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These four rookies who surged in September 2022 may be sleeper candidates for the 2023 MLB season. Keep these breakouts in mind in your Fantasy Baseball drafts!
In 2022, we saw the MLB debuts of several up-and-coming top fantasy baseball prospects: Julio Rodríguez, Michael Harris II, Adley Rutschman, and Spencer Strider...to name a few. However there were many more "under-the-radar" prospects who produced quality rookie campaigns, and surged in September as a potential preview of what is to come in 2023.
These are hitters and pitchers who may not have produced at the level of Rodríguez or Strider, but finished the season on a high note, thus making them possible fantasy baseball sleepers for the 2023 fantasy baseball season. The average ADP of Rodríguez, Harris II, Rutschman, and Strider is 27.2, while the names listed below produce an ADP of 82.9. That doesn't mean the talent and production isn't there, though.
So, when you're preparing to draft this year, keep an eye out for these names. They just may surprise you by being even better during their sophomore seasons.
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Jake McCarthy, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Jake McCarthy turned in a fine rookie campaign in 2022, which he capped off with a second-half surge. The 25-year-old batted .300 with a .786 OPS across his final 64 games. The former first-round pick in 2018 reached base at a .331 clip in September, and nabbed 11 stolen bags, with 21 bases in total during the second half.
McCarthy drove in 12 runs during the final month of the season as well, along with six walks. Although the Scranton, Pa., native didn’t hit for power–swatting just two home runs–and struck out 26 times in September, the rookie still proved to be a potential sleeper for 2023.
Upon looking at McCarthy’s Savant page, you'll see a lot of blue. He reached base, but it appears he may have been getting lucky with some of his hits rather than making quality, hard contact. Still, his speed makes him valuable–ranking in the 98th percentile–and he should be a staple to Arizona’s starting lineup this season.
He finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting behind only Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, and Brendan Donovan. If McCarthy can access his power stroke, he could be a worthy addition to fantasy rosters in 2023.
George Kirby, SP, Seattle Mariners
Kirby, 25, played a significant role in the Seattle Mariners’ playoff push in August and September last season. In his final 11 starts, the former top prospect posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.91 FIP.
He allowed just one home run, 11 walks, and struck out 60 batters in 56 ⅔ innings of work. The New York native was even better in the postseason, not allowing a run in two appearances, including a seven-inning shutout performance against the Houston Astros in the ALDS. Unfortunately for Kirby, Seattle lost the 18-inning showdown, 1-0.
Although Kirby struggled with allowing too much hard contact during his rookie year, when he was on, he was on. Kirby’s dominant start against the Astros in his first taste of the postseason is certainly reason to be optimistic about the right-hander. His pitch arsenal is simply too good for him to not succeed at the major league level, making him a starter to keep in mind when drafting in 2023.
Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
A highly-touted pitching prospect prior to his debut, Nick Lodolo didn’t disappoint in his rookie year. Although his Cincinnati Reds were long out of the postseason picture, the 25-year-old pitched to a 2.48 ERA in September, and held batters to a .176/.270/.352 slash line across six starts. His 49 K’s in 36 ⅓ innings helped to place him in the 87th percentile in K%.
The Texas Christian University product slots into the Reds’ rotation with fellow second-year starter Hunter Greene, also looking to continue a compelling rookie campaign.
Lodolo’s strongest pitch is his curveball, fanning 65 batters with the pitch for a PutAway% of 26.4, and ranking in the 83rd percentile in Curve Spin. Lodolo undoubtedly has the stuff and is a lock as a sleeper candidate for the 2023 season.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Oneil Cruz seemed to finally put it all together in September during his rookie year. The Pirates’ shortstop slugged .525 and hit for a .359 OBP, resulting in an impressive .884 OPS.
He mashed six home runs and collected 19 RBI, stole five bags, and walked 12 times. Cruz ranked in the 100th percentile in Max Exit Velocity, 91st in Avg Exit Velocity, and 81st in HardHit% in 2022.
There’s no shortage of power in his bat for the 24-year-old, and he’s fast on the base paths (98th percentile in Sprint Speed) and has a cannon of an arm, too (97th percentile in Arm Strength).
All of this and more put Cruz on everyone’s radar in 2022, but due to his youth, strikeout rate, and the abundance of talented shortstops in the game, he might not be coming off the board quickly. He could be a solid, inconspicuous pick-up in 2023.
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