RADIO
Former Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt is in limbo heading into the 2019 NFL season, leaving dynasty football owners with many questions. Dom Petrillo advises how to handle Hunt in dynasty if you are looking to buy or sell.
To start off, I am going to make it clear that this article is about the dynasty value of Kareem Hunt not knowing in any definitive way what the future holds for his NFL career. This is not going to opine on the legal aspects or moral aspects of what transpired with him recently.
No matter my, or anyone else’s feelings on what occurred, this is a fantasy football platform. Real life is real life, and while this game is important to a lot of us, including me as it has been a blessing in my darkest hours over the past six years of my personal battles, it is just what I said. A game. No more and no less.
You may be of the mindset of never having him on your team again to his actions, or you may be looking at the game and say it is a good buy-low opportunity. For our purposes here, we are going to look at what kind of value you can get for Hunt if you want to sell him or what you can possibly get him for if you are angling to acquire him for the future.
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Assessing Hunt in Dynasty
Looking back to the first season and a half of his career, Kareem Hunt started with an All-Pro season in which he became the third rookie in a row to lead the league in rushing. In 2017, he gained 1,327 yards and eight touchdowns on 272 rushes while compiling another 455 yards and three touchdowns catching 53 of 63 targets in the passing game for the Kansas City Chiefs. These numbers are incredible for any player, let alone a player who was not going to even be the starter until the preseason injury to Spencer Ware put him on the shelf for the entire season, thereby making way for the durable and talented back from Toledo.
After his breakout as a rookie, experts were mixed on whether Hunt could repeat in 2018 or if he would suffer a sophomore slump seen by many others. After the first couple weeks, it looked like a slump might have arrived, but he finally got into things and was having another good season. In 11 games before his release, Hunt had 181 rushes for 824 yards and seven touchdowns out of the backfield and added 378 yards and seven more touchdowns while catching 26 of his 35 targets.
Looking at the numbers over another full season, Hunt would have finished this season with 1,198 rushing yards on 263 carries and about nine rushing touchdowns. Add to this his pass-catching pace of 37 receptions for 549 yards and another 18 touchdowns. These numbers would be another elite season with more touchdowns in 18 than he had as a rookie 11 with the combined yardage numbers being nearly identical at 1,782 yards in 2017 compared to his pace of 1,747 yards in 2018.
Doing this will Alex Smith at quarterback last season was easy, so to speak, as he is the check-down master and does not consistently throw the ball deep. But this season, with Patrick Mahomes, a player who became only the second player in the NFL since 2009 to throw a ball 60 yards in the air on a pass, is more impressive. As a running back, the deep pass is not your forte and with Tyrek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce on the roster the prevailing thought was Hunt may lose a lot of work in the pass game. While his target pace and his receptions have dropped, his yards per reception average has gone from 8.2 to over 14.5, making the catches he does have more impactful as defenses are not able to concentrate on stopping him. Now that we have seen the numbers, let us look at what may happen with him after he comes off the commissioner’s exempt list and what will most likely be a six-game suspension.
At 23 years of age, he is still young enough to make an impact for a team much in the way Josh Gordon has for the Patriots after all of his missed time. If Hunt gets his act together and really works hard at keeping on the straight and narrow, he has all the talent to be a top-10 running back in the NFL for years to come. If he goes to a team with a solid locker room culture, a team like the Eagles or Patriots, he could be a star again. If he ends up going to a toxic environment like the Raiders or Jets, he is going to have a much harder time turning things around in his career.
Andy Reid did wonders with him, as he does with many running backs and quarterbacks. From Duce Staley to Jamal Charles to Spencer Ware, Reid can get the best out of a running back at the position. He is known for using a workhorse whenever possible and this shows off the best of his players. A team looking to get hunt will most likely want to use him in this way again, and a team like the Eagles with Reid disciple Doug Pederson at head coach could do just this as they don’t have another back on the roster to challenge him for carries on a game to game basis.
With all of these facts and figures being said, all we really care about is what type of risk to take on Kareem Hunt. If I were going after him, I would not give up the farm for him as his future is very uncertain, but if you can get him for .50 on the dollar or even .75 on the dollar, I would do it. If it cost me a first round pick in 2019 or maybe a decent starter and a later round pick, he is surely worth the gamble. If the owner whether it be you or someone else is holding out for his preseason value, you will and should have a long wait. And a head examination. You might have a concussion.
