacked. The only problem here is the high-powered KC offense can rack up points in a hurry. That can make it difficult for their opposition to #establishtherun. That doesn't mean the Titans won't try, however. Game script will be important here. If the Titans can jump out to an early lead, expect to see a heavy dose of postseason star Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill has attempted just 29 passes in his team's surprising two-game run to the Conference Championship Round. Of course, the Texans thought they built up a safe lead last week just to see the Chiefs go nuclear in the second quarter. I still prefer Tennessee's passing offense to either Green Bay or the 49ers considering the lockdown pass defenses that those two teams possess and the strong possibility that Tennessee will be playing from behind.

Tannehill has been extremely efficient despite averaging just 14.5 pass attempts through his two playoff contests. He has accounted for four touchdowns during that span (three passing, one rushing). I think the Titans will be forced to pass more frequently against a Chiefs offense that is much better equipped to put points on the board than either the Patriots or the Texans.

A.J. Brown has been an afterthought in the Tennessee postseason run, thanks to a run-heavy approach. He still remains the Titans' top threat in the passing game and the team's best bet to move the ball through the air in what should be a high-scoring game. Kansas City's defense has been stingy against the pass this season but Brown draws an extremely favorable matchup against right corner Bashaud Breeland. Breeland runs a plodding 4.62 40-yard dash and gives up two inches and 31 pounds to Brown. Brown's two-game slow stretch could cause fantasy gamers to look past him on Sunday.

Jonnu Smith is also in play if you want to roll out a three-man Tennessee stack. If there is one weakness in a stout KC pass defense, it is their ability to defend the tight end. While they allowed the second-fewest wide receiver points during the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Smith has some touchdown upside for the Titans this weekend.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers were one of the most dominant pass defenses in the league during the regular season. Their pass defense finished the year ranked No. 2 in DVOA behind only the Patriots. The run defense wasn't too shabby, either, ranking 11th. The 49ers showed few if any cracks in the regular season. They were "worst" against wide receivers, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. They experienced a rough stretch near the end of the season but that can be attributed to multiple injuries in their secondary. Their starters are healthy now and limited the Vikings to 10 points on just 147 total yards in the Divisional Round.

With all that being said, you might be asking why the Packers offense is listed above San Francisco's. It is close between the two units but the Packers do have a few positive factors working in their favor. First, Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer. While he hasn't been playing up to his normal level this season, he is still a dangerous player and it wouldn't be a total surprise if he scraped together a multi-touchdown game on Sunday. Second, the Packers are 7.5-point underdogs. If the game goes as expected, look for them to fall behind and have to pass frequently in the second half to catch up.

Davante Adams is coming off a dominant two-touchdown outing against Seattle and he draws a better matchup than you might think. The 49ers rarely shadowed during the season, with Richard Sherman lining up on the left side of the formation on 98% of the snaps. Adams ran just 33% of his routes against the opposition's left corner, meaning he should avoid the lockdown defender on roughly 1/3 of his routes. When Adams lines up on the left side, he will see coverage from weak-link corner Ahkello Witherspoon, who graded out at a 63.5 over at PFF and allowed 0.34 fantasy points per route covered. Both of those marks are the worst of the three projected starting corners for San Francisco.

I'm not crazy about rolling out a three-man stack against the 49ers but if you feel the urge, Aaron Jones would probably be the best choice. Allen Lazard will see primary coverage from Sherman, which should neutralize him while Geronimo Allison has been a ghost for much of the season, having not seen more than four targets in a game since Week 7 and drawing just one last week. San Francisco was effective against running backs in the passing game throughout 2019. They didn't allow a running back touchdown through the air with the biggest game actually coming from Green Bay running back Jamaal Williams in Week 12. Williams went for 35 yards on seven catches. I'd expect the Packers to lean more heavily on their stud RB in Jones instead of the inferior talent in Williams in attempts to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.

