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Detroit Lions running back Kerryon Johnson now has competition for touches with rookie RB D'Andre Swift. Does this make him a player to sell in dynasty leagues? Aaron Schillinger breaks down his fantasy football value to decide if he is a sell, buy-low, or hold for 2020.
During this past offseason, one player that I had been looking to actively buy in dynasty leagues is Kerryon Johnson in Detroit. Heading into his second season in the NFL, Johnson was someone that I was very high on and was looking at as a potential breakout candidate. Unfortunately, that was not the case, as Johnson’s season once again was cut short thanks to injury.
It was disappointing to see him miss time again after he started the season with a couple of 20+ carry games after he didn’t see any games with 20 or more carries in his rookie campaign in 2018. The most he saw in his 10 rookie games was three contests of 15 or more carries. This presented a potential buy-low situation for a talented back who just needed to stay on the field.
With the 2020 NFL Draft in the books, the price tag for Kerryon Johnson has taken a drastic change though. The Detroit Lions selected D'Andre Swift out of Georgia, 35th overall, with the third pick of the second round. Does this mean it's time to jump ship on Johnson or is the price tag cheap enough to make him worth acquiring?
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The Lions Backfield
I started this article before the 2020 NFL Draft took place and things changed very quickly. Many owners are going to totally avoid Johnson and his value is lower now than it has ever been. This year, the backfield will be run by Swift and Johnson, with a little bit of Bo Scarbrough sprinkled in. Swift is clearly the more talented running back, and it really isn't close.
The Lions have been known for totally ruining running backs, especially from a fantasy perspective. If there's one running back that I think can break that mold, it's Swift. He was my top-rated rookie running back prior to the NFL Draft, but some landing spots have moved him down just a bit. Not much, but enough that I'd definitely take a few other running backs before him in dynasty rookie drafts such as Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. With Swift likely leading this backfield in the future, Johnson will be quickly forgotten about, but should still get involved some.
The Talent
The talent has never been the issue for Johnson and his success in the NFL, it’s simply been his health. Coming into the league, he was a highly-touted rookie prospect with some comparisons regarding his patience and explosiveness being similar to Le’Veon Bell. Obviously, any comparison to someone like Bell seems like a reach, but the patience behind the line of scrimmage is really where I saw this the most. The only concern that I had with Johnson as a rookie was that his pass-catching production might not be overly impressive. He’s shown plenty of promise in the passing game and his efficiency has been great when he gets the targets.
We've seen glimpses of what Johnson can do when he's healthy and treated like a featured back. The talent isn't the issue; the biggest question mark surrounding his future is his health and the way the Lions will choose to use him. If he were the featured back, he'd be great and a very solid producer for fantasy purposes. If he ends up splitting carries or the Lions just don't want to give anyone a heavy workload of 15+ touches per week, he's going to be an RB2 at best for fantasy, likely worse.
Production
In 2018, Johnson finished the season with 5.4 YPC, which was good for second in the NFL, behind only Aaron Jones. He also finished the season with 854 total yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns in his first 10 games, before he was done for the season with his knee injury. He’s extremely talented in the passing game, which is a huge boost to his ceiling. In his rookie campaign, he caught 34 of 39 passes and had a solid YPC of 5.4. His YPC did see a drop in 2019 with 3.6 on the season, but he obviously didn’t play in many games and faced a few solid rushing defenses like the Eagles, Vikings, and Cardinals.
Dynasty Price Check
There’s definitely some concern that comes with someone like Johnson after his first two seasons being riddled by injuries. The selection of Swift puts another dent in his value, which is reflected by his current ADP in FFPC leagues.
At this point in time, so many dynasty owners are down on him that the price tag is definitely worth the upside in my opinion. With the hype surrounding Swift, which is definitely warranted, I'd use this time to grab Johnson for super cheap. Johnson is still a young and talented running back, despite a rough start in his career due to injuries. If he ends up getting traded or this backfield turns into a committee with Johnson still having a defined role, he will likely never have a cheaper price tag than he does right now.
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