RADIO
Hey there RotoBallers! With the end of the NFL regular season, there aren't any season-long league concerns left for us fantasy gamers. That makes the Conference Championship Round of the playoffs a perfect time to focus on making some DFS lineups. Since there are only four teams in action on the slate, I will be altering the format that this article has followed up until this point. Instead of picking out top stacks, I will touch on the passing game matchup for each of the four teams left with the teams listed in order of my stacking preference.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize the number of points scored. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
This article will center on games across both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each stack will reference two pass-catchers along with their quarterback. The pass-catchers will be listed in preferential order but sometimes a three-man stack is in play as full-game stacks led to several wins in the Milly Maker in 2018. If you feel strongly about how an offense will perform in a given week then consider loading up on several offensive players from that offense. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
- QB Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
- WR Tyreek Hill ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
- TE Travis Kelce ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
The Chiefs are my (and probably everyone else's) favorite stack of the weekend. Not only do they possess the most explosive passing offense left on the slate but they also are the only team to draw a plus matchup in the passing game. While the defenses of the Packers, 49ers, and these very Chiefs have been effective at shutting down enemy passing attacks this season, the Titans struggled in that area. Tennessee finished with a pass defense that ranked 21st in the league in DVOA. The next worst defense against the pass? The Packers with a pass-defense DVOA of 10th.
We saw last week just how dangerous the Chiefs can be on offense. They, of course, got down 21-0 in the first quarter before roaring back with a 28-point second quarter and finishing with 51 points to send the Texans home. Patrick Mahomes should have little trouble moving the ball against a Tennessee defense that allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.
Kansas City's top two pass catchers in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are both in play as top options on the slate. That being said, both will come with very high ownership rates. With that in mind, consider getting some exposure to Sammy Watkins this weekend. Watkins draws the most favorable matchup of the Chiefs as he will run the majority of his routes against Tennessee slot corner Logan Ryan. Ryan earned the lowest Pro Football Focus grade of the Titans' top-three corners and allowed 0.31 fantasy points per route covered in the regular season. Watkins also finally showed some signs of life last week as he finished with 76 yards on two catches.
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
- QB Ryan Tannehill ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- WR A.J. Brown ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
- TE Jonnu Smith ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
After being a disaster on defense the past few seasons, the Chiefs really shored up their secondary this year. Kansas City finished the season ranked sixth in pass-defense DVOA and allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Their run defense, however, remains a spot that can be attacked. The only problem here is the high-powered KC offense can rack up points in a hurry. That can make it difficult for their opposition to #establishtherun. That doesn't mean the Titans won't try, however. Game script will be important here. If the Titans can jump out to an early lead, expect to see a heavy dose of postseason star Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill has attempted just 29 passes in his team's surprising two-game run to the Conference Championship Round. Of course, the Texans thought they built up a safe lead last week just to see the Chiefs go nuclear in the second quarter. I still prefer Tennessee's passing offense to either Green Bay or the 49ers considering the lockdown pass defenses that those two teams possess and the strong possibility that Tennessee will be playing from behind.
Tannehill has been extremely efficient despite averaging just 14.5 pass attempts through his two playoff contests. He has accounted for four touchdowns during that span (three passing, one rushing). I think the Titans will be forced to pass more frequently against a Chiefs offense that is much better equipped to put points on the board than either the Patriots or the Texans.
A.J. Brown has been an afterthought in the Tennessee postseason run, thanks to a run-heavy approach. He still remains the Titans' top threat in the passing game and the team's best bet to move the ball through the air in what should be a high-scoring game. Kansas City's defense has been stingy against the pass this season but Brown draws an extremely favorable matchup against right corner Bashaud Breeland. Breeland runs a plodding 4.62 40-yard dash and gives up two inches and 31 pounds to Brown. Brown's two-game slow stretch could cause fantasy gamers to look past him on Sunday.