 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

The 49ers prefer to run the ball while the Green Bay defense operated as a run-funnel unit during the past season. While the Packers shut down the pass (10th in DVOA, fourth-fewest FPPG), their run defense was just 23rd in the league in DVOA and served up the 10th-most fantasy points per game. This setup plays directly into San Francisco's wheelhouse as a run-first offense. With a positive game script for the 49ers, we could see very few pass attempts on Sunday. San Francisco is installed as 7.5-point home favorites, leaving their passing attack as my least favorite of the potential stacking options.

Jimmy Garoppolo has shown some upside this season but his ceiling is normally limited by a run-first offensive philosophy. The most likely outcome of this game is the dominant 49ers Defense shuts down the Green Bay offense while San Francisco racks up large chunks of yards on the ground. I project Garoppolo to throw the fewest pass attempts of the four quarterbacks on this slate.

If stacking the 49ers passing attack, George Kittle is an easy choice. The stud tight end is the preferred option in the passing game and draws a much better matchup than his wide receiver teammates. Of the San Francisco wide receivers, I am looking at Deebo Samuel over Emmanuel Sanders for a second-straight week. While Sanders will mostly tangle with Jaire Alexander, Samuel draws the best matchup against Kevin King. King graded out at a 62.3 over at PFF in the regular season.

 

Thanks for reading, go win some money this weekend RotoBallers!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




Today’s Most Viewed Players

More Recent Articles

 

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Aaron Civale

With Mike Clevinger sidelined to start the year and Corey Kluber off to Texas, the Indians will rely on the emergence of Aaron Civale to bolster their typically-formidable rotation. Civale impressed in his rookie season with 10 starts, 57.2 innings pitched (IP), a 3-4 win-loss record, 2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 46 Ks. Due to the... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Didi Gregorius

The Philadelphia Phillies finished 2019 with a record of 81-81, which was only good enough for a fourth-place finish in the NL East. They have since added the likes of Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius to improve their chances of a division title in 2020. They have also brought in highly-touted manager Joe Girardi to... Read More


2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Shortstop

If you're keeping up with the Keeper Value Rankings, you know we've already covered First Base, Second Base, and Third Base. Today, we will address Shortstop. These rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based... Read More


ADP Showdown: Anthony Rendon vs. Rafael Devers

The first two rounds in your fantasy draft can be challenging because each available player is tremendously skilled with significant upside. Every pick looks desirable, so it’s important to try to determine which player has a greater likelihood of producing superior fantasy production. This can be accomplished by examining overall production and team context.  This... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More


MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. Stay on top of all closer depth... Read More


Industry Expert Mock: ADP Surprises

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut break down the recent RotoBaller Friends & Family industry mock draft to see how the experts fared and look at some of the most surprising picks, for better or worse. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and... Read More


Fantasy Insider Angles - Thor, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and More

Success in baseball isn’t always just about pure numbers. For those who play the game and are inside the clubhouse, it’s also about creating the right chemistry and environment. As the New York Mets opened spring training this season, there was a fresh air of optimism around the team. It also seemed to extend to... Read More


Points League Ranker Tool - NFBC

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Brought to you by RotoBaller's Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds), this Points Rankings tool uses RotoBaller's 2020 MLB projections to build out custom rankings for NFBC Points Leagues. The tool uses the default NFBC scoring settings. All fantasy baseball platforms have different scoring settings for their points leagues.... Read More


Points League Ranker Tool - CBS

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Brought to you by RotoBaller's Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds), this Points Rankings tool uses RotoBaller's 2020 MLB projections to build out custom rankings for CBS Points Leagues. The tool uses the default CBS scoring settings. All fantasy baseball platforms have different scoring settings for their points leagues.... Read More


Points League Ranker Tool - Fantrax

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Brought to you by RotoBaller's Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds), this Points Rankings tool uses RotoBaller's 2020 MLB projections to build out custom rankings for Fantrax Points Leagues. The tool uses the default Fantrax scoring settings. All fantasy baseball platforms have different scoring settings for their points leagues.... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Expected Stats

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis – Kris Bryant vs Josh Donaldson

Spring training is officially underway, which means baseball season is finally upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position decisions. Third base is a fairly deep position... Read More


