December 2, 2017

Measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data. Addison Hayes uses standard deviation of weekly fantasy point data to find starters for Week 13.

This is one of the most important weeks in the entire fantasy football season. It's Week 13, the final week of the fantasy regular season (for most leagues).

For some of you, you might already be cruising into the playoffs or looking forward to next year. But for others, myself included in a couple leagues, are fringe playoff teams already in win or go home mentality. Now, more than ever, consistency is extremely important in your lineups, as one bust could send you packing.

For this article, every position will be sorted by my Consistency Rating (COR). If you missed last week’s article, I introduced COR as a single number to power rank players based on ceiling and standard deviation, so the higher the COR, the “better” the player is in terms of consistency and ceiling.

Quarterbacks

At the quarterback position, I would like to highlight two QBs who are right next to each other in COR. Jared Goff and Philip Rivers have emerged as potential league winners at the QB position. Both players are currently averaging about 17 points per game and have nearly identical standard deviations and CORs. What makes both quarterbacks even more attractive for the fantasy playoffs is their schedules. Goff takes on the Cardinals this week, who have given up seven top-12 performances to quarterbacks this season, then takes on the Eagles at home, in Seattle (ouch), but then plays the Titans in Week 16. As for Rivers, he plays Cleveland at home this week, then the Redskins, Chiefs, and Jets in Week 16. With how these two have been performing recently, I expect that production to continue through the fantasy playoffs, and would not be surprised to see a lot of championship rosters have either Rivers or Goff as their quarterback.

Running Backs

What has happened to Kareem Hunt? After his start to 2017, fantasy owners were ready to pay the farm to acquire him, especially in dynasty. But recently, Hunt has struggled mightily, only eclipsing 50 rushing yards twice since Week 5 and he hasn’t found the endzone since Week 3. For fantasy, Hunt has only broken double-digits twice in the past four weeks, but has never scored more than 11 points in that span. He has fallen far down the consistency rankings and is middle of the pack in COR among running backs.

While most Hunt owners are probably done with him for this season, it is hard to bench a player like Hunt, who is still receiving volume in the running and passing game. We have also seen what he can do when he hits. On top of that, his schedule for the fantasy playoffs is pretty favorable. He plays the Jets this week, then at home for Weeks 14-16 against the Raiders, Chargers, and Dolphins, all of which are top-10 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. I still believe Hunt should be played in most fantasy lineups, despite his recent struggles. If he can find the end zone again, Hunt will automatically become a weekly high-RB2 or low-end RB1 given his floor from the receiving game and volume. His expectations need to be dropped for fantasy, but he should not be benched for the remainder of the season. A regression to the mean may work in Hunt’s favor in the fantasy playoffs.

Wide Receivers

I first started experimenting with the idea of using standard deviation as a method of measuring consistency during the summer. What sparked my curiosity in measuring consistency was actually Brandin Cooks. If you remember last year, Cooks was one of the most volatile players in fantasy with the Saints. He was the literal definition of a boom-bust player the entire season. After his move to New England, I was even less attracted to Cooks as an elite fantasy asset because he would be joining an already crowded receiving corps of Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell, and all 317 running backs the Patriots have rostered. I was not on board with Cooks as a WR1 in fantasy.

Fast forward to Week 13 of the 2017 season, and Cooks has been fairly consistent throughout the season. He started the season pretty rough, but since Week 5, Cooks has ben one of the most consistent wide receivers in fantasy (5.75 std. dev.). In fact, Cooks has the 6^th highest COR (62.99) since Week 5 among receivers. With Edelman out all season and now Hogan as well, Cooks has been a stable and consistent option in the passing game for Tom Brady and should remain that way throughout fantasy playoffs.

Tight Ends

There is one tight end on this chart that I feel is not getting the love he should because of injury. CJ Fiedorowicz has missed almost the entire season being on the IR due to concussions after Week 1. However, people forget his 8.6-point performance in Week 1 with four catches for 46 yards. In his three games back, Fiedorowicz has improved every week in fantasy, scoring 3 points in Week 10, 3.8 in Week 11, and 7.7 last week. I am not advocating to start him during the fantasy playoffs, but he is name to be monitored for the remainder of the season. He saw eight targets last week and is quickly carving out an increased role in the Texans offense. He plays the Titans and the 49ers over the next two weeks and could quickly become a hot waiver-wire name in that time span.

In dynasty, I believe Fiedorowicz is a great buy-low as a stash for next season. With Deshaun Watson returning next year, Fiedorowicz could become a very active part of the Texans passing game. Ryan Griffin averaged over eight points per game through Weeks 3-6 with Watson this season. If your league’s deadline has not passed yet, I would send some offers to the Fiedorowicz owner. As a stash play for next season, you could do much worse.

Flex

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