Jonnu Smith is also in play if you want to roll out a three-man Tennessee stack. If there is one weakness in a stout KC pass defense, it is their ability to defend the tight end. While they allowed the second-fewest wide receiver points during the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Smith has some touchdown upside for the Titans this weekend.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
- QB Aaron Rodgers ($6,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
- WR Davante Adams ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
- RB Aaron Jones ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
The 49ers were one of the most dominant pass defenses in the league during the regular season. Their pass defense finished the year ranked No. 2 in DVOA behind only the Patriots. The run defense wasn't too shabby, either, ranking 11th. The 49ers showed few if any cracks in the regular season. They were "worst" against wide receivers, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. They experienced a rough stretch near the end of the season but that can be attributed to multiple injuries in their secondary. Their starters are healthy now and limited the Vikings to 10 points on just 147 total yards in the Divisional Round.
With all that being said, you might be asking why the Packers offense is listed above San Francisco's. It is close between the two units but the Packers do have a few positive factors working in their favor. First, Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer. While he hasn't been playing up to his normal level this season, he is still a dangerous player and it wouldn't be a total surprise if he scraped together a multi-touchdown game on Sunday. Second, the Packers are 7.5-point underdogs. If the game goes as expected, look for them to fall behind and have to pass frequently in the second half to catch up.
Davante Adams is coming off a dominant two-touchdown outing against Seattle and he draws a better matchup than you might think. The 49ers rarely shadowed during the season, with Richard Sherman lining up on the left side of the formation on 98% of the snaps. Adams ran just 33% of his routes against the opposition's left corner, meaning he should avoid the lockdown defender on roughly 1/3 of his routes. When Adams lines up on the left side, he will see coverage from weak-link corner Ahkello Witherspoon, who graded out at a 63.5 over at PFF and allowed 0.34 fantasy points per route covered. Both of those marks are the worst of the three projected starting corners for San Francisco.
I'm not crazy about rolling out a three-man stack against the 49ers but if you feel the urge, Aaron Jones would probably be the best choice. Allen Lazard will see primary coverage from Sherman, which should neutralize him while Geronimo Allison has been a ghost for much of the season, having not seen more than four targets in a game since Week 7 and drawing just one last week. San Francisco was effective against running backs in the passing game throughout 2019. They didn't allow a running back touchdown through the air with the biggest game actually coming from Green Bay running back Jamaal Williams in Week 12. Williams went for 35 yards on seven catches. I'd expect the Packers to lean more heavily on their stud RB in Jones instead of the inferior talent in Williams in attempts to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- TE George Kittle ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
- WR Deebo Samuel ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The 49ers prefer to run the ball while the Green Bay defense operated as a run-funnel unit during the past season. While the Packers shut down the pass (10th in DVOA, fourth-fewest FPPG), their run defense was just 23rd in the league in DVOA and served up the 10th-most fantasy points per game. This setup plays directly into San Francisco's wheelhouse as a run-first offense. With a positive game script for the 49ers, we could see very few pass attempts on Sunday. San Francisco is installed as 7.5-point home favorites, leaving their passing attack as my least favorite of the potential stacking options.
Jimmy Garoppolo has shown some upside this season but his ceiling is normally limited by a run-first offensive philosophy. The most likely outcome of this game is the dominant 49ers Defense shuts down the Green Bay offense while San Francisco racks up large chunks of yards on the ground. I project Garoppolo to throw the fewest pass attempts of the four quarterbacks on this slate.
If stacking the 49ers passing attack, George Kittle is an easy choice. The stud tight end is the preferred option in the passing game and draws a much better matchup than his wide receiver teammates. Of the San Francisco wide receivers, I am looking at Deebo Samuel over Emmanuel Sanders for a second-straight week. While Sanders will mostly tangle with Jaire Alexander, Samuel draws the best matchup against Kevin King. King graded out at a 62.3 over at PFF in the regular season.
Thanks for reading, go win some money this weekend RotoBallers!