Platoon Watch: Part-Time Infielders Worth Rostering

It seems that platooning in major league baseball has become increasingly popular every year. This strategy benefits teams by protecting aging veterans from injury and by getting the most advantageous lineup versus a specifically-handed pitcher. While platooning is smart for major league clubs, it gives us fantasy managers headaches when our player rides the pine... Read More


Bases Loaded Podcast: Happy TGFBI Day! - TGFBI Strategy & Day 1 ADP Data

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) isjoined by Sp Streamer and Zach Braff and they discuss all things happening in their TGFBI drafts. Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be... Read More


More Recent Articles

 

XFL Week 3 - Opportunity Risers and Fallers

I'm afraid some folks out there won't like this because they never wanted the XFL to establish itself, but we're already at a point when we can't count the number of games players with the fingers of our hands! That's right, it's been three weeks and 12 matches already. We previously looked at target risers... Read More


NFL Draft Combine Preview: Wide Receivers

The diva position of the NFL has seen an influx of playmakers enter the league in recent years. With so many teams moving to spread offenses, gone are the days of the third year breakout formula that many fantasy owners were used to. Opportunities are growing in these passing attacks each season, meaning we see... Read More


XFL Week 3 - Target Risers and Fallers

I'm afraid some folks out there won't like this because they never wanted the XFL to establish itself, but we're already at a point when we can't count the number of games players with the fingers of our hands! That's right, it's been three weeks and 12 games already. With three weeks already in the... Read More


Biggest Surprises of 2019 - Quarterback

The quarterback position in fantasy football is always one that either gets seriously overvalued, or seriously underrated. We all saw just how much of a difference maker someone like Lamar Jackson could be this year, or Patrick Mahomes last year. This year, we saw Mahomes get drafted extremely early, and while he was still good,... Read More


What Went Wrong with Odell Beckham Jr?

"What Went Wrong?" is a Rotoballer offseason series exploring fantasy players who underperformed their ADP. We'll explain why they fell below expectations and try to determine what it means for their value going forward. Finally free from the decrepit arm of Eli Manning and away from the torturous New York media, Odell Beckham Jr was... Read More


NFL Draft Combine Preview: Running Backs

What always seems to be the highlight for fantasy owners as preparations begin before the NFL Draft is the running back position. Owners clamor to get their hands on the new blood in the league as it has recently shown that it can pay off big time. We've seen the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Christian... Read More


RB Opportunity Share and Impact (AFC East & North): 2019 Review

We wrap up with our coverage of each of the eight NFL divisions, discussing the teams that are part of them and the running backs that were part of those teams in 2019. To present those teams and players I use a set of easy-to-read charts: treemaps. The graphics will hold all of the players... Read More


Dynasty Price Check - Adam Thielen

Many of you have already begun planning and building your 2020 rosters. This includes best ball owners who have assembled teams in that popular format. A number of owners in redraft leagues are inspecting the early rankings, while those of you who are involved in dynasty leagues have continued your process of relentless roster evaluation. As... Read More


XFL DFS Lineup Picks For Week 3: The Checkdown

Check out this week's XFL fantasy football preview including game breakdowns, player analysis, DFS lineup picks and more for week three of the 2020 XFL season. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune... Read More


D.J. Chark - Dynasty Price Check

Are you ready for some football? If you are in a dynasty fantasy football league, you most certainly are! The time between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft is a prime opportunity for hardcore owners to evaluate their current team and prepare for their upcoming rookie drafts. We've already looked at young players like Courtland... Read More


RB Opportunity Share and Impact (NFC South & West): 2019 Review

We roll on with coverage of each of the eight NFL divisions, discussing the teams that are part of them and the running backs that were part of those teams in 2019. To present those teams and players I use a set of easy-to-read charts: treemaps. The graphics will hold all of the players of... Read More


Biggest ADP Surprises: Early Fantasy Football Mock Draft

RotoBaller fantasy football analysts Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano review the draft board from RotoBaller's 2020 Way Too Early Mock fantasy football draft. They look at early ADP, reaches, values, and surprises throughout the first 10 rounds. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us... Read More