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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! We are rolling right along with another day of picks here. Tonight, there are eight games on the NBA schedule after only having five last night. The biggest game to keep an eye on tonight is the Boston Celtics hosting the Milwaukee Bucks. This will be a good test for the top two seeds in the East to see how they match up against each other as we approach the playoffs.
I split my two picks last night. The Nets failed to cover the 7.5-point spread at home against the Pelicans. My win came with the Orlando Magic going over their team total. The number was set at 107.5, and they hit that with 4:19 left in the fourth quarter. The split now makes my record 26-15 since the All-Star break.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, March 20. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Indiana Pacers (-9) at Detroit Pistons (232.5 total)
The Pacers come into this game after a bad home loss to the short-handed Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday night. Cleveland was playing without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Max Strus and beat the Pacers as 6.5-point underdogs, 108-103. Indiana jumped out to a 34-25 first quarter, and I'm hoping they do the same tonight, because that's where I'm taking them.
All the recent trends would tell me to take the Pistons in the opening quarter, but I'm going the other way with it. Detroit is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 first quarters at home. Indiana is only 4-6 in their last 10 and 13-20-1 on the season. What I'm leaning on here is some urgency from the Pacers, specifically their leader, Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton has been struggling lately, and the first-time All-Star acknowledged his rough stretch in the postgame presser Monday night.
Hali had success against division rivals when they squared off in Indiana on February 22. In the first quarter of that game, the Pacers point guard had 11 points and five assists in eight minutes. According to FantasyPros, the Pistons give up the second-most points per game to point guards.
It sounds like a good matchup for Haliburton to be aggressive early and restore some confidence. Indiana has had the 10th-ranked offensive rating to start games this season, and they won the first quarter 42-25 the last time these teams played. In their last five road games, the Pacers are only averaging 23.4 points in the first quarter. I believe they are better than this, and this is the first quarter of a very critical road trip for them.
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) March 19, 2024
The Pick: Pacers First Quarter -2.5 (-125 ESPN BET)
Memphis Grizzlies (+11) at Golden State Warriors (219 total)
Similar to the Pacers, I'm looking for the Warriors to get off to a quick start in this game. On Monday, I took the Grizzlies to cover the 3.5 first-quarter line on the road in Sacramento. They didn't need the points, winning 32-28 outright. It was to pick up the win, but I don't love the way they did it. The Kings held a 26-21 lead with 2:55 left in the quarter. Memphis would then outscore them 11-2 over the next three minutes, hitting three three-pointers in the process. The Grizzlies happened to get hot, while the Kings couldn't put the ball in the hoop. I don't love the sustainability of that.
Desmond Bane is back for the Grizzlies, and they have covered the first quarter in their last two games. The 29.5 points they've averaged are good, but Memphis is only shooting 39.5 percent on FGAs. From three, they have hit 11-of-24 (45.8%) attempts, but Golden State is averaging the second-most first-quarter threes, so I think they can counter.
Memphis has taken nine free-throw attempts in each of their last two first quarters. In February, the Phoenix Suns led the NBA in first-quarter free-throw attempts at 6.4 per game. I don't like the sustainability of Memphis getting to the line that frequently in the opening quarter. Less free throws would mean more FGAs, and they haven't shot well.
The Warriors had a poor start against the Knicks on Monday night, losing the first quarter 30-22. Golden State is still 7-3 ATS to start their last 10 home games. I'm expecting a Stephen Curry and the Warriors bounceback tonight. That should all start with a good opening quarter.
Steph triple threat 👌
📺 @NBCSAuthentic pic.twitter.com/hF0ZRO6cFJ
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) March 19, 2024
The Pick: Warriors First Quarter -3.5 (-106 FanDuel)
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Utah Jazz (+15) at Oklahoma City Thunder (232 total)
Another day, another team total pick. Tonight, I'm taking the Utah Jazz's team total under. Utah has been a solid offensive team, averaging 115 points in eight games in March. They are shooting 48 percent on FGAs and 37.2 percent from three. Despite the decent offensive stats, they only scored 104 points at home against the Timberwolves on Monday night.
The Jazz now go on the road to play a good defensive Thunder team. Oklahoma City plays at a fast pace and still maintains a good defense. They are in the top seven for pace among home teams, but they also give up the 10th-fewest points per game among home teams. A concern for a fast-playing team would be that they sacrifice defense for offense. The Thunder do it on both sides of the ball without letting one affect the other.
In March, OKC is allowing the third-fewest FGAs and the ninth-fewest three-point attempts. They also rebound well and limit fast-break opportunities. Utah's effort on Monday against a Timberwolves team playing without Rudy Gobert was not encouraging. The Jazz are the best team at home, going over their team total with a 24-11 record. On the road, it's been a different story. When Utah leaves the Delta Center, they are 15-17-1.
Everyone getting involved for this Shai tre 🤝 pic.twitter.com/kTuphpKDD1
— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) March 17, 2024
The Pick: Jazz Team Total Under 108.5 (-118 FanDuel)
